Election '04
Here is my prediction for the result of the US Presidential Election 2004.
John Kerry will be elected 44th President of the USA.
I have no great confidence in this prediction, but there are several things that point me in that direction.
1. Polls show a tied race, and historically the challenger (Kerry) usually gets more votes than polls expect. The incumbent on the other hand, usually gets about what the polls expect. Based on this, I am predicting Kerry to win 50% of the vote, Bush 48-49% and others at 1-2%.
2. Turnout will be important in this election. Democrats have registered significantly more new voters this time than the republicans. Bush is also someone who inspires such hatred amongst Democrats that they will be inspired to come out and vote more. This should further add to Kerry's margin, and tip the balance in the larger states.
3. Since polling began, a tied race has always meant that the challenger (Kerry), not the incumbent (Bush) has won. This has ALWAYS happened. No exceptions. Admittedly there haven't been that many elections with tied final polls.
I will conclude with a warning that there are far too many unknown variables to be able to make a confident prediction, and that I am an eternal optimist, and hence am probably biased. But based on the data I can see, I think a Kerry victory is the most likely outcome tomorrow morning.
(PS, I have been studying this election for 2 years, and this is all i have to show for it. I'd better be right).
John Kerry will be elected 44th President of the USA.
I have no great confidence in this prediction, but there are several things that point me in that direction.
1. Polls show a tied race, and historically the challenger (Kerry) usually gets more votes than polls expect. The incumbent on the other hand, usually gets about what the polls expect. Based on this, I am predicting Kerry to win 50% of the vote, Bush 48-49% and others at 1-2%.
2. Turnout will be important in this election. Democrats have registered significantly more new voters this time than the republicans. Bush is also someone who inspires such hatred amongst Democrats that they will be inspired to come out and vote more. This should further add to Kerry's margin, and tip the balance in the larger states.
3. Since polling began, a tied race has always meant that the challenger (Kerry), not the incumbent (Bush) has won. This has ALWAYS happened. No exceptions. Admittedly there haven't been that many elections with tied final polls.
I will conclude with a warning that there are far too many unknown variables to be able to make a confident prediction, and that I am an eternal optimist, and hence am probably biased. But based on the data I can see, I think a Kerry victory is the most likely outcome tomorrow morning.
(PS, I have been studying this election for 2 years, and this is all i have to show for it. I'd better be right).