*sigh* Once again, that stupid tablet from the fruit company
Today's the day Apple is all but certainly going to launch their slate. Until I hear otherwise, I'm hesitant to call it a full-blown tablet [computer] until there is more detail about its OS/software. There are finally some plausible shots of the device that support long-circulated rumors of a variant of the iPhone OS (which, in my opinion, knocks it down from full-blown computer, like my WinXP Viliv S5, to a Smartbook/Smartpad/whatever, like my Android tablet. According to Harold McGraw III, CEO of publisher McGraw-Hill, ebooks are going to be a key focus for the device. He stated on CNBC that the tablet is real, has software roots in the iPhone operating system, and will "be just really terrific".
I'm still skeptical about the tablet's ability to compete in the ebook market even with the backing of major publishing powerhouses. My favoring of e-Ink over traditional LCD displays for extended reading sessions has been covered before and no signs yet exist that the new tablet will have an OLPC-like multi-state display that can terminate the backlight for a similar effect (quite well, too, I might add). For even more pressure, the Wall Street Journal claims the price for Apple tablet ebooks will be $12.99 or $14.99 for bestsellers, a few titles offered for $9.99 (link, don't like using WSJ links). With Amazon's Kindle store offering bestsellers for $9.99, for the most part, it would appear that Apple's strategy is to have people pay more to read on a less comfortable display. There is no word as far as I can tell about what kind of DRM these ebooks would carry and whether or not they can be used on any other devices (iPhone, Windows PC, Mac); there is a Kindle app for the iPhone as well as Windows, both for free, that can be used to read titles purchased from the Kindle store.
Also concerning is the operating system. It is by no means a prediction of doom to stick with a smartphone OS for such a device, particularly one that was built for touch input, but with a slew of devices on the horizon running a far more robust Windows 7, I think that the potential limitations in software could be a significant misstep. With the projected 10" screen, it will be only as portable as a laptop, albeit with particular care for the exposed screen, which would either be supplemented with or replaced by the tablet. With a notebook, smartphone, and tablet within access, where would the tablet's role fit? If it's running a modified iPhone OS, is it something more conveniently done on the more miniature device? If it requires more surface area, why not use the laptop instead?
It may be partially answered by the likely inclusion of 3G mobile broadband, with the "No Service" block in the status bar of the leaked OS photo providing some pretty strong evidence. It is unknown which carrier will support the device, though AT&T will almost certainly be a top candidate and Verizon could certainly make entry into Apple's "circle of friends" with their support. The Kindle and Barnes & Noble "nook" reader both have integrated mobile broadband that is included with no additional charge to the consumer, the cost of service, which is supposed to be used almost exclusively for downloading purchases from their respective online stores, is assumed in the cost of the digital content. Considering the software library currently available for the iPhone, the prospect of complementary mobile internet is laughable (not impossible, admittedly).
Wireless carrier involvement raises yet another concern. Several rumor mills presented a $1000 price tag that was recently denied by suspected content providers who claimed the price to be far from an even grand. Considering the similarities to the iPhone, a device that sells for $499-699 depending on configuration outside of contract, it's well within reason to expect the tablet to approach the original projection. So why did these publishers recently refute that figure? Carrier subsidies are the prime suspect. A two-year contract with AT&T comes with a $400 discount for the iPhone. If that same rules apply to the tablet, the consensus price would be $600 upfront (plus activation costs) that could easily fall under that not-near-$1000 blanket. Then the question becomes what kind of service plan does the device require. The iPhone currently adds a $30 data fee to a voice plan and it unlikely that a voice plan will be needed for the tablet (in addition to making the iPhone redundant, exactly how the device would be used as a phone is a mystery).
Although the device may consume more data in a given session (higher quality video, full-site browsing, maybe even support for Flash 10.x), the portability concern makes me think it would probably use the wireless broadband less frequently than the more convenient smartphone option, Why bring this up? More data usage would mean a potentially higher service plan required and a greater per month fee. If my frequency assumption holds, it could be reasonable for an unlimited $30.mo plan to be offered. The downside to a cheap plan is that the subsidy on the device would decrease. The whole point to discounting the hardware was to recoup the difference in two-years' worth of an expensive service plan. If the plan is too cheap, the discount could be far less. With a data package making up about 40% of a typical iPhone monthly bill (no texts), we could see only 40% of that $400 subsidy, or $160, for a tablet, bringing the consumer cost to $800-850 based on an original $1000 price tag. That's more than the Mac Minis, but less than the cheapest MacBook, so that scenario is also reasonable even if it is awfully close to $1000.
With only a few hours to go until the big reveal, spending much of any time postulating is rather pointless as most if not all questions should be answered at the event. There is a good chance that my speculation, both here and in previous posts, will be proven wrong then. But I'd still like to see my concerns addressed.
I'm still skeptical about the tablet's ability to compete in the ebook market even with the backing of major publishing powerhouses. My favoring of e-Ink over traditional LCD displays for extended reading sessions has been covered before and no signs yet exist that the new tablet will have an OLPC-like multi-state display that can terminate the backlight for a similar effect (quite well, too, I might add). For even more pressure, the Wall Street Journal claims the price for Apple tablet ebooks will be $12.99 or $14.99 for bestsellers, a few titles offered for $9.99 (link, don't like using WSJ links). With Amazon's Kindle store offering bestsellers for $9.99, for the most part, it would appear that Apple's strategy is to have people pay more to read on a less comfortable display. There is no word as far as I can tell about what kind of DRM these ebooks would carry and whether or not they can be used on any other devices (iPhone, Windows PC, Mac); there is a Kindle app for the iPhone as well as Windows, both for free, that can be used to read titles purchased from the Kindle store.
Also concerning is the operating system. It is by no means a prediction of doom to stick with a smartphone OS for such a device, particularly one that was built for touch input, but with a slew of devices on the horizon running a far more robust Windows 7, I think that the potential limitations in software could be a significant misstep. With the projected 10" screen, it will be only as portable as a laptop, albeit with particular care for the exposed screen, which would either be supplemented with or replaced by the tablet. With a notebook, smartphone, and tablet within access, where would the tablet's role fit? If it's running a modified iPhone OS, is it something more conveniently done on the more miniature device? If it requires more surface area, why not use the laptop instead?
It may be partially answered by the likely inclusion of 3G mobile broadband, with the "No Service" block in the status bar of the leaked OS photo providing some pretty strong evidence. It is unknown which carrier will support the device, though AT&T will almost certainly be a top candidate and Verizon could certainly make entry into Apple's "circle of friends" with their support. The Kindle and Barnes & Noble "nook" reader both have integrated mobile broadband that is included with no additional charge to the consumer, the cost of service, which is supposed to be used almost exclusively for downloading purchases from their respective online stores, is assumed in the cost of the digital content. Considering the software library currently available for the iPhone, the prospect of complementary mobile internet is laughable (not impossible, admittedly).
Wireless carrier involvement raises yet another concern. Several rumor mills presented a $1000 price tag that was recently denied by suspected content providers who claimed the price to be far from an even grand. Considering the similarities to the iPhone, a device that sells for $499-699 depending on configuration outside of contract, it's well within reason to expect the tablet to approach the original projection. So why did these publishers recently refute that figure? Carrier subsidies are the prime suspect. A two-year contract with AT&T comes with a $400 discount for the iPhone. If that same rules apply to the tablet, the consensus price would be $600 upfront (plus activation costs) that could easily fall under that not-near-$1000 blanket. Then the question becomes what kind of service plan does the device require. The iPhone currently adds a $30 data fee to a voice plan and it unlikely that a voice plan will be needed for the tablet (in addition to making the iPhone redundant, exactly how the device would be used as a phone is a mystery).
Although the device may consume more data in a given session (higher quality video, full-site browsing, maybe even support for Flash 10.x), the portability concern makes me think it would probably use the wireless broadband less frequently than the more convenient smartphone option, Why bring this up? More data usage would mean a potentially higher service plan required and a greater per month fee. If my frequency assumption holds, it could be reasonable for an unlimited $30.mo plan to be offered. The downside to a cheap plan is that the subsidy on the device would decrease. The whole point to discounting the hardware was to recoup the difference in two-years' worth of an expensive service plan. If the plan is too cheap, the discount could be far less. With a data package making up about 40% of a typical iPhone monthly bill (no texts), we could see only 40% of that $400 subsidy, or $160, for a tablet, bringing the consumer cost to $800-850 based on an original $1000 price tag. That's more than the Mac Minis, but less than the cheapest MacBook, so that scenario is also reasonable even if it is awfully close to $1000.
With only a few hours to go until the big reveal, spending much of any time postulating is rather pointless as most if not all questions should be answered at the event. There is a good chance that my speculation, both here and in previous posts, will be proven wrong then. But I'd still like to see my concerns addressed.