Through a Tea Cup, Darkly
As I watch the Tea Party leaders trying to distance themselves from the angry, conspiracy-obsessed elements of their own group, I see hints of their ultimate fate. They will surely be a force in the 2010 elections, where Republicans will benefit from the movement's intensity (and candidates' ability to convincingly pay lip service to Tea Party ideals). After the GOP inevitably breaks their promises, I see three possibilities:
A) The leaders will get too cozy with the GOP in the interest of winning elections, and will succumb to the temptations of politics. They will start to compromise their principles, rationalizing politically expedient decisions, and before they know it all that talk of reducing the size of government will somehow become less urgent (the necessity of tax cuts, of course, will be preserved, i.e., they will become regular old Republicans.) The rank and file of the movement will split between the sellouts and the true believers, and the fracture will weaken them. Some will be absorbed back into the GOP, others will rant for a while then go home in disgust. A few of the true radicals will go off to join militias or will "go Galt", sort of the right's version of the hippie communes from the 70s.
B) The movement will remain true to their principles, and act as a spoiler for the GOP. Some people seem to think this is going to happen in 2010, but I think the GOP has enough hooks in the movement to contain them within the party for the moment. Only after the inevitable betrayal of principles ("Whaddaya mean your position on the Gold Standard has 'evolved?!!'") will they turn to a third party track. When they do that, it will of course split the vote on the right. By the time the Tea Party and the GOP unify, demographic shifts will have further weakened them.
C) The movement remains true to its principles, and miraculously, takes control. They lead a slate of populist libertarian candidates to power in 2010 and 2012. Through an unprecedented display of political discipline, the Tea Party Congress begins to enact their principles as law (likely wiping out the filibuster to get their way.) They propose legislation to repeal/change HCR, a constitutional amendment to balance the budget, cut taxes and spending broadly... and run smack dab into political reality. Proposals to cut entitlements erupt in vicious floor fights as individual reps realize that "fixing" Medicare and Social Security isn't as easy as it sounds. Mirroring their own movement, protests erupt over proposed cuts, made up of people from affected constituencies like teachers, nurses, retirees, etc. Construction of a border fence with Mexico enrages Latino voters. A confusing business platform - combining tax cuts for business with populist measures to break up big financial firms - results in chaos on Wall Street. A battle over budget cuts results in a partial shutdown of government. Political and economic chaos reigns.
Basically, no matter what happens, the Tea Party loses. It's only a question of whether the United States loses in the process.