Jun 29, 2005 16:31
Blinds are at 25-50. I am SB, 6 players left. I've busted out 3 players and am generally running over the table, currently with ~4000 in chips. BB has ~1350 and is a straight forward player, button has ~2100 and has overplayed top pair twice so far.
Folded to dealer, he raises to 200. I call with KT diamonds, BB calls.
Flop comes Qd Ts 4s. (Pot 600)
I check, planning on check raising, and it is checked around.
Turn is Jd.
I lead out 250, BB min raises to 500, button reraises to 1300.
Pot has 2650, BB has an additional 650, dealer has 600 more, and I have 3550 left.
I hit the tank. From his body language, BB is obviously calling. I have to call 1050 more, so I am currently getting a little better than 2.5 : 1. Once the BB gets his 650 in, I am getting priced at 3.1 to 1. Button is committed, so I am certain if I hit I am getting that 600 on the river. So my thinking at the table was I am getting around 3.7 : 1 on the call, as I am freerolling dealer's last 600 since I can fold and save 600 if I don't improve.
I couldnt think of what hands dealer would check with on the flop and not try to pick it up, but would then put in a monster reraise on this turn. It was a coordinated flop that could definitely hit someone, and he didnt even take a stab at it. I thought he might be trying to trap with a monster. I put him on a set, two pair, or a hand like mine. He also could have hit his straight, but I thought it likely he would try and pick the pot up on the flop with the gutshot draw as a semibluff.
I counted my outs as follows:
There are 9 diamonds left. However, if the 4 of diamonds hits, it could easily make someone a boat, and it is likely with this action that I am up against a set from one of the players, so I discounted the 4 to only be a weak .5 outs.
There are 4 aces, 1 of which makes my flush, the spade giving me the straight but making the other flush, and the other two giving me the nut straight that splits with any K. It is possible that the initial reraise was by a hand like mine but of spades, so I gave myself 2 outs on the three Aces (the spade Ace loses value for making spade flush, plus potential for split pot from the clean aces).
For the nines, which would also make my straight, I gave myself 2 outs for the four remaining nines (diamond already counted, spade dirty, split with king).
That makes 8.5 diamond outs, 2 Ace out, 2 nine outs, making 12.5 outs total. I would need 3.7 : 1 to call.
Thoughts on this thought process?