People who don't believe in global warming
I once read a review that said that Michael Crichton's "Big Theme" is the hubris of scientists. In most of his works, this is manifested in unexpected side effects of otherwise wonderful technologies: runaway dinosaurs, deadly nanites, etc. But in his latest "novel," State of Fear, he takes an altogether different tack, accusing scientists of making up such side effects in order to enhance their careers. The side effect Crichton claims to be faked is, of course, global warming.
Larry Niven, an author I have much greater respect for, also doesn't believe in global warming, because "the predictions have been flaky." Now, it's perfectly reasonable to view a theory as discredited if you don't think it has stood up to experiment, but what I find interesting is that these nonbelievers don't have much of an alternative theory to put in its place. The theory of the greenhouse effect is derived from basic chemistry and physics, and states simply that the current quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere should trap enough of the Sun's heat to result in warming. Since few would deny the chemical properties of these gases or dispute the measurements of their atmospheric concentrations, the nonbelievers are forced to claim that something is countering the effects of the greenhouse gases and preventing greenhouse warming from occurring.
As far as I can tell, the something that Niven has come up with is that the current interglacial period is coming to an end, and only our heroic polluting efforts are holding back the tide of ice that would otherwise be crushing our civilization. (See the "novel" Fallen Angels by Niven and Jerry Pournelle.) Not only does it seem awfully convenient timing for a multi-millenial cycle to enter a downswing during the century when our civilization's exponential growth and change curves are turning sharply upward, it also seems unlikely to me that anyone has made any tests of the Niven hypothesis. I might be willing to at least consider switching camps if I found out otherwise; it would also help to know for certain that the oil industry didn't bribe Crichton to write State of Fear.
P.S. Even if I did switch camps, I could still be an environmentalist, startlingly enough. An environmentalist who doesn't believe in global warming? Well, global warming is simply not a necessary condition for biosphere collapse. I used to have a nice flowchart describing all the contributing factors, but I lost it. Aargh.
Larry Niven, an author I have much greater respect for, also doesn't believe in global warming, because "the predictions have been flaky." Now, it's perfectly reasonable to view a theory as discredited if you don't think it has stood up to experiment, but what I find interesting is that these nonbelievers don't have much of an alternative theory to put in its place. The theory of the greenhouse effect is derived from basic chemistry and physics, and states simply that the current quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere should trap enough of the Sun's heat to result in warming. Since few would deny the chemical properties of these gases or dispute the measurements of their atmospheric concentrations, the nonbelievers are forced to claim that something is countering the effects of the greenhouse gases and preventing greenhouse warming from occurring.
As far as I can tell, the something that Niven has come up with is that the current interglacial period is coming to an end, and only our heroic polluting efforts are holding back the tide of ice that would otherwise be crushing our civilization. (See the "novel" Fallen Angels by Niven and Jerry Pournelle.) Not only does it seem awfully convenient timing for a multi-millenial cycle to enter a downswing during the century when our civilization's exponential growth and change curves are turning sharply upward, it also seems unlikely to me that anyone has made any tests of the Niven hypothesis. I might be willing to at least consider switching camps if I found out otherwise; it would also help to know for certain that the oil industry didn't bribe Crichton to write State of Fear.
P.S. Even if I did switch camps, I could still be an environmentalist, startlingly enough. An environmentalist who doesn't believe in global warming? Well, global warming is simply not a necessary condition for biosphere collapse. I used to have a nice flowchart describing all the contributing factors, but I lost it. Aargh.