Weather pr0n...
...in addition to the spectacular cloud pattern observed on satellite...An Air Force reconnaissance plane measured 168 knots at 700 mb and estimated a minimum pressure of 884 mb extrapolated from 700mb. (normal at sea level = 1024 mb; Katrina = 902 mb at peak, 700mb ~ 2.5km level usually, I think -c) Unofficially...the meteorologist on board the plane relied an extrapolated 881 mb pressure and measured 884 mb with a dropsonde. This is all in association with a very small eye that has been oscillating between 2 and 4 N mi during eye penetrations. This is probably the lowest minimum pressure ever observed in the Atlantic Basin and is followed by the 888 mb minimum pressure associated with hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However...one must be very careful before it is declared a record minimum pressure until a full and detailed calibration of the instruments and calculations is performed. So please do not jump into conclusions yet...be patient.
Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane (third of the season -c) that is moving over very warm waters...typical of the northwestern Caribbean Sea...and within an environment of light shear. However...despite the favorable large scale environment...Wilma is near its maximum potential intensity and further strengthening is not anticipated. Most likely...the small eye will collapse followed by slight weakening or some fluctuations in intensity. Eyewall replacement cycles will likely control the intensity for the next 2 to 3 days while the hurricane is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter...once Wilma reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and encounters the westerlies and high shear...weakening should begin.
--------
We have nothing to worry about. There is no worry. There is nothing going on. Nothing is new or different or bizarre in the slightest, and it's purely random circumstance. Purely. Random. Circumstances. No loaded dice here whatsoever. Nothing at all abnormal - we have category 5s every year. Massively destructive hurricanes - eh, been there, done that.
By the way, Wilma was only a Category 1 this morning, predicted to be a low Cat 3 at most...
Looks like northwest Cuba and the Yucatan could get pretty socked...probably not the US so much this time... well, except for south Florida... and it won't be Cat 5 by the time it gets there.
Part of me, woken by fiancee in stupor when fiancee was having MMO social problems, semi-tripping out on sugar and with the munchies, started thinking about dropskunks, small inflatable skunks that one would drop out of planes to measure wind speed (in millimeeps). ...I've got to go back to bed.
Wilma is a catastrophic category five hurricane (third of the season -c) that is moving over very warm waters...typical of the northwestern Caribbean Sea...and within an environment of light shear. However...despite the favorable large scale environment...Wilma is near its maximum potential intensity and further strengthening is not anticipated. Most likely...the small eye will collapse followed by slight weakening or some fluctuations in intensity. Eyewall replacement cycles will likely control the intensity for the next 2 to 3 days while the hurricane is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter...once Wilma reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and encounters the westerlies and high shear...weakening should begin.
--------
We have nothing to worry about. There is no worry. There is nothing going on. Nothing is new or different or bizarre in the slightest, and it's purely random circumstance. Purely. Random. Circumstances. No loaded dice here whatsoever. Nothing at all abnormal - we have category 5s every year. Massively destructive hurricanes - eh, been there, done that.
By the way, Wilma was only a Category 1 this morning, predicted to be a low Cat 3 at most...
Looks like northwest Cuba and the Yucatan could get pretty socked...probably not the US so much this time... well, except for south Florida... and it won't be Cat 5 by the time it gets there.
Part of me, woken by fiancee in stupor when fiancee was having MMO social problems, semi-tripping out on sugar and with the munchies, started thinking about dropskunks, small inflatable skunks that one would drop out of planes to measure wind speed (in millimeeps). ...I've got to go back to bed.