Hoophead

[shauntkuter]

Last night, after I did my reading, and instead of doing something productive, like clean the bathroom or get a life, I whipped out some paper and whipped up a mock 2008 NCAA Tournament Bracket.

Some points to accompany:

• 
  I didn't try to predict how it would look on Selection Sunday (March 16!). Instead, I made the bracket based on NCAA Committee Rules as if the season ended today.

• 
  Somewhat antithetically, I did not choose the conference champions based on who is leading the conference at the moment, as Lunardi and other bracketologists do. Instead, the conference champion is based on who has the highest ranking according to my system, which consists of input from the Sagarin rankings, RPI, Ken Pomeroy rnakings, and the AP poll. The reason for this is that even though many conferences have special advantages for their regular season champions, less than half of #1 seeds actually go on to win their conference tournaments. When in doubt, then, go with the best team.

• 
  This bracket is technically correct with respect to conference placement and team seeding. It is sloppy, though. I have four SEC/Big East matchups in the first round, which I'm pretty sure the Committee won't allow to happen. I can't find a way to avoid this, though, because of the muddle of mediocre teams at the 7-10 slots. And while there are no regular season rematches in the first or second rounds, there is the potential for a rematch that occurred in the 2007 Tournament to happen again in the second round (Memphis-Ohio State). There is no alternative that would avoid a regular season rematch, though, so it stays.

• 
  Tonight's Duke/North Carolina game is huge. The winner likely secures a #1 seed in the East, ensuring a Raleigh/Charlotte trip to the Final Four. The loser likely drops to a #2, where they might stay. The way they're looking, UCLA will snap up that last #1 and not give it up. It's the difference between choosing your own destiny and not knowing where you're ending up. The importance of this game (with Dickie V back, baby!) cannot be understated.

• 
  Finally, the South champion faces the West champion in the Final Four, and the Midwest faces the East. (Order of the #1 seeds: Memphis, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina)

Here is my bracket (bracket and records as of Tuesday):

South (Houston)
Little Rock - March 21, 23
(1) Memphis (21-0)
(16) Lafayette (14-8) / Alabama St (12-7) (play-in game, March 18, in Dayton)
(8) Ohio State (16-7)
(9) Nevada-Las Vegas (17-4)
Tampa - March 21, 23
(5) Connecticut (16-5)
(12) Mississippi St (14-7)
(4) Texas (17-4)
(13) George Mason (16-6)
Anaheim - March 20, 22
(6) Clemson (16-5)
(11) Dayton (15-5)
(3) Stanford (18-3)
(14) Nevada (13-8)
Omaha - March 20, 22
(7) Notre Dame (16-4)
(10) Vanderbilt (18-4)
(2) Wisconsin (18-3)
(15) Cornell (12-5)

West (Phoenix)
Raleigh - March 21, 23
(1) North Carolina (21-1)
(16) Hampton (13-7)
(8) Oklahoma (15-6)
(9) Rhode Island (19-3)
Denver - March 20, 22
(5) Pittsburgh (17-5)
(12) Brigham Young (17-5)
(4) Drake (21-1)
(13) Oral Roberts (15-5)
Little Rock - March 21, 23
(6) Texas A&M (19-4)
(11) Miami (FL) (15-6)
(3) Marquette (16-5)
(14) Rider (17-6)
Anaheim - March 20, 22
(7) Mississippi (16-4)
(10) Purdue (17-5)
(2) UCLA (20-2)
(15) Northern Arizona (14-8)

Midwest (Detroit)
Omaha - March 20, 22
(1) Kansas (22-1)
(16) Austin Peay (15-9)
(8) West Virginia (16-6)
(9) Florida (18-4)
Tampa - March 21, 23
(5) Indiana (18-3)
(12) Virginia Tech (14-9)
(4) Arizona (15-7)
(13) Ohio (15-6)
Washington, DC - March 20, 22
(6) St. Mary’s (19-3)
(11) Davidson (15-6)
(3) Xavier (18-4)
(14) UC Santa Barbara (16-5)
Birmingham - March 21, 23
(7) Southern California (14-7)
(10) Syracuse (16-7)
(2) Tennessee (19-2)
(15) MD Baltimore Co (15-7)

East (Charlotte)
Raleigh - March 21, 23
(1) Duke (19-1)
(16) Robert Morris (17-6)
(8) Louisville (17-6)
(9) Arkansas (16-5)
Denver - March 20, 22
(5) Kansas St (15-5)
(12) So Alabama (18-4)
(4) Washington St (17-4)
(13) Stephen F Austin (17-3)
Washington, DC - March 20, 22
(6) Butler (19-2)
(11) Oregon (13-8)
(3) Michigan St (19-3)
(14) NC-Asheville (18-4)
Birmingham - March 21, 23
(7) Gonzaga (17-6)
(10) Baylor (16-4)
(2) Georgetown (19-2)
(15) E Tennessee St (13-9)

Last Four In (at-large)
Miami (FL)
Mississippi St
Oregon
Virginia Tech

Last Four Out
St Joseph's
California
Illinois St
Massachusetts

Next Four Out
Creighton
Missouri
Maryland
Minnesota