NCIS thoughts
Not even fannish shipping, but what I see on the show. As in--I really don't think Tony wants to be with Ziva, and I think the show is supporting that.
Now, the season finale might pull a 180 and the two of them might wander off into the sunset and have a litter of kittens and puppies, but so far I'm not seeing it at all. I've always felt that Tony hasn't been interested in her that way, but these last three episodes cemented that feeling. Is Ziva interested in Tony? Hell yeah. Does Tony care about Ziva? Yes. Has he thought about fucking her? OMG yes. But is it more than that? I really don't think so. I mean, we saw him head over heels for Jeanne, and how heartbroken he was after that. And maybe he's considered it with Ziva, but just doesn't want to get hurt again. I think it's more that he doesn't like the way she thinks she can control him, and that he's never been quite sure if he can trust her, or that she trusts them. (Let's not forget that Ari was her brother. For the most part everyone on the team is good at taking people on their own terms, but how deeply buried is that little sliver of knowledge? Does it stab at any of them every now and then?)
For all of Ziva's teasing Tony about jealousy, he's never really bitten. Never really gotten flustered. And the flat-eyed way he's repeatedly confronted her the past few episodes? That is Tony getting down to business. He doesn't have time for romance/flirting crap. He needs to know that the team is safe, that Ziva herself is safe--and you know, I'm pretty damn sure he wants to know that his country is safe, because his job is actually important to him.
Tony's suspicions got validated several times by McGee two episodes ago, and then last night we finally got that all-important support from Gibbs. Tony asking Gibbs "I'm not alone here, right?" very clearly said to me that it's not about a love interest. It's about team interest and case interest, and Gibbs agreed with him.
Maybe MW has just decided to play Tony's attraction super-close to the vest. Possible. But it doesn't feel like that to me--and I'm quite happy with that.