Seanan McGuire's half-fae San Francisco investigator Toby Daye solves approximately one mystery per book, but she lives in a world with plenty of mysteries left. This post, which I began writing months ago but have been saving until
muchabstracted finished the series, begins to guess at some of the hidden mysteries. Expect major spoilers for all three published
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The person betraying her has got to be someone we've already met.
What are the odds that the lie is someone protecting her, and not someone betraying her? All we know is someone is lying, using Toby to lie (therefore, as you say, someone she trusts), and that Toby's ancestry is probably involved. We both came to the conclusion about Toby's ancestry separately, so that's pretty likely to be part of what's going on.
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And yes. I hadn't thought about that sword being the wrong weapon... but it totally was. Toby didn't even use the sword. Blind Michael wielded it against her. She needed the silver knife from Dare and the iron knife from Acacia. The sword was not, in fact, helpful at all.
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(The additional reasons for Toby to take things slowly are that (a) she didn't realize until the third book that anything was going on; and more importantly, (b) she's getting involved with Tybalt. There are so many reasons to go slowly.
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I do think Toby has more power than she knows about. There's that odd moment in the sample chapter where May and Toby transform the gown together, and May refuses to explain what just happened, but Toby knows she's using more magic than she really ought to have. It isn't all coming from May.
One last (obvious) prediction: Countess Toby's going to need a squire, and Quentin is so totally it.
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