А между тем фед выложил стенограммы своих заседаний за 2007 год

[sergechaly]

Год собственно начала кризиса
Увлекательное чтение. Как настроение меняется от отрицания через обеспокоенность к тревоге и наконец панике.
FRB: FOMC: Transcripts and Other Historical Materials, 2007

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Plosser, in a September 2007 meeting right as the flames of counterparty risk are rising:

I think allowing the fed funds rate to trade so low for so long away from our target really creates a credibility problem for this Committee. It puts us in an awkward position now because, in effect, it hasn’t gone unnoticed by the investment community…

(That comes in an interesting bit on how the Fed targets rates - Dudley responds by noting then-new tools for the central bank, including the “new authority” for paying interest on excess reserves.)

Hoenig, at the recession tipping point in December 2007…

MR. HOENIG. David, in listening to this, I have a question. As you are looking at and projecting forward, we’re talking about a fed funds rate path that comes down, and yet we’ve talked a great deal about inflation rising temporarily in some views. The question I have is, Does it give you pause?

Geithner, already in October 2007:

I think that the underlying inflation numbers and the measures we use to capture underlying inflation do not suggest any meaningful acceleration in underlying inflation, and we still expect the core PCE to run at a rate below 2 percent over the forecast period. In some ways, though, the inflation outlook now feels a bit worse. It feels worse because of the modest rise in breakevens that we saw following our last meeting and because of sentiment in markets around gold, commodity and energy prices, and the dollar.