It's all about earnings...
While the stock market is up since early March, the economy as well as corporate earnings continue to suffer. This S&P 500 earnings chart provides some historical perspective on the current economic decline. This chart illustrates that 12-month earnings as-reported have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative. What recovery?!?!