Solar Solar Everywhere.... and not a drop to drink!
well i was chatting about this with my pals over at treehugger and we all agreed that this is quite the story and more people ought to know about it.
See the thing is that while we all love solar power, the supply has been eclipsed by demand and if you were going to decide on solar today (and have the +$20K to pay for it) you would be in for a rude awakening when your solar dealer tells you that the wait-period will be between 3 months and a year (!)
the problem it seems is that there is not enough silicon to go around... which totally sucks! Why you ask, would there be this dearth in supply in one of the hottest markets around? good question! In an industry that's been growing a steady 40% for over 10 years, why would no one notice the writing on the wall? Well, like most things. there were people warning about this crisis for over 10 years. natch. and guess who (aside from no one) listened? Well a few did, and will talk about them in a few seconds.... but before the solution, the problem:
In a tip of the hat to the "Three R's" the solar industry has been reusing and recycling semiconductor waste since they started strapping silicon onto aluminum frames... it's good business, they will almost pay the same price (well 2/3) as the semiconductor manufacturers for their waste (called "tops & bottoms" the cuttings from their chips). Problem is that this year demand finally grew to the point that there just isn't enough waste to go around... in fact the price of silicon waste has gone from $20/Kg to $40/Kg and in some situations has risen as high as $80/Kg (and when you think of it, a 150W solar panel has 3Kg silicon-- so the price of panels will probably rise before this problem has been rectified).
While i am totally into recycling waste, (heck even in the composting toilet world!)building an industry-- as important an industry as solar-- and basing it on a limited amount of waste product seems very silly. Also, semiconductor-grade silicon is like, 99.9999 pure. Solar-grade silicon (SoG-Si) doesn't have to be that pure. it could be made much cheaper than the computer silicon. This year PV Panel manufacturing gobbled up close to 7,000 Metric Tons of the stuff. And they say that the market demand is growing by 40% a year! And since 1996 people in the industry have been getting up on soapboxes and decrying the need for SoG-Si manufacturing. Pretty much calling into the wind. They say that this supply crisis will run through all of 2006. And then it will all change......
One reason it will change is because of two companies. SolarWorld in Germany, who is now operating a SoG-Si plant, and looking to expand it to 3,000 tons metric by 2006. Another group taking this very seriously is Washington State's Solar Grade Silicon Llc. SGS has been producing the only SoG-Si in North America since 2002. They're gearing up to manufacture around 5,000 MT/year up at their Moses Lake factory in WA. I want to raise a glass to these folks for taking initiative, and addressing a critical issue. There are some other very interesting chemical-free ways to produce SoG-Si, but the problem is that any technology you pluck and bring to market will require building a plant and training workers and so you are still looking at 2 years before you can pump this chem-free lower cost SoG-Si into the marketplace...
..another light at the end of the tunnel is NanoSolar. There are already a few players out in this field, Konarka has been making nanotube silicon-free solar ribbons for a few years now, i like them-- they make solar topped tents (i mean who doesn't need 2KW while out in the woods? ok maybe its good for armies and pot-growers, but i think it could be fun for many of us as well), then there's the uber-secretive NanoSys, and of course Google's Brin & Paige's Nanosolar who claim to be bringing solar down to $0.50/Watt!!!!! (right now to manufacture Silicon PV cost $3/Watt. Once you have it and install it it works out to about $7/WattUS). So, if it works out (and Brin/Paige say they will be able to produce 100MW (1/10 of US solar production)by 2006. So, it does look like we will have to wait till 2007 before everything starts to level out-- but the cool thing is that when it finally does, things will be more efficient, lighter and cheaper!
See the thing is that while we all love solar power, the supply has been eclipsed by demand and if you were going to decide on solar today (and have the +$20K to pay for it) you would be in for a rude awakening when your solar dealer tells you that the wait-period will be between 3 months and a year (!)
the problem it seems is that there is not enough silicon to go around... which totally sucks! Why you ask, would there be this dearth in supply in one of the hottest markets around? good question! In an industry that's been growing a steady 40% for over 10 years, why would no one notice the writing on the wall? Well, like most things. there were people warning about this crisis for over 10 years. natch. and guess who (aside from no one) listened? Well a few did, and will talk about them in a few seconds.... but before the solution, the problem:
In a tip of the hat to the "Three R's" the solar industry has been reusing and recycling semiconductor waste since they started strapping silicon onto aluminum frames... it's good business, they will almost pay the same price (well 2/3) as the semiconductor manufacturers for their waste (called "tops & bottoms" the cuttings from their chips). Problem is that this year demand finally grew to the point that there just isn't enough waste to go around... in fact the price of silicon waste has gone from $20/Kg to $40/Kg and in some situations has risen as high as $80/Kg (and when you think of it, a 150W solar panel has 3Kg silicon-- so the price of panels will probably rise before this problem has been rectified).
While i am totally into recycling waste, (heck even in the composting toilet world!)building an industry-- as important an industry as solar-- and basing it on a limited amount of waste product seems very silly. Also, semiconductor-grade silicon is like, 99.9999 pure. Solar-grade silicon (SoG-Si) doesn't have to be that pure. it could be made much cheaper than the computer silicon. This year PV Panel manufacturing gobbled up close to 7,000 Metric Tons of the stuff. And they say that the market demand is growing by 40% a year! And since 1996 people in the industry have been getting up on soapboxes and decrying the need for SoG-Si manufacturing. Pretty much calling into the wind. They say that this supply crisis will run through all of 2006. And then it will all change......
One reason it will change is because of two companies. SolarWorld in Germany, who is now operating a SoG-Si plant, and looking to expand it to 3,000 tons metric by 2006. Another group taking this very seriously is Washington State's Solar Grade Silicon Llc. SGS has been producing the only SoG-Si in North America since 2002. They're gearing up to manufacture around 5,000 MT/year up at their Moses Lake factory in WA. I want to raise a glass to these folks for taking initiative, and addressing a critical issue. There are some other very interesting chemical-free ways to produce SoG-Si, but the problem is that any technology you pluck and bring to market will require building a plant and training workers and so you are still looking at 2 years before you can pump this chem-free lower cost SoG-Si into the marketplace...
..another light at the end of the tunnel is NanoSolar. There are already a few players out in this field, Konarka has been making nanotube silicon-free solar ribbons for a few years now, i like them-- they make solar topped tents (i mean who doesn't need 2KW while out in the woods? ok maybe its good for armies and pot-growers, but i think it could be fun for many of us as well), then there's the uber-secretive NanoSys, and of course Google's Brin & Paige's Nanosolar who claim to be bringing solar down to $0.50/Watt!!!!! (right now to manufacture Silicon PV cost $3/Watt. Once you have it and install it it works out to about $7/WattUS). So, if it works out (and Brin/Paige say they will be able to produce 100MW (1/10 of US solar production)by 2006. So, it does look like we will have to wait till 2007 before everything starts to level out-- but the cool thing is that when it finally does, things will be more efficient, lighter and cheaper!