О проблемах Европы за 4 минуты.
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The current crisis of the year is on is a resource of the imbalance of economic power between countries in the core of the Europe and country on the periphery.
The crisis has a financial solution becomes and transfer of funds from the center to the periphery. However, Europe's main chalenge is not economic, but political.
The solution that makes more sense from an economic point of view could be an acceptable from a political perspective for most of the key actors of the crisis. The european union faces a basic dilemma - countries in EU's periphery are unable to overcome the crisis by themselves within the limits of the common currency, be combination of high debts, low growth.
Aging population and loss competitiveness means that th EU's periphery needs money from an external source. That source has to be Germany. To keep the EU on a life Germany will have to support sustains financial transfer to the periphery. So far, Germany has accepted to provide some help to EU some countries in distress.
Berlin has done so by agreeing on bailouts fans and by accepting the european central banks purchase of sovereign bonds for country's that's face high bond yields.
Germany has been asking for austerity policies and institutional reforms in returns for its financial assistance. The system is now facing serious tensions - both with in germany and the european level.
The first reactions to germany's plans happens in the countries that were requeste in implement austerity. In countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal people protested against spending-cuts intentions, salaries, have an education. As the crisis lingers their reaction to austerity has reached the european core. In France population choose socialist candidate Fransua Holland as a new president.
Holland campaigned against Germany driven austerity and asked for growth matures(messures) in response to the crisis. The reaction against austerity has now reached Germany. In the two regional elections that were held inmate Angela Merkel's christian democratic party was defeated by center-left parties. The opposition criticized Merkel's push for austerity both in germany and europe. German opposition actively supported Holland's campaign in France and ask for a similar polical shift in Germany.
This leaves Germany in a dilicate situations. Berlin knows that in order to keep euro's on the life had greater amount of german many has to be transfered to the european periphery. But Merkel also has to explain to german voters winder many should be transfer to periphery countries with little financial discipline.
Germany will have to find a way to tell voters why it's needs to subsidize the european periphery.
This national debate will a care regardless of which party is in power in Germany.
In Eurozone fully subsidized by Germany would make sense from a financial point of view. But it could be unbearable for populations both in germany and here euro's periphery. Germany could then proposed that all countries transfered more sovereignty to brussels. The outcome of this process would be a fairly right europe with a weaker Germany. This alternative maybe tolerable for the european periphery, but with limited german leverage over the eurozone.
Of the center of this debates lase the question of national sovereignty. The core and the periphery of euro will than to decide how much they're willing to compromise in order to find a way out of the crisis. The answer to this question will not be the result of an economic analysis. It will be resul of a political calculation.
Adriano Bosson.