dust this off, jesus... Politics, but silly, too.
I had an Epiphany this morning.
I was reading an article discussing Trump's claim that Middle Eastern Refugees would be Secret Terrorists and Kill you and Rape your mom and kick your dog, and so on. The article then cited a study. http://www.vox.com/2016/9/13/12901950/terrorism-immigrants-clothes that one. (By the Cato institute, a Libertarian-leaning group, not exactly bleeding heart Dems) It looked at the likelihood of ACTUALLY being killed by a refugee who's a terrorist in disguise...
1 in 3.6 BILLION.
Now, Being a scientist, i Immediately said "we can do something with this" and looked at a comparison with another number.
There are something like a dozen allegations of The Donald making sexually aggressive overtures against women currently in the media.
The common wisdom is that 90% of cases go unreported, so it's not outside the bounds of reason to assume that there's 100 people out there who he's assaulted in this way. Not savory, certainly, but also way within the bounds of reason, given the Candidate's own claims from video in 2005, and other indications that this was pretty standard behavior for him.
there are 320 million people in the US. that works out to 1 victim in 3.2 Million people. Compare this with a 1 in 3.6 BILLION chance of being killed by a refugee terrorist.
YOU ARE MORE THAN 1000 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN ASSAULTED BY DONALD TRUMP HIMSELF THAN TO BE KILLED BY A REFUGEE TERRORIST.
Wait, since The Donald only goes after The Ladies, while the terrorists don't discriminate, if you're female, that's more than TWO THOUSAND TIMES MORE LIKELY.
Fear of Rare Events is something human beings are Super Bad at grasping intuitively. It's important to put things in the proper perspective. yay math.
I was reading an article discussing Trump's claim that Middle Eastern Refugees would be Secret Terrorists and Kill you and Rape your mom and kick your dog, and so on. The article then cited a study. http://www.vox.com/2016/9/13/12901950/terrorism-immigrants-clothes that one. (By the Cato institute, a Libertarian-leaning group, not exactly bleeding heart Dems) It looked at the likelihood of ACTUALLY being killed by a refugee who's a terrorist in disguise...
1 in 3.6 BILLION.
Now, Being a scientist, i Immediately said "we can do something with this" and looked at a comparison with another number.
There are something like a dozen allegations of The Donald making sexually aggressive overtures against women currently in the media.
The common wisdom is that 90% of cases go unreported, so it's not outside the bounds of reason to assume that there's 100 people out there who he's assaulted in this way. Not savory, certainly, but also way within the bounds of reason, given the Candidate's own claims from video in 2005, and other indications that this was pretty standard behavior for him.
there are 320 million people in the US. that works out to 1 victim in 3.2 Million people. Compare this with a 1 in 3.6 BILLION chance of being killed by a refugee terrorist.
YOU ARE MORE THAN 1000 TIMES MORE LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN ASSAULTED BY DONALD TRUMP HIMSELF THAN TO BE KILLED BY A REFUGEE TERRORIST.
Wait, since The Donald only goes after The Ladies, while the terrorists don't discriminate, if you're female, that's more than TWO THOUSAND TIMES MORE LIKELY.
Fear of Rare Events is something human beings are Super Bad at grasping intuitively. It's important to put things in the proper perspective. yay math.