I will unfortunately not be in New Delhi on 17th April, when the Olympic torch is scheduled to pass through the Indian capital. I have a strong feeling though, that it will invite a lot more trouble on it's relay around India Gate than it has thus far, in other cities around the world - in Paris, London, etc. The Olympic torch relay has already been an unmitigated disaster for China in publicity / diplomatic terms, and I think the relay through India will attract the most negative publicity.
India is host to the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan-Government-in-exile and a huge population of Tibetan refugees. There are already precedents of Tibetans immolating themselves during the recent visit of the Chinese Premier to India and I foresee the same happening on the 17th in Delhi. Despite India giving the Olympic torch the same security status as a visiting Head of State(!) replete with National Security Guard Commandos and helicopters, etc (which is rank absurd!), I imagine they will need riot police to quell the thousands that will descend from Dharamshala to make their statement on the international media stage. India's most famous footballer - Baichung Bhutia - a Buddhist himself, has withdrawn from the relay. Today,
Kiran Bedi, India's most famous policewoman withdrew. Other celebrities who will be involved in the relay are under tremendous pressure to withdraw - there are already entire news episodes dedicated to discussing actor Aamir Khan's "hypocrisy" in taking part in the relay.
It's unfortunate that this year's Olympics will be less about sport and more about China's "misdealings" in Tibet, Sudan, Xinjiang, Taiwan, etc. But China has had this coming for a long time, with it's appalling human rights record and lack of a free media. As an Indian, it's been rather fascinating observing the tight-rope the Indian Government has had to walk, during this entire recent Tibet drama. India has irked China ever since Jawaharlal Nehru granted refuge to the Dalai Lama after his dramatic escape from Lhasa in 1950. The Tibetan Government-in-exile functions freely from Dharamshala and thousands of Tibetan refugees live in India. Despite multiple border disputes (China states that the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh belongs to them), ties have warmed recently between the Dragon and Tiger as they have both taken their places on the global stage as economic superpowers. India can not openly condemn China on Tibet, like other countries recently have, for multiple reasons. For starters, India can not lend support to a "Free" / independent Tibet, because it is already grappling with separatist elements in several of its own states from Kashmir to Assam. India can't openly condemn China's human rights record, particularly in Tibet, because a lot of human rights abuses perpetrated by the Indian Army in Kashmir will then become an object of discussion. India also is loathe to jeopardise it's ties with China which have only recently begun to thaw.
What China can learn from India however, as my friend
Abhi has recently blogged about, is the importance of a free media and a culture that allows for people to openly express dissent. India also attempts / aspires to be a democracy which preserves the cultural identities of its constituent parts / people / minorities and allows them religious freedom. This isn't the case in Tibet specifically and other parts of China where human rights and religious freedom are severely restricted - China *selects* the Dalai and Panchen Lama through a Government-run selection process(!) and appoints it's own Heads of churches rejecting the Vatican's appointees.
There are 120 days to go before the Opening Ceremony and I figure this is only the beginning of what will be a maelstrom of protests, and the inevitable death/imprisonment of a number of the protestors.
The biggest losers though, will unfortunately be the athletes, whose performance on sports greatest stage is likely to be overshadowed by these other events