US House Elections - the Midwest
Following last week's preview of the West, this is the second of a four part survey of competitive seats in this year's election to the United States' House of Representatives.
This has the potential to be a breakthrough election for Democrats, who need 15 gains to take control of the House. However, as always in House elections, much will come down to the capacities of individual candidates in individual districts (in marked contrast to the UK), and as always even the party going forward will have some difficult defences.
(Yes, I know I promised a review of the Swedish general election... it's coming, it's coming...)
Colorado 3rd - this district covering the mountainous and sparsely settled western half of Colorado was carried by George Bush by a margin of almost 10%, but if Conservative Democrat and formidable campaigner John Salazar could win it in a Democrat annus horribilis like 2004, he will win again this year. Worth noting that Western Colorado, although an area with a significant Republican partisan lean, is tending towards the Democrats very rapidly. SAFE DEMOCRAT.
Colorado 4th - this district covers Colorado’s eastern plains, is staunchly conservative, and unlike the rest of the state, is becoming more so. Conservative Marilyn Musgrave is a hate figure for Democrats, and had a surprisingly close call against State Senator Stan Matsunaka last time, winning by 6% in a district that Bush cruised home in. Musgrave is a formidable fundraiser, despite her weakness in vote-getting, and I think she has enough juice in the tank to see of Democratic State House Chair Angie Paccione, although a few more favourable polls and I may change my mind. This is a seat that will go in a Democratic wave. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Colorado 7th - this moderate seat in the Denver suburbs has a slight Democratic lean, and with Republican incumbent Bill Beauprez running for Governor, this seat is open in a difficult year for the Republicans. Beauprez won this district by a mere 121 votes in the strong Republican year of 2002, and this strikes me as probably the best Democratic pickup opportunity anywhere this year. State Senator Ed Perlmutter won a nasty primary comfortably enough in the end, and should see off perennial Republican challenger for this seat, Rick O'Donnell. LEANS DEMOCRAT.
Illinois 6th - Republican Rep. since the dawn of time this seat in Chicago’s Western suburbs, Henry Hyde, is retiring. The Chicago suburbs have been trending Democrat for a long time now and this district only has a slight Republican lean - a Cook partisan index of just R +3%. Republican State Senator Peter Roskam and Democratic Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, the latter having survived a nasty primary battle with 2004 Dem challenger Christine Cegelis, are both spectacularly well funded. This will be a high cost campaign in an expensive media market and the direct mail is already getting unpleasant. Pointless trivia: unusually for a Republican, Roskam is a personal injury lawyer. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Illinois 8th - a district in Chicago’s wealthy northern suburbs, this one contains declining old suburban towns like Palatine as well as booming exurbs like McHenry, and has a small but significant Republican lean of 5%. Incumbent Centrist Democrat Melissa Bean snatched the seat from 18-term Republican incumbent Phil Crane in what was a generally bad Democratic year in 2004. There is a perception that Crane lost the seat more than Bean won it, and Republicans have high hopes that conservative David McSweeney can snatch the seat back. Both candidates are millionaires and have practically bottomless warchests. This will not be a good year for Republicans to knock out Democratic incumbents. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.
Illinois 10th - a compact seat nestled along Lake Michigan between Chicago’s City limits and the Wisconsin border, Centrist Republican Mark Kirk has had several comfortable wins despite the district’s slight (4%) Democratic lean. Democrat challenger and lefty blog wet dream Dan Seals looked like a longshot but has build up credibility and his bank balance and this is now winnable for Seals, although the percentages still face Kirk, who faces his toughest test since his narrow initial win in 2000. Kirk could finish the year as the last Republican Congressman in a Democrat-leaning suburban seat. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Illinois 11th - an odd T-shaped seat in North Central Illinois, stretching from Joliet to Bloomington without taking in much of the intervening territory, this particular gerrymander has produced a highly competitive seat with a virtual dead heat in partisan affiliation (Republican +1%). Incumbent Republican Jerry Weller is Deputy Majority Whip and is married to the daughter of former Guatemalan dictator, Efrain Rios Montt. Although I don’t how this would play in Peroia, I suspect it will not be a major factor in Bloomington or Joliet, although more recent American foreign policy fiascos might. Attorney John Pavich would become the youngest member of Congress if he won, but the odds still favour Weller. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Illinois 17th - Democrat incumbent Lane Evans decided not to seek re-election late in the campaign as a result of his ongoing battle with Parkinson’s Disease. This district is based on the Quad Cities and Quincy, with a bizarre gerrymander strip taking in parts of Springfield and Decatur. Evans’ decision caught both parties napping, but Democrat Phil Hare has a slight financial advantage over Republican Andrea Zinga. With a significant Democratic partisan lean to the district, Hare should be safe this year. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Indiana 2nd - Joe Donnelly was a blog wet dream in 2004 in this South Bend-based district, but ultimately his campaign against Chris Chocola, no slouch at running a ground war himself, fell foul of the Bush wave. This year’s rematch in this heavily industrial District will be closer than last time’s 55-45. Chocola has a huge warchest for a cheap district of $1.5 million but Donnelly is starting to attract significant national support, and Indiana, along with the Chicago and Philly suburbs and Connecticut, is becoming one of the ground-zeros of this year’s house campaign. Two polls have now shown challenger Donnelly in the lead. TOSS UP.
Indiana 8th - conservative Republican John Hostettler has never looked comfortable in this semi-rural district based on Terre Haute and Evansville, despite his six terms of incumbency and its strong Republican lean (9%). He has recently suffered a serious outbreak of foot-in-mouth disease and the Democrats have what might be the perfect challenger in Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Only might because he may or may not have been damaged by allegations that his sheriff’s department accidentally released a child abuser. Indiana’s ‘Bloody 8th’ once again lives up to its nickname. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Indiana 9th - Democrat Baron Hill is another Congressman who never quite looked safe in his district, in this case one including both deeply liberal Bloomington and the deeply conservative rural South East of the State. Still, Hill losing to Republican challenger Mike Sodrel in 2004 by just 0.5% was a bitter end to a terrible night for Democrats. There will be a rematch this year, and neither candidate really stopped campaigning after 2004. Despite the substantial Republican lean in the district (7%), my money is on Hill with the national wind at his back. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Iowa 1st - a non-partisan boundary committee makes Iowa’s congressional seats as competitive as possible, and with popular moderate Republican Jim Nussle running for Governor, this Davenport and Dubuque based district will host a battle royale. After competitive primaries in June, Republican restaurateur Mike Whalen will face Democratic lawyer Bruce Braley. Both candidates are getting plenty of assistance from Presidential hopefuls eager to meet future Iowa Caucus voters, but in a district that leans 5% Democratic, Braley must be slight favourite. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Iowa 2nd - Jim Leach is by many measures the most liberal Republican in the House of Representatives, and this has helped him survive in this district based on Iowa City and Cedar Rapids which has a significant (7%) Democratic lean. Liberal college professor Dave Loebsack is woefully undefended as not yet managed to get the DNC to shine their green light on him, and Leach is looking safer by the week. But if 2006 is a true wave election, this district is vulnerable to a Democratic takeover. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Iowa 3rd - almost a reverse of Iowa’s 2nd District, moderate five-term Democrat Leonard Boswell may be in trouble through a combination of ill-health and the inattentiveness that sometimes produces. State Senator Jeff Lamberti worked this seat from very early on, and was in a perfect position to take advantage of Boswell’s problems. In recent months Boswell’s health has improved as has his fundraising, but the RNC is committed to keeping Lamberti in the race and Boswell is not entirely out of the woods yet. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.
Kansas 2nd - this district contains all of Eastern Kansas outside the Kansas City suburbs, including state capital Topeka. Conservative Republican Jim Ryun has never looked in much trouble here, in a district with a significant but not overwhelming Republican lean. He faces a rematch with 2004 challenger, Republican-turned-Democrat Nancy Borda, who he defeated 56-41. Borda is clearly competent and might make this a race with serious national support, but that has not been forthcoming and she will likely lose by 6-8%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Kansas 3rd - moderate Democrat Dennis Moore has had his fair share of squeakers in this district in the suburbs of Kansas City with a small Republican lean (4%). However, challenger Chuck Ahner, a senior bank executive is underfunded and swimming against the tide. Expect this to be Moore’s most comfortable election yet. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Minnesota 1st - a long narrow district running the entire length of Minnesota’s border with Iowa, this was never particularly strong Democrat territory even at the height of the Farmer-Labour Party’s strength, but six term incumbent Gil Gutknecht is facing a strong challenge from retired National Guard soldier Tim Walz. Although this is practically a toss-up district in terms of partisan affiliation (R +1%), Gutknecht has deep pockets and should be safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Minnesota 2nd - two-term Republican incumbent John Kline has never faced a particularly strong challenge in this district in Minneapolis’ Southern suburbs. Democratic candidate and whistleblowing former FBI agent Coleen Rowley has managed to fight an awful campaign out of strong material and does not have deep pockets. Minneapolis’ suburbs have been trending Republican for some years and Kline is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Minnesota 6th - this district contains the Northern half of Minneapolis’ suburbs, and as well as being the heart of Jesse Ventura country, has been trending Republican in national elections for some time, and now has a Republican lean of 5%. Mark Kennedy’s retirement to run for Senate leaves the District open, meaning missing-children’s campaigner and Democratic candidate Patty Wetterling has a chance to improve on her 12% defeat in 2004. Republican Michelle Bachmann is hard-right on social issues, almost certainly too far to the right to ever be comfortable in this suburban district. This campaign is probably the nastiest House campaign in the US this year, with some brutal accusations and counter-accusations. Many are calling this a toss-up, I tend to think nastiness helps whoever is defending the status quo. If there’s a big Democratic wave, however, this will be swept in the national swing. LEANS REPUBLICAN.
North Dakota - seven term Democrat incumbent Earl Pomeroy will never be able to rest entirely easily in deep red North Dakota, whatever his personal popularity. But Matthew Mechtel is simply flying the flag for the Republican faithful, and Pomeroy will win with a more comfortable margin even than the 20% he managed last time. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Ohio 1st - there is enough Democratic strength in Cincinnati that Steve Chabot should never have been as comfortable as he has been - his district leans only 1% Republican. But he is a formidable campaigner. He faces a rematch against Cinci City Councillor John Cranley, whom he defeated 53-45 in 2004. Cranley is a strong vote-puller in Cinci local elections and while his funding does not quite match up to Chabot’s, it ain’t bad for a challenger who isn’t independently wealthy. This will go to the wire, Cabot’s proven ability to see off strong Democratic challenges makes me give him the slightest of edges at this point. LEANS REPUBLICAN.
Ohio 2nd - incumbent Jean Schmidt might be a fool, but this is solid Republican country, mainly in Cincinnati’s suburbs (R +13% partisan index), and Victoria Wulsin has little national backing. What Paul Hackett didn’t quite manage in last year’s special election, I can’t see Wulsin doing either, but Schmidt will underperform for as long as she represents this district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Ohio 6th - in a district with an even partisan split, Ted Strickland’s retirement to run for Governor should be causing Democrats problems. However, Democrat Charlie Wilson has bedded down well after an early cock-up left him having to fight a write-in campaign in his party’s primary, and I find it difficult to see Republican Chuck Bladsel pulling off an upset in this sprawling rural seat in South Eastern Ohio. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Ohio 13th Another Democrat in a potentially vulnerable House seat has picked the perfect moment to run for statewide office. Sherrod Brown is running for Senate and with a D +6% partisan index in this sprawling industrial seat running from Akron to Lake Erie, Betty Sutton should inherit the seat easily. Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin is a strong candidate, but this district sprawls and the national wind is not with him. I can’t see the 13th being unlucky for Democrats. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Ohio 15th - Republican Deborah Pryce has represented South Columbus and its suburbs for seven terms, but faces a stiff test against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy. Pryce is popular and has always out-performed her party but Columbus saw what was just about Kerry’s strongest performance in all of Ohio in 2004 and distance herself as she might, the mud spewing from Ohio’s state Republicans will cost Pryce some votes. With a practically even partisan breakdown (R +1%), Pryce will need all her personal popularity to pull her through, and it should do. Just. Both parties are dumping money into this race. LEANS REPUBLICAN.
Ohio 18th - scandal hit Republican Bob Ney quit this sprawling rural district in Eastern Ohio before the voters could do it for him. With a partisan index of R +6%, this is holdable for Republicans but not exactly safe. Republicans face a special primary on September 14th which is likely to anoint State Senator Joy Padgett - but will distract attention from the general, and she may be too close to Ney for the public’s liking. Democrat nominee, Zack Space, may has not been getting rave reviews but he may not need to to win. TOSS UP.
South Dakota - moderate Dem and Kos-kid pinup Stephanie Herseth has tacked perfectly into her district’s political wind and made herself very popular after her initial narrow special election win. They like popular moderate incumbents from political dynasties in the Dakotas, so expect Herseth’s 7% margin of victory last time to triple or even quadruple. Herseth will undoubtedly face closer elections in the future, but Republican Native American Bruce Whalen is a token candidate for the faithful to vote for. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Wisconsin 8th - Conservative Republican Mark Green assiduously courted this moderate district (R +4%) and had some massive wins - 70-30 in 2004 - but has now stood down to challenge Democratic Governor Jim Doyle. While John Gard looks to have the Republican primary sewn up, the Democrats are stuck in a brutal three-way fight which may deplete coffers beyond repair for whoever wins. It’s hard to read exactly what will happen in this Green Bay-based district until September 12th’s primary is out of the way, but the Democrats may be in the process of fluffing a perfect pickup opportunity. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
This has the potential to be a breakthrough election for Democrats, who need 15 gains to take control of the House. However, as always in House elections, much will come down to the capacities of individual candidates in individual districts (in marked contrast to the UK), and as always even the party going forward will have some difficult defences.
(Yes, I know I promised a review of the Swedish general election... it's coming, it's coming...)
Colorado 3rd - this district covering the mountainous and sparsely settled western half of Colorado was carried by George Bush by a margin of almost 10%, but if Conservative Democrat and formidable campaigner John Salazar could win it in a Democrat annus horribilis like 2004, he will win again this year. Worth noting that Western Colorado, although an area with a significant Republican partisan lean, is tending towards the Democrats very rapidly. SAFE DEMOCRAT.
Colorado 4th - this district covers Colorado’s eastern plains, is staunchly conservative, and unlike the rest of the state, is becoming more so. Conservative Marilyn Musgrave is a hate figure for Democrats, and had a surprisingly close call against State Senator Stan Matsunaka last time, winning by 6% in a district that Bush cruised home in. Musgrave is a formidable fundraiser, despite her weakness in vote-getting, and I think she has enough juice in the tank to see of Democratic State House Chair Angie Paccione, although a few more favourable polls and I may change my mind. This is a seat that will go in a Democratic wave. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Colorado 7th - this moderate seat in the Denver suburbs has a slight Democratic lean, and with Republican incumbent Bill Beauprez running for Governor, this seat is open in a difficult year for the Republicans. Beauprez won this district by a mere 121 votes in the strong Republican year of 2002, and this strikes me as probably the best Democratic pickup opportunity anywhere this year. State Senator Ed Perlmutter won a nasty primary comfortably enough in the end, and should see off perennial Republican challenger for this seat, Rick O'Donnell. LEANS DEMOCRAT.
Illinois 6th - Republican Rep. since the dawn of time this seat in Chicago’s Western suburbs, Henry Hyde, is retiring. The Chicago suburbs have been trending Democrat for a long time now and this district only has a slight Republican lean - a Cook partisan index of just R +3%. Republican State Senator Peter Roskam and Democratic Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth, the latter having survived a nasty primary battle with 2004 Dem challenger Christine Cegelis, are both spectacularly well funded. This will be a high cost campaign in an expensive media market and the direct mail is already getting unpleasant. Pointless trivia: unusually for a Republican, Roskam is a personal injury lawyer. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Illinois 8th - a district in Chicago’s wealthy northern suburbs, this one contains declining old suburban towns like Palatine as well as booming exurbs like McHenry, and has a small but significant Republican lean of 5%. Incumbent Centrist Democrat Melissa Bean snatched the seat from 18-term Republican incumbent Phil Crane in what was a generally bad Democratic year in 2004. There is a perception that Crane lost the seat more than Bean won it, and Republicans have high hopes that conservative David McSweeney can snatch the seat back. Both candidates are millionaires and have practically bottomless warchests. This will not be a good year for Republicans to knock out Democratic incumbents. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.
Illinois 10th - a compact seat nestled along Lake Michigan between Chicago’s City limits and the Wisconsin border, Centrist Republican Mark Kirk has had several comfortable wins despite the district’s slight (4%) Democratic lean. Democrat challenger and lefty blog wet dream Dan Seals looked like a longshot but has build up credibility and his bank balance and this is now winnable for Seals, although the percentages still face Kirk, who faces his toughest test since his narrow initial win in 2000. Kirk could finish the year as the last Republican Congressman in a Democrat-leaning suburban seat. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Illinois 11th - an odd T-shaped seat in North Central Illinois, stretching from Joliet to Bloomington without taking in much of the intervening territory, this particular gerrymander has produced a highly competitive seat with a virtual dead heat in partisan affiliation (Republican +1%). Incumbent Republican Jerry Weller is Deputy Majority Whip and is married to the daughter of former Guatemalan dictator, Efrain Rios Montt. Although I don’t how this would play in Peroia, I suspect it will not be a major factor in Bloomington or Joliet, although more recent American foreign policy fiascos might. Attorney John Pavich would become the youngest member of Congress if he won, but the odds still favour Weller. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Illinois 17th - Democrat incumbent Lane Evans decided not to seek re-election late in the campaign as a result of his ongoing battle with Parkinson’s Disease. This district is based on the Quad Cities and Quincy, with a bizarre gerrymander strip taking in parts of Springfield and Decatur. Evans’ decision caught both parties napping, but Democrat Phil Hare has a slight financial advantage over Republican Andrea Zinga. With a significant Democratic partisan lean to the district, Hare should be safe this year. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Indiana 2nd - Joe Donnelly was a blog wet dream in 2004 in this South Bend-based district, but ultimately his campaign against Chris Chocola, no slouch at running a ground war himself, fell foul of the Bush wave. This year’s rematch in this heavily industrial District will be closer than last time’s 55-45. Chocola has a huge warchest for a cheap district of $1.5 million but Donnelly is starting to attract significant national support, and Indiana, along with the Chicago and Philly suburbs and Connecticut, is becoming one of the ground-zeros of this year’s house campaign. Two polls have now shown challenger Donnelly in the lead. TOSS UP.
Indiana 8th - conservative Republican John Hostettler has never looked comfortable in this semi-rural district based on Terre Haute and Evansville, despite his six terms of incumbency and its strong Republican lean (9%). He has recently suffered a serious outbreak of foot-in-mouth disease and the Democrats have what might be the perfect challenger in Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Only might because he may or may not have been damaged by allegations that his sheriff’s department accidentally released a child abuser. Indiana’s ‘Bloody 8th’ once again lives up to its nickname. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Indiana 9th - Democrat Baron Hill is another Congressman who never quite looked safe in his district, in this case one including both deeply liberal Bloomington and the deeply conservative rural South East of the State. Still, Hill losing to Republican challenger Mike Sodrel in 2004 by just 0.5% was a bitter end to a terrible night for Democrats. There will be a rematch this year, and neither candidate really stopped campaigning after 2004. Despite the substantial Republican lean in the district (7%), my money is on Hill with the national wind at his back. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Iowa 1st - a non-partisan boundary committee makes Iowa’s congressional seats as competitive as possible, and with popular moderate Republican Jim Nussle running for Governor, this Davenport and Dubuque based district will host a battle royale. After competitive primaries in June, Republican restaurateur Mike Whalen will face Democratic lawyer Bruce Braley. Both candidates are getting plenty of assistance from Presidential hopefuls eager to meet future Iowa Caucus voters, but in a district that leans 5% Democratic, Braley must be slight favourite. LEANS DEMOCRATIC.
Iowa 2nd - Jim Leach is by many measures the most liberal Republican in the House of Representatives, and this has helped him survive in this district based on Iowa City and Cedar Rapids which has a significant (7%) Democratic lean. Liberal college professor Dave Loebsack is woefully undefended as not yet managed to get the DNC to shine their green light on him, and Leach is looking safer by the week. But if 2006 is a true wave election, this district is vulnerable to a Democratic takeover. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Iowa 3rd - almost a reverse of Iowa’s 2nd District, moderate five-term Democrat Leonard Boswell may be in trouble through a combination of ill-health and the inattentiveness that sometimes produces. State Senator Jeff Lamberti worked this seat from very early on, and was in a perfect position to take advantage of Boswell’s problems. In recent months Boswell’s health has improved as has his fundraising, but the RNC is committed to keeping Lamberti in the race and Boswell is not entirely out of the woods yet. LIKELY DEMOCRATIC.
Kansas 2nd - this district contains all of Eastern Kansas outside the Kansas City suburbs, including state capital Topeka. Conservative Republican Jim Ryun has never looked in much trouble here, in a district with a significant but not overwhelming Republican lean. He faces a rematch with 2004 challenger, Republican-turned-Democrat Nancy Borda, who he defeated 56-41. Borda is clearly competent and might make this a race with serious national support, but that has not been forthcoming and she will likely lose by 6-8%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Kansas 3rd - moderate Democrat Dennis Moore has had his fair share of squeakers in this district in the suburbs of Kansas City with a small Republican lean (4%). However, challenger Chuck Ahner, a senior bank executive is underfunded and swimming against the tide. Expect this to be Moore’s most comfortable election yet. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Minnesota 1st - a long narrow district running the entire length of Minnesota’s border with Iowa, this was never particularly strong Democrat territory even at the height of the Farmer-Labour Party’s strength, but six term incumbent Gil Gutknecht is facing a strong challenge from retired National Guard soldier Tim Walz. Although this is practically a toss-up district in terms of partisan affiliation (R +1%), Gutknecht has deep pockets and should be safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Minnesota 2nd - two-term Republican incumbent John Kline has never faced a particularly strong challenge in this district in Minneapolis’ Southern suburbs. Democratic candidate and whistleblowing former FBI agent Coleen Rowley has managed to fight an awful campaign out of strong material and does not have deep pockets. Minneapolis’ suburbs have been trending Republican for some years and Kline is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Minnesota 6th - this district contains the Northern half of Minneapolis’ suburbs, and as well as being the heart of Jesse Ventura country, has been trending Republican in national elections for some time, and now has a Republican lean of 5%. Mark Kennedy’s retirement to run for Senate leaves the District open, meaning missing-children’s campaigner and Democratic candidate Patty Wetterling has a chance to improve on her 12% defeat in 2004. Republican Michelle Bachmann is hard-right on social issues, almost certainly too far to the right to ever be comfortable in this suburban district. This campaign is probably the nastiest House campaign in the US this year, with some brutal accusations and counter-accusations. Many are calling this a toss-up, I tend to think nastiness helps whoever is defending the status quo. If there’s a big Democratic wave, however, this will be swept in the national swing. LEANS REPUBLICAN.
North Dakota - seven term Democrat incumbent Earl Pomeroy will never be able to rest entirely easily in deep red North Dakota, whatever his personal popularity. But Matthew Mechtel is simply flying the flag for the Republican faithful, and Pomeroy will win with a more comfortable margin even than the 20% he managed last time. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Ohio 1st - there is enough Democratic strength in Cincinnati that Steve Chabot should never have been as comfortable as he has been - his district leans only 1% Republican. But he is a formidable campaigner. He faces a rematch against Cinci City Councillor John Cranley, whom he defeated 53-45 in 2004. Cranley is a strong vote-puller in Cinci local elections and while his funding does not quite match up to Chabot’s, it ain’t bad for a challenger who isn’t independently wealthy. This will go to the wire, Cabot’s proven ability to see off strong Democratic challenges makes me give him the slightest of edges at this point. LEANS REPUBLICAN.
Ohio 2nd - incumbent Jean Schmidt might be a fool, but this is solid Republican country, mainly in Cincinnati’s suburbs (R +13% partisan index), and Victoria Wulsin has little national backing. What Paul Hackett didn’t quite manage in last year’s special election, I can’t see Wulsin doing either, but Schmidt will underperform for as long as she represents this district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Ohio 6th - in a district with an even partisan split, Ted Strickland’s retirement to run for Governor should be causing Democrats problems. However, Democrat Charlie Wilson has bedded down well after an early cock-up left him having to fight a write-in campaign in his party’s primary, and I find it difficult to see Republican Chuck Bladsel pulling off an upset in this sprawling rural seat in South Eastern Ohio. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Ohio 13th Another Democrat in a potentially vulnerable House seat has picked the perfect moment to run for statewide office. Sherrod Brown is running for Senate and with a D +6% partisan index in this sprawling industrial seat running from Akron to Lake Erie, Betty Sutton should inherit the seat easily. Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin is a strong candidate, but this district sprawls and the national wind is not with him. I can’t see the 13th being unlucky for Democrats. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Ohio 15th - Republican Deborah Pryce has represented South Columbus and its suburbs for seven terms, but faces a stiff test against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy. Pryce is popular and has always out-performed her party but Columbus saw what was just about Kerry’s strongest performance in all of Ohio in 2004 and distance herself as she might, the mud spewing from Ohio’s state Republicans will cost Pryce some votes. With a practically even partisan breakdown (R +1%), Pryce will need all her personal popularity to pull her through, and it should do. Just. Both parties are dumping money into this race. LEANS REPUBLICAN.
Ohio 18th - scandal hit Republican Bob Ney quit this sprawling rural district in Eastern Ohio before the voters could do it for him. With a partisan index of R +6%, this is holdable for Republicans but not exactly safe. Republicans face a special primary on September 14th which is likely to anoint State Senator Joy Padgett - but will distract attention from the general, and she may be too close to Ney for the public’s liking. Democrat nominee, Zack Space, may has not been getting rave reviews but he may not need to to win. TOSS UP.
South Dakota - moderate Dem and Kos-kid pinup Stephanie Herseth has tacked perfectly into her district’s political wind and made herself very popular after her initial narrow special election win. They like popular moderate incumbents from political dynasties in the Dakotas, so expect Herseth’s 7% margin of victory last time to triple or even quadruple. Herseth will undoubtedly face closer elections in the future, but Republican Native American Bruce Whalen is a token candidate for the faithful to vote for. SAFE DEMOCRATIC.
Wisconsin 8th - Conservative Republican Mark Green assiduously courted this moderate district (R +4%) and had some massive wins - 70-30 in 2004 - but has now stood down to challenge Democratic Governor Jim Doyle. While John Gard looks to have the Republican primary sewn up, the Democrats are stuck in a brutal three-way fight which may deplete coffers beyond repair for whoever wins. It’s hard to read exactly what will happen in this Green Bay-based district until September 12th’s primary is out of the way, but the Democrats may be in the process of fluffing a perfect pickup opportunity. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.