Pricey gas a reality? (LONG)

Jun 01, 2006 00:21

Get used to it. And do something about consumption.

Pricey gas a simple reality.
http://www.alternet.org/audits/36746/
It's actually kind of funny to hear Americans complain these days about the cost of gasoline and how it is affecting their lives. What did they expect after setting up an easy-motoring utopia of suburban metroplexes that make incessant driving inevitable? And how did they fail to register the basic facts of the world oil situation, which have been available to us for decades? Those facts are as follows: oil fields follow a simple pattern of production and depletion along a bell curve. Universally, when an oil field gets close to half the amount of oil it originally possessed, production peaks and then declines. This is true for all oil fields in the aggregate, for a nation and even the world.

In the United States, oil production peaked in 1970 and has been declining ever since. We extracted about 10 million barrels a day in 1970 and just under five million barrels a day now. Because our consumption has only increased steadily, we've made up for the shortfall by importing oil from other countries.

There is now powerful evidence in the production figures worldwide that we have reached global peak oil production. The collective nations of the earth will not make up for this by importing oil from other planets.

Contrary to a faction of wishful thinkers, the earth does not have a creamy nougat center of oil. Oil fields do not replenish themselves. Also contrary to the prevailing wish, no combination of alternative fuels will allow us to keep running the interstate highway system, Wal-Mart, Walt Disney World and the other furnishings of what Dick Cheney called our "non-negotiable way of life."

Let me reiterate: oil production peaked in 1970 and has been declining ever since. That's reality. What that means is that we are on the aft end of the curve. The Arctic reserves aren't going to help that much. The solutions we need in order to beat the energy crunch:
Less individual travel for employment, by at least 90%.That means we need to increase deployment of DSL and reduce its price. There are some jobs for which there is no possibility of reducing travel - like farm employment and manufacturing. The suburbs came into being so that blue collar workers could live outside the city and commute into it, possible only with the automobile and cheap gas. Now, cheap gas is not an option. Therefore, the modern equivalent to the trolley or streetcar must be increased in its application: light rail.

Also, we need to have much more good housing (emphasis: good. That doesn't mean slums!) available close to where the jobs are.

Much higher gas mileage, on average, for vehicles.That means, probably, making high-gas-mileage vehicles available really cheaply. And, truth be told, it can be done. How? From http://452-auto.blogspot.com/:A more recent working prototype of the electric-hybrid vehicle was built by Victor Wouk (one of the scientists involved with the Henney Kilowatt and also brother of author Herman Wouk ). Wouk's work with electric hybrid vehicles in the 1960s and 1970s earned the title as the "Godfather of the Hybrid"). Wouk installed a prototype electric-hybrid drivetrain into a 1972 Buick Skylark provided by GM for the 1970 Federal Clean Car Incentive Program, but the program was killed by the EPA in 1976. Since then, hobbyists have continued to build hybrids but none was put into mass production by a major manufacturer until the waning years of the twentieth century.

The regenerative-braking hybrid, the core design concept of most production hybrids, was developed by Electrical Engineer David Arthurs around 1978 using off-the shelf components and an Opel GT. However the voltage controller to link the batteries, motor (a jet-engine starter motor), and DC generator was Mr. Arthurs The vehicle exhibited ~75 mpg fuel efficiency and plans for it (as well as somewhat updated versions) are still available through the Mother Earth News web site. The Mother Earth News' own 1980 version claimed nearly 84 mpg.
Mother Earth News:
http://www.motherearthnews.com/library/1979_July_August/An_Amazing_75_MPG_Hybrid_Electic_CarIn essence, David has utilized a small gas lawn-mower engine to drive a generator, which-in turn-supplies the vehicle's drive motor with electricity. To do so, he first removed the Opel's original power-plant and installed a 400-amp DC motor/ generator (actually a jet engine's starting motor) in its place. (Since there's no need for a clutch in Dave's setup, the stock unit was pulled out and the main shaft of the drive motor was fastened directly to the input shaft of the car's transmission.) Then, to provide a consistent source of power for this motor (and to supply an energy storage bank), the engineer installed four 12-volt, heavy-duty automobile batteries-in series-which are "fed" by a 100-amp generator that's run off a 5-horsepower lawn-mower engine. Of course, other components (such as relays, charging diodes, rectifiers, and an additional motor speed regulation circuit) are necessary to keep input and output power within optimum limits-and to allow full control of the vehicle at all speeds-but these are standard electrical parts which have been available for years. The engine-driven generator can handle the demand from the main motor up to speeds of about 50 miles per hour. The "stored" energy in the batteries comes into play at higher velocities, giving extra kick for passing and climbing hills. To guarantee that the charging system isn't overworked . . . Dave has rigged up a regenerative braking circuit which- in effect-turns the drive motor into a generator, to feed the batteries when the vehicle is decelerating. (This not only takes advantage of normally wasted energy, but also saves wear and tear on the car's conventional braking system.) Since the Opel's "stock" cooling apparatus has been removed, two small thermostatically controlled electric fans provide ventilation to the motor and generator as required ... while the gasoline engine is, of course, air-cooled by design.
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A set of detailed, easily understood plans will soon be available that will allow the average "backyard mechanic" to convert a conventionally powered automobile to hybrid electric drive. MOTHER's plans package includes schematic drawings, a components list-complete with manufacturers' names and part numbers-and a materials list . . . all put together in a fully explained, easy-to-follow packet. just send your name and address-along with $15.00-to Mother's., Plans, Hybrid Electric Car, P.O. Box A, East, Flat Rock, North Carolina 28726.
http://www.motherearthnews.com/Alternative_Energy/1993_June_July/1993_Update__Dave_Arthur_s_Amazing_Hybrid_Electric_CarA few weeks later, we had a hybrid engine comfortably placed in a 1973 Subaru chassis. We had decided to install a slightly bigger generator engine, but our car still averaged 83.6 miles to the gallon, ran flawlessly, and emitted a minimum of pollutants as it tooled along the highway. The idea caught on like wildfire among MOTHER readers and over the course of the next year, 60,000 people asked for plans to convert their cars. As might be imagined, technology has marched along at a pretty brisk pace since 1979, and recently we were gratified to hear that Dave has been to the drawing board again, converting the engine of a 1980 Toyota pickup into an even more efficient hybrid of electric and gas formats. The results are simply better than ever. MOTHER spoke to Dave at his Fayatteville, Arkansas, home about his designs.
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Dave Arthurs:

Although there have been quite a few developments in combustion engine design over the last decade, battery technology has taken the real leap. That's fortunate for the hybrid car since the electric engine provides the lion's share of the motivation. Basically, batteries are getting lighter and more powerful. Six-volt batteries were the only types suitable for my purposes back in the '70s. Have you ever seen one of those old six-volt batteries? They're monsters. I had to use six to generate the appropriate current, and at 75 pounds apiece, a very significant amount of the batteries' energy was spent hauling itself around. The new models weigh precisely the same but produce twice as much power. As a result, cruising range has now been extended, as has as average cruising speed. The batteries I use are deep-cycle with a cold-cranking power of 1,314 amps. I highly recommend a 36-volt circuit, so you'll need at least three of these 12-volt batteries. Most cars will draw 150-200 amps at 45 mph. When looking for a battery, compare the reserve capacity and the number of plates per battery. A high number indicates deep-cycle capability and high-current output. One battery I've found has 186 plates and a 75-amp, 12-volt output for 100 minutes.
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If you're careful, you need never throw away the batteries in the truck. When exhausted, they can be cheaply rebuilt by the manufacturer. The problem is getting consumers to want to recycle them. Here in Arkansas, in order to make sure that as few batteries and their contaminating agents as possible end up in the landfills, a $10 fine has been imposed on any buyer of a battery who doesn't bring the old one with them. All those old batteries go back and get remanufactured.

http://www.motherearthshopping.com/Mother-Earth-Shopping-Detail.aspx?ItemNumber=1764How to build your own hybrid-electric car using a 1970s-era vehicle as the starting point. Advanced mechanical skills required. Originally printed in 1980.
That's how. Here's another one: 1 liter per 100 km, from VW: http://www.greatchange.org/footnotes-1-liter-car.htmlThe objective was to develop a vehicle with a fuel consumption of no more than one litre per 100 kilometres, using all technical possibilities available. The principal point was to show how state-of-the-art technology can be used to reduce fuel consumption and still come up with a safe, usable and roadworthy vehicle.
Another one: http://www.electroauto.com/catalog/kits.shtmlThese DC conversion systems are suitable for economical conversions of small cars and pickups in the range of 1,800 - 3,100 lbs. curb weight (not gross vehicle weight). This includes subcompacts and compacts, sports cars, and light pickups. They work with medium range battery pack voltages (96-144 volts), and require a manual transmission. They can achieve top speeds of 65-95 mph depending on chassis and pack voltage. Mileage per charge will vary from 20-40 miles for heavy vehicles to 80-100 miles for light aerodynamic vehicles. Range will also be affected by terrain, climate, traffic flow, and driving style.

Okay, so with all this available, what's stopping us?

Comfort is one. The hybrids have to have separately-run AC and heat, since the "big gas engine" is no longer providing loads of waste heat and loads of waste power under normal operating conditions. See http://www.hybridcars.com/air-conditioning-effects.html for more information. If one uses an AC system instead of a DC system

Money is another. Commercial hybrids tend to be a bit on the expensive side for the people who need them the most. Even do-it-yourself hybrids can be pricey. Generators with built-in gasoline engines are expensive - and DC generators aren't cheap, which means that most are going to buy AC generators and convert the output to DC (easier and lots cheaper and more efficient, but requires more work and more parts - and is what Toyota does with the Prius).

Acceleration can be an issue. While electric motors can generate a lot of torque, their reputation is of slow acceleration (The 2004 Prius goes from 0 to 60mph in about 10 seconds). The solution to this is in the transmission/differential; if it's properly geared, low-speed torque is available, and high-speed fuel efficiency is also available.

Power is an issue in certain applications. The advantage to a big gasoline engine is evident when you absolutely need a lot of power and torque to do the job you're doing. However, this is not the case with most people. Most people need the ability to accelerate into traffic quickly, which doesn't take that much power, certainly not more than is available from an electric hybrid, provided the electric motor or motors are sized correctly for the weight of the vehicle.

Corporations make lots of profit from high oil prices (the profit margins go higher as the price of oil increases). If we can construct our own vehicles that don't use as much, they're out to show us we can't - or mak it illegal. Reminds me of an old political cartoon: "You want coal? We own the mines." "You want oil and gas?" "We own the wells." "You want nuclear energy?" "We own the uranium." "You want solar power?" "We own the er..ah.." "Solar power isn't feasible." (I remember seeing the cartoon in the 1970's, but cannot place the author. Might have been Mike Peters, the author of Mother Goose and Grimm.)

State Law sometimes prohibits non-mechanics from working on their own vehicles, or from creating their own designs. In some cases, this is a good thing, but in many cases, it simply stifles our inventiveness - and keeps the corporations on top. And, then, how do you register something you've modified like that? And is it legal to modify a car in that manner?

Politicians are in the pockets of the oil-guzzling automakers and the oil-producing companies. For example, the California Air Resources Board voted to disallow all-electric vehicles in the state of california. From http://drivingthefuture.com/carbgoof.htm:California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted 8-3 to kill ZEV mandate

The ZERO Emission Vehicle program was designed to show that zero emission cars are practical and fun. It succeeded in doing that, as there are a lucky corps of happy Electric Vehicle drivers whose cars had to be ripped away from them.

Alan Lloyd, who was appointed Chair by the reputedly corrupt ex-Gov. Davis, has presided over killing the electric car program and CARB's shameful surrender to the Oil Lobby.
The cars in question used no fuel. At least one was solar-recharged (Toyota's RAV4 EV). GM crushed and shredded every EV1 they could find, including the ones consumers had bought and paid for (http://ev1.org/). Alan Lloyd,PhD, after his tenure as chairman, took a job with the California Fuel Cell Partnership. No corruption there, nope.

Who killed the Electric Car?
http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=12796
http://www.sonyclassics.com/whokilledtheelectriccar/
http://www.sonyclassics.com/whokilledtheelectriccar/electric.html
Available June 28, 2006.

Fortunately, Toyota is choosing to let lessors purchase their RAV4-EVs.
http://dontcrush.com/

And why an electric car will work for commuting: 80% of drivers drive 50 miles per day or less.
http://www.pluginamerica.com/

Set America Free. http://www.setamericafree.org/"WE ARE FIGHTING a war against terror and paying for both sides of the war. "

How much are we really paying for a gallon of gas?
http://www.iags.org/costofoil.html
http://www.iags.org/n1030034.htm
According to the National Defense Council Foundation, the economic penalties of America's oil dependence total $297.2 to $304.9 billion annually. If reflected at the gasoline pump, these “hidden costs” would raise the price of a gallon of gasoline to over $5.28. A fill-up would be over $105.
And that was when gasoline was $2 a gallon. The biggie, though, is the loss of over 828,000 jobs from the US economy.
Even worse: $15.14/gallon? http://www.icta.org/doc/Real%20Price%20of%20Gasoline.pdf

From http://www.wtrg.com/, oil was over $70.00 a barrel today; gasoline at NY Harbor was $2.15/gallon.

From http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/margins/index.html, where the price goes, and historical data.

From http://drivingthefuture.com/97pct.htm, data on the cleaner nature of electric power, compared to gasoline.

And what do we need to do?

This technology is available now. We haven't heard about it because the oil companies don't profit from electric cars. They've still got a couple of hundred million barrels of oil in the ground - and they want to sell it all.

What we can do: purchase hybrid vehicles, but make sure they can be charged off the grid, that they have an electric-only mode, and so on. Those of us who cannot afford new vehicles, we can investigate the possibility of conversions. I'm looking at a hybrid conversion for my Ford Explorer; not sure how well it's going to work, but I'm looking at it. Unfortunately, in the next few months I'm going to need the power of that vehicle to do some things, so it'll be late this year before I get to making any conversions.

What we can do: drive less. Drive slower.

What we can do: write our Congresscritters and Senators.

economics, politics, environment: ecology, prices, oil, systems, politics: environmentalism

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