In eastern Ukraine, a point of no return? A l'Est de l'Ukraine, un point de non retour?
A very interesting article, from "La Tribune", dated Septembre, 25th, 2014.
Written in French by Marc Meuillassoux, correspondant of "La Tribune" in Kiev. Translate in English by me
In eastern Ukraine, a point of no return?
Marc Meillassoux in Kiev, Donetsk | 25/09/2014, 1:04 p.m. - 2062 words
A compromise is still possible in Ukraine, which would prevent the release of Donbass Ukrainian territory. By Marc Meillassoux, independent journalist
Despite a very fragile situation even in the East, "separatists" and probably behind Russia are the winners of the Battle of Donbass. Much of the population of the occupied areas no longer want to hear about Ukraine.
When you ask the people of Donbass, where separatist and loyalist forces still face despite a "cease-fire" never respected, they usually cite three feelings: fear, anger and hope. A Mariupol, fear: that of seeing the return of the fighting after the tragic events of May, while the anti-government forces are still far from the city.
In Donetsk, the anger, especially in the northern districts, taken hostage by fighting between government forces and loyalists shelled by the latter - Kalininsky neighborhoods, and Kirovsky Kivski. In Slaviansk, hope: that a return to normal life after weeks of blockade, shortages, abuses and reprisals on both sides. The regional capital, Donetsk, is a ghost town: on the main avenue Artem, usually known for its traffic jams, a few cars, especially separatists surging at breakneck speed, flashing lights on.
Half of the population of Donetsk moved
It is generally estimated at 500,000, or half of the inhabitants of Donetsk, the number of IDPs. Local - not always measured on the question - are more like 70 or even 80%. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees said 400 000 refugees are reported to have leave Donbass. At the Embassy of France in Kiev talking altogether six to seven million people about eight million of the region. In the north of the city, many factories, such as the bread factory Zasiadka, its coal mine and gas infrastructure were bombed. Residential buildings show gaping holes. In early September, the small street market received a burst, where eight civilians perished in the flying shards of metal. The walls riddled with holes of diameter ranging from the size of a marble to that of a hand ball preserve traces.
Dead, mostly civilians
Today, an estimated 2,700 deaths in the conflict. Mostly civilians, almost exclusively of Donbass. Figures close to the deal "protective Border" in Gaza, why many are upset. If comparison is not right, but one wonders why the Ukrainians East does not deserve such empathy. The laconic formulas of Western leaders and the convoluted twists many commentators contrasted with outrage no less tragic events of Maidan, when more than 80 civilians were killed in February. Apart from the reports of some journalists on site, most comments have greatly avoided the issue of the victims of this crisis.
A legally Ukrainian but culturally Russian region
There is a necessary reality when traveling in the Donbass and particularly in territories claimed by the People's Republic of Donetsk (DPR): This legally Ukrainian region is culturally Russian. Not only Russian-speaking or pro-Russian, but a deep-rooted Russian culture. This does nothing to justify annexation by neighboring Russia, but requires special reading events. Historically the Donbass, "the Don Basin," is shared by Ukraine ("Oblast" or Lugansk and Donetsk region) and Russia (Rostov Oblast).
The only language spoken is Russian - Ukrainian : a few knows but nobody uses, mastery of English derives from the exceptional, the cross and Orthodox churches are everywhere, every claim of the family of the across the Russian border and a large part is defined as "Russian." Many refugees have also crossed the border at the approach of the "Battle of Donetsk."
Economically turned to Russia
Economically, the Donbass also turned to Russia, particularly its heavy industry and mining (coal), part of the chain of production of the Soviet era and now Russian, and higher-end industry emerged from the 2000s, such as rolling precision. This region of Ukraine also shares specific production standards, different from European standards. The six eastern regions (24 in total) represent 54% of exports, against only 26% of imports.
These exports are 80% directed to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (1). The Donetsk Oblast is the richest region of Ukraine - except the only city of Kiev - with an average salary of 3500-3900 UAH against an average salary between 2300 and 2900 for the nine regions of Western country (2), (3). These macroeconomic data are important, because in the population, the tax bite by Kiev of the wealth produced by the region is one of the commonly cited reasons for supporting separatists or at least greater autonomy for the region. However, it is risky to balance the tax-subsidy is actually disadvantageous to the region, the people of Donbass also receiving significant welfare of Kiev.
In Donetsk, the arbitrary rules but the people follow
The legitimacy of the separatists and the accession of a large part of the population to their banner is a complex issue. While some separatists are good people willing to sacrifice their lives for a cause they believe sincerely fair, others are half-bandits who terrorize populations suspected of treason and abuse of authority shamelessly using their Kalashnikovs . No one can deny the sense of arbitrariness that prevails in the capital of Donbass. However, the separatists have a palpable grassroots support, the incredible circumstances of the vote on the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk failed to quantify objectively.
The prohibition of Russian in Ukrainian regions, seen as a denial of their culture
The reasons for this are manifold membership. The law that would ban the Russian in all Oblasts (regions of Ukraine) has obviously been seen as a negation of authoritarian culture. The episode of the Union House in Odessa (at least forty pro-Russian had perished in the flames of the building after violent clashes with pro-Ukrainian, particularly extremists Pravyi Sektor) also create a marker in the head Russophile of populations.
"Our government bombards us"
There surely fantasy among many residents describe as "fascist" or "bandera" (referring to the Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera) executive Ukrainian. However, we remain appalled at the sight of "Wolfsengel" (Nazi symbol) displayed by some loyalist militias as the battalion Azov in Mariupol, auxiliary of the regular army. Massive bombing in defiance of civilians were also right many skeptics and even pro-Maidan. Today, many Ukrainians Eastern repeat in substance that "we do not recognize ourselves in the Ukrainian state that bombards us, we have reached the point of no return." Wanting to reduce the desire for self-determination of some of these populations to a simple "brainwashing" of Russian propaganda-as we hear regularly - returns to evade more complex realities.
The infernal logic of war
The infernal logic of war, in which each side justifies its horrors by those of others, did the rest. It will happen one day to establish clear responsibilities in climbing. If Putin certainly has his share, especially in sending very likely hardware and troops in eastern Ukraine (4), the executive Ukrainian and Western diplomats are not exempt either. The association between the EU and Ukraine without consultation with Russia gait, often Manichean and sometimes bellicose rhetoric of Western governments and the questionable sanctions against Russia forced to wonder. The strategy of the new powers that want to respond by force to a popular uprising, it was unrepresentative and supported by a foreign power, also raises questions.
Manichaeism of the West
The recovery loop of the dominant discourse by some commentators - exemption made local journalists - has also created a highly polarized debate preventing serene ideas. (5)
The difference in perception of Yulia Tymoshenko, former Prime Minister and figure of the Orange Revolution, between Ukraine and France (and Germany) is instructive in this regard. Considered a "traitor" by many of the Ukrainians (particularly the Maidan) to deal with its past Putin in the upcoming elections in 2009 (the doubling of gas prices (6)), many hold it here for officials of the crisis. It is far from exalted portraits of some French and German titles. More generally, the perception of the Western public about many aspects of this crisis with the Ukrainian sliced opinion, either pro-Russian or pro-Maidan.
Hostility towards Putin
Today, the reality on the ground is complex: there are in Ukraine hostility - sometimes hatred - against Vladimir Putin and the corrupt oligarchic system inherited from the Soviet Union, which he and Russia are now associated with. Reduce this by a large part of the country to a "fascist" movement momentum, as does the Russian side, is dishonest. The aspirations of another part of the Ukrainian people - more autonomy or independence in the East - pose real issues in the United Nations, especially Westerners.
The panic caused by the Scottish referendum demonstrated. Sweep a backhand by taxing "terrorists" separatists and accusing Putin of wanting to repeat a "Anschluss" is yet simplistic. Their claims may have been taken as seriously as those of the Maidan and greater autonomy given to these regions would surely have avoided this war. With the approach of winter and the first cold snaps, the separatists -appuyés by Moscow and its gas weapon - look set to win the game.
A compromise is still possible
Remains today in finding a top out. It will inevitably involve a calmer reading of the conflict in all its complexity. Renunciation of Ukraine to NATO is a first strong message to Russia, which feels threatened on its border in a period of heightened tension with the United States (Iraqi episodes, Georgian, Libyan and Syrian) . It goes in the direction of the promise - unfulfilled - Reagan to Gorbachev at the fall of the USSR, not to integrate the former satellite states of the Atlantic Alliance (7). The hardline different parts led to a political stalemate that has already cost the lives of 2,700 people.
The first priority would be to do away with a simplistic discourse would have us believe the next invasion of the Baltic States and Poland by Vladimir Putin. An intermediate solution, avoiding the release of the Ukrainian Donbass territory, is still possible. It will go through a subtle compromise, the definition of a Western firm but reasoned diplomacy and effective cessation of hostilities, the first victims are, once again, local people.
(1) Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia (Observer State)
(2) State Statistic Service of Ukraine FY 2013
(3) ~ 17 UAH = 1 euro
(4) Items that accredit the intervention of Russian troops in Ukraine by Benedict Vitkine THE WORLD, August 28, 2014
(5) French Media in the Ukrainian countryside, Le Monde Diplomatique Mathias Reymond, August 2014
(6) Exactly what is a fair price for Ukraine to pay for Russian gas? By Ben Aris Business New Europe, 16 June 2014
(7) Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic (1999), Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (2004).
The original article can be found here :
http://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/20140925trib000850514/a-l-est-de-l-ukraine-un-point-de-non-retour.html