(no subject)
Due to circumstances beyond our control, the blogging did not, in fact, begin when we arrived home (we prefer the Royal We when using italics). This will be rectified in the coming months. In the meantime, however, we have a lot of cross-country driving to do. All we have to say is, It's been good, Philly, and we'll see you on the flip side.
The way I see it, Israel is like the slightly nerdy pale white kid who shows up one day on the public school playground. Everyone takes a shot at him, and as a result, he becomes an awesome fighter. The kids have generally learned to leave Israel alone, partly because of the almost psychotic nature of his attacks, and partly because he bought himself the largest switchblade on the market and now carries it with him at all times.
Kidnapping a few Israeli soldiers is like rabbit-punching Israel in the back of the neck. Everyone knows it is going to provoke an outrageously furious counter-attack, way out of line with the initial strike. You know how kids will irritate the loner child into a ball of mindless fury, then complain to the teacher when they get smacked? That's what Hamas and Hezbollah have done to Israel. "We only took a prisoner or two!" they exclaim to the Arab League, the UN, the EU, and whoever else will listen. "The Israeli response is totally disproportionate!"
Most of the world's response has been along the lines of the knowing parent. "You're right, Israel is crazy. But you knew that, because you made Israel that way. Why the hell would you provoke him if you knew you were going to get sliced up by that big crazy switchblade of his?"
There are geopolitical complexities not inherent in this extended analogy of recent current events, but I think the 'kids on a playground' model fits pretty well. Not every country or institution can call out Hezbollah and Hamas like that, but I guarantee you places like Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey - moderate Arab states - are saying to their buddies in Gaza and Lebanon, "Christ, you knew this would happen. You knew Israel would go nuts. Now you're getting smacked about the Levant, and we can do very little to help you, because you started this."
I also think the only reason that the fighting hasn't spread is because Israel still has so much whup-ass left that any other country that gets involved knows its going to get smacked, too. I really hope it stays that way. Israel has a history of moving into southern Lebanon and the Gaza strip to protect itself, so its recent actions aren't that out of line with what its done in the last twenty years. But anything more than that - attacking Syria directly, perhaps - would be much more worrying. And the fact that Bush and Olmert have both fingered Syria and Iran as responsible for the kidnappings only speaks to how easily this thing could jump from what it is now - limited military action directed (at least ostensibly) only against Hamas and Hezbollah nerve centers - to a regional conflict more dangerous to the world than anything since...since World War II, I guess. I shit you not, this could go seriously bad in a matter of hours. Seriously bad.
The way I see it, Israel is like the slightly nerdy pale white kid who shows up one day on the public school playground. Everyone takes a shot at him, and as a result, he becomes an awesome fighter. The kids have generally learned to leave Israel alone, partly because of the almost psychotic nature of his attacks, and partly because he bought himself the largest switchblade on the market and now carries it with him at all times.
Kidnapping a few Israeli soldiers is like rabbit-punching Israel in the back of the neck. Everyone knows it is going to provoke an outrageously furious counter-attack, way out of line with the initial strike. You know how kids will irritate the loner child into a ball of mindless fury, then complain to the teacher when they get smacked? That's what Hamas and Hezbollah have done to Israel. "We only took a prisoner or two!" they exclaim to the Arab League, the UN, the EU, and whoever else will listen. "The Israeli response is totally disproportionate!"
Most of the world's response has been along the lines of the knowing parent. "You're right, Israel is crazy. But you knew that, because you made Israel that way. Why the hell would you provoke him if you knew you were going to get sliced up by that big crazy switchblade of his?"
There are geopolitical complexities not inherent in this extended analogy of recent current events, but I think the 'kids on a playground' model fits pretty well. Not every country or institution can call out Hezbollah and Hamas like that, but I guarantee you places like Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey - moderate Arab states - are saying to their buddies in Gaza and Lebanon, "Christ, you knew this would happen. You knew Israel would go nuts. Now you're getting smacked about the Levant, and we can do very little to help you, because you started this."
I also think the only reason that the fighting hasn't spread is because Israel still has so much whup-ass left that any other country that gets involved knows its going to get smacked, too. I really hope it stays that way. Israel has a history of moving into southern Lebanon and the Gaza strip to protect itself, so its recent actions aren't that out of line with what its done in the last twenty years. But anything more than that - attacking Syria directly, perhaps - would be much more worrying. And the fact that Bush and Olmert have both fingered Syria and Iran as responsible for the kidnappings only speaks to how easily this thing could jump from what it is now - limited military action directed (at least ostensibly) only against Hamas and Hezbollah nerve centers - to a regional conflict more dangerous to the world than anything since...since World War II, I guess. I shit you not, this could go seriously bad in a matter of hours. Seriously bad.