Elections 2012
Its been a while (a long while actually). Having followed the 2012 elections as best I could, I want to make my predictions before any exit poll or actual results come out. Putting it out there is one way of finding out if I am any good at this. :)
OK. Lets begin.
Electoral College
Firstly I think all this talk of Romney having a chance in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is just dumb media talk to keep us interested in watching them. County-wise analysis and math says that Obama should win these. I think Obama will win Nevada too quite comfortably. The trend of shifting demographics in Clark County will ensure his victory there. So based on my above statements, Obama should be at 253. Romney, I believe, will definitely get Indiana and North Carolina(both will switch from Obama-2008), Missouri (won't be as close as 2008) & Arizona. That would leave Romney at 206.
So we have Obama (253) and Romney (206) and then Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. 6 tossup states. Here is my take on them.
Ohio(18) - Obama will win it (the auto industry bailout has to have an effect). He should win it at least by a 1% margin. This will take him to 271 :). Do we need to discuss any further ? Why not ? :)
Virginia(13) - Though Ohio will be the state delivering the victory for Obama, the state to watch should be Virginia. If early results come in and they are strong for Obama and it looks like he is going to win the state or even come close to a tie, then nationally it would mean that Obama is going to win comfortably. So watch out for Virginia. If early results are very good for Obama, the switch off your TV. You know the result and you don't have a new president. But if Romney comes up strong in early counting here, then get your popcorn. You are in for a thriller nationally. But I doubt it will happen. So I am going for Obama here.
Colorado(9) - It will be close. I think this will be closest race in the country. No guesses.
New Hampshire(4) - Obama will sneak through here.
Florida(29) - Contrary to what the polls are saying, I do believe that Obama will win here. But if early results from Virginia are good for Romney then I would say Romney will win Florida too. If Romney does win, it will be through the slimmest of margins. But ultimately, Florida's results won't matter.
Iowa(6) - Obama should win it with a 3% margin or more.
Popular vote
I think the popular vote will be pretty close this time. An energized Republican base, lower turnout in Democratic strongholds like NY and NJ due to Sandy will make it look like a close contest if you look at the final popular vote. But the electoral college will decisive for Obama.
Now we wait :)
OK. Lets begin.
Electoral College
Firstly I think all this talk of Romney having a chance in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is just dumb media talk to keep us interested in watching them. County-wise analysis and math says that Obama should win these. I think Obama will win Nevada too quite comfortably. The trend of shifting demographics in Clark County will ensure his victory there. So based on my above statements, Obama should be at 253. Romney, I believe, will definitely get Indiana and North Carolina(both will switch from Obama-2008), Missouri (won't be as close as 2008) & Arizona. That would leave Romney at 206.
So we have Obama (253) and Romney (206) and then Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire. 6 tossup states. Here is my take on them.
Ohio(18) - Obama will win it (the auto industry bailout has to have an effect). He should win it at least by a 1% margin. This will take him to 271 :). Do we need to discuss any further ? Why not ? :)
Virginia(13) - Though Ohio will be the state delivering the victory for Obama, the state to watch should be Virginia. If early results come in and they are strong for Obama and it looks like he is going to win the state or even come close to a tie, then nationally it would mean that Obama is going to win comfortably. So watch out for Virginia. If early results are very good for Obama, the switch off your TV. You know the result and you don't have a new president. But if Romney comes up strong in early counting here, then get your popcorn. You are in for a thriller nationally. But I doubt it will happen. So I am going for Obama here.
Colorado(9) - It will be close. I think this will be closest race in the country. No guesses.
New Hampshire(4) - Obama will sneak through here.
Florida(29) - Contrary to what the polls are saying, I do believe that Obama will win here. But if early results from Virginia are good for Romney then I would say Romney will win Florida too. If Romney does win, it will be through the slimmest of margins. But ultimately, Florida's results won't matter.
Iowa(6) - Obama should win it with a 3% margin or more.
Popular vote
I think the popular vote will be pretty close this time. An energized Republican base, lower turnout in Democratic strongholds like NY and NJ due to Sandy will make it look like a close contest if you look at the final popular vote. But the electoral college will decisive for Obama.
Now we wait :)