Whatta NIGHT!
This whole Ohio mess has got my little number crunching heart perks so I decided to try and answer the question; CAN Kerry pull off a win?
So here we go, with 100% of the vote tallied Kerry is trailing Bush by 136,221 votes. That means Kerry NEEDS at least 136,222 votes to win and the more the better.
Per the Kerry Campain there are 250,000 provisional/absentee ballots left out there uncounted that could swing the vote
Per the OH Secretary of State, 135,149 provisional ballots have already been reported and about 25,000 left unreported final numbers pending. But the stated estimate is 175,000.
Now assuming that we follow the trend of 2000 and only 90% of these ballots are considered valid and thusly be counted we get these numbers:
Kerry Estimate: 225,000 votes
OH Estimate; 157,500 votes
So with a gap of 136,222 votes to close, Kerry needs the following percentage of the uncounted ballots in his favor in order to win;
Kerry Estimate; 61% minimum
OH Estimate; 86% minimum
Um…all I can say is, ow. *wince* That’s a pretty tough order to match, seeing that most of the numbers that came in all night were showing Bush maintaining a small, yet steady, lead over Kerry all night, even using his numbers he still needs to beat Bush by a 10% Margin in the remaining ballots, seeing he’s been lagging at a 2-3% that’s a tough climb to say the least. And that is IF 90% of the provisional ballots are considered legit and counted, lets see if 100% are counted…
Kerry Estimate; 54%
OH Estimate: 78%
Those are better, but that is IF all the provisional ballots are counted and IF Kerry’s Estimates on the remaining votes is accurate. Two pretty big IF’s in my opinion…
And checking CNN…looks like Kerry has conceded the election o_o;;; Wow, looks like he saw the numbers and decided against pushing it. Didn’t expect that to happen, thought he’d at least wait the 11 days stated by Ohio before the provisional ballots are counted.
SW