Hard to say....I've only seen three of the five nominees this year (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Reader (sadly dubbed), and Slumdog Millionaire), and all three were great. I think it'd be between Benjamin Button--which I absolutely adored for its emotion, drama, humor, incredible special effects, historical settings, excellent acting, romantic and beautiful love story, and epic scale--and Slumdog Millionaire--which likewise had quite a beautiful love story (you can see the shipper in me coming out, lol), lots of emotion, drama, humor and excellent acting, as well as and interesting peek into life in the slums of India--it's incredible to think of all that still happening in modern times to me....I think either of those two deserves to win (and I know that Slumdog probably will based on what it's already won, and it'd be nice if it did based on its content and such), and would be happy if either did, though I think I might like BB ever so slightly more--it affected me more at the very least. In any case, this is not like last year's Oscars where there was one clear deserved winner for BP--"There Will Be Blood"....
Man, am I sad and disappointed that I won't be able to see The Oscars this year--the television highlight of the year for me, my own Super Bowl (I don't give a damn about the real one), something I always look forward to all year, and which I have made a point to assiduously prepare for the last few years, seeing as many of the nominated movies as possible (I even made a point to see as many Oscar entries in the foreign film category this year as possible before there were even nominees or a shortlist), even this year when I won't even be able to see the ceremony live. It's always a better experience when you've seen/are familiar with the movies up for awards, and when you can truly express an opinion about them all....The last two years I successfully saw all of the BP nods, and 3/5 is still decent this year, especially considering how late many of the movies that came out ages ago in the US came out here.
Anyway, I think I will follow cleolinda's live blog this year and track my picks and what is happening that way, since she's always such fun to read (though sadly reading her blog will be no substitute for seeing the eye candy that is Hugh Jackman, lol), and I'll probably hunt for clips and such tomorrow...I may ask someone in the US to tape it for me and watch it sometime over the summer. At least I was able to get a minor fix for watching this kind of thing when I saw the Goyas (the Spanish version of the Oscars--they try hard, they really do, and it's kind of funny for it, but they end up failing to be as good as the Oscars--they are like a lamer version of the Oscars, though there were definitely some good Spanish movies up for awards...) in early February.
Oscar Whore that I am, I have many opinions/thoughts about other categories as well (almost all categories are important in my eyes), which I'll share here now:
Performance by an actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger (who no doubt will win, deservedly so, even if it won't help him now) or Phillip Seymour Hoffman (icredible, subtle performace)
Performance by an actor in a supporting role: Kate Winslet (it'd also be nice to see her win at last!)
Performance by an actress in a supporting role: This is probably the category I'm most in seeing who wins--there are several very strong candidates (and no indication from the Golden Globes since the winner there is nominated in a different category for the Oscars), especially among them Taraji P. Henson, Amy Adams, and Penelope Cruz--any one of them deserves it I think, though I bet Penelope will win, based on what she's won so far, and the fact that she really did make the movie with her wonderful and hilarious performance. Either way, the Spanish media will explode, with outrage (if she loses) or jubilation (if she wins)! :p
Achievement in art direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (they did a great job of painstakingly evoking so many different epochs of history in one movie)
Achievement in cinematography: Not Slumdog Millionaire is all I know--I was not a fan of the choppy camera-work and editing, it was hard to watch for me....it probably will win though, I bet SM will sweep most of its categories for being so popular.
Achievement in directing: See my best picture answer--though I also think Daldry for "The Reader" would be worthy just for making such a faithful adaptation of the book--which is always an achievement in itself!
Best foreign language film of the year: I've only seen two (Revanche and The Class--Walsh with Bashir only just opened here Friday and I just didn't have the time to see it), and from the Golden Globes I bet Walsh with Bashir will win. But from what I did see, "Revanche" (Austria) is also quite worthy of winning--it's a tight, engrossing thriller that leaves you thinking--and "The Class" (France) is not worthy of winning, or even of the nomination in the first place--while it was interesting to watch it would have been better as a documentary--as a film it has little plot nor sense of purpose, and the ending was extremely weak and lame.
Achievement in makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button--though they were all worthy (as I saw each movie I thought "This is worthy of an Oscar makeup-wise), BB was in a league of its own in quality--I really did think it had to be a different actress in the beginning besides Cate Blanchett, the makeup was so damn convincing....and then there's Brad Pitt's aging and deaging, which was short of magical!
Original Score: Defiance--perhaps I'm a traditionalist (and hence wasn't as affected/impressed by the Slumdog soundtrack, etc), but I found this soundtrack to be the most memorable and beautiful and moving, especially with its use of strings....while I find WALL-E's soundtrack to just be cute and heartwarming. In soundtrack music I prefer the former....
Original Song: "O Saya" from Slumdog--I really like this song (I actually noted it positively while watching the movie too), more so than Jai Ho), it really added to the movie scene it was in, though I fear the WALL-E song will win because it's more traditional, and because in the last few years the movies with more than one song nominated have always lost....
Achivement in Visual Effects: Either the Dark Knight (more probable winner) or Benjamin Button (for the war scenes and for the CGI on Brad Pitt to make him look younger than he actually looks now!).
Adapted Screenplay: So hard, so many good ones, I'd be happy with any number of them winning--probably "Doubt" since it's so words-based, though I was also very happy with how faithful "The Reader" was to the book, as I've said...
Original Screenplay: I don't know, but I don't want WALL-E to win (I still don't agree necessarily with its nomination, even though it's bee explained to me better now)....even though I can see it winning since the movie is so popular....
In any case, we'll see! (Me after the fact, unfortunately!) Only what, a little over an hour now until the red carpet?