OTB
This year, I’m running an office Oscar pool for the English group. I just realized that because I suggested it, I will look like a giant toolshed if I win. Oh well.
Anyway, I’ve been working on this long post all week. Here are my predictions and preferences for Sunday’s awards, excluding the shorts categories. I have some predictions/guesses for those based on what I read, and I’ll give them to you if you’re consulting my livejournal for your office pool. Which you would be wise to do, of course. It’s strictly an exercise in gambling, as I only really care about the animated shorts, and never see all of them before the awards.
As always, screw LJ-cut, I’m hanging out on your friends pages.
ART DIRECTION:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
Will Win: Voters usually take this category to mean “prettiest rooms,” so that suggests The Aviator, but I think A Very Long Engagement will win for its variety of period locations.
Should Win: Someone made an excellent crack a few weeks ago about Phantom’s nomination confusing “best” art direction with “most” art direction. Heartily agreed. Anyway, I tend to prefer fantastical creations for this award, and Lemony Snicket was the most imaginative.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Aviator
House of Flying Daggers
The Passion of the Christ
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
Will Win: The Aviator. 11 nominations means tech people liked what they saw.
Should Win: The Aviator, those colors were great, and can I put in a second and louder protest vote for Phantom’s cinematography, which I’d categorize as not just middling but actively bad.
COSTUME DESIGN:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket
Ray
Troy
Will Win: The Aviator -- it has a big cast and all of them wear costumes. You think that sounds simplistic? Then you’re on your way to making Oscar predictions of your own!
Should Win: Hmm. The Life Aquatic, which quite sensibly won the Costume Guild award. I don’t really have an opinion about the actual nominees except that it shouldn’t be Ray.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Born Into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Ressurection
Twist of Faith
Will Win: Born Into Brothels
Should Win: I’ve only seen Super Size Me and I didn’t love it, so I don’t care.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2
Will and Should Win: The Incredibles, biznatch. Despite Shrek’s (undeserved) win a few years ago, the sequel was pretty much a faded memory once Brad Bird’s kickassterpiece showed up.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
As It is in Heaven
The Chorus
Downfall
The Sea Inside
Yesterday
Will Win: The Sea Inside, probably. I think if Downfall came to theaters a few weeks ago instead of a few days ago, it would have some upset momentum.
Should Win: N/A, I saw none.
FILM EDITING:
The Aviator
Collateral
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Will Win: Oddly, three-hour movies usually have no trouble winning this, but I think the tightness of Million Dollar Baby gives it the edge.
Should Win: That one, or Collateral.
MAKEUP:
Lemony Snicket
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside
Will Win: Lemony Snicket for being the only one where the death as it at least semi-amusing.
Should Win: Ditto.
SCORE:
Finding Neverland
Harry Potter and the Best Movie So Far
Lemony Snicket
The Passion of the Christ
The Village
Will Win: Finding Neverland, because the voters will remember the emotional parts (even if they can’t remember the actual score - I can’t).
Should Win: Don’t really care. Actually, The Village.
SONG:
"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS
Will Win: They wrote that Phantom tune pretty much explicitly to win an Oscar, so it would be rude of the voters not to oblige.
Should Win: God, this is bleak. And non-English Best Song nominees are officially a trend. What happened to that fucking song from Alfie, idiots? I guess I wouldn’t mind seeing Duritz make an ass of himself if he wins. Do you think he can work a yeeeaaaaahhhh into the acceptance speech? You know, Beyonce is singing a bunch of the nominated songs, give her an award!
SOUND EDITING:
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-man 2
Will Win: Spider-man 2 because it was noisy.
Should Win: Either of the superhero things are fine.
SOUND MIXING:
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-man 2
Will Win: The Aviator
Should Win: Shrug. Again, I like superheroes.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
Harry Potter
I, Robot
Spider-man 2
Will Win: Spider-man 2
Should Win: Ditto. I was watching a bit of it on DVD the other day, and while you can occasionally see the CGI seams, the effects stuff really does look nice. Although: that Hippogriff in Harry Potter was fantastic.
BEST ACTOR:
Don Cheadle
Johnny Depp
Leonardo DiCaprio
Clint Eastwood
Jamie Foxx
Will Win: Jamie Foxx. Eastwood or Cheadle could act as spoiler, but Foxx should have it all sewn up.
Should Win: Any of these would really be fine. Cheadle and Depp have been better in other stuff, though, and Foxx did have the impersonation factor to fall back on. Eastwood did career-best work but it’s still well within the Eastwood Persona. If I were voting, I’d probably vote for DiCaprio, go figure.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Alda
Thomas Haden Church
Jamie Foxx
Morgan Freeman
Clive Owen
Will Win: Morgan Freeman. The guy is old and he doesn’t have an Oscar yet. I think Church and Owen have equal chances of a possible upset, but not likely.
Should Win: Freeman really is good in Baby, but Clive Owen just owned in Closer.
BEST ACTRESS:
Annette Bening
Catalina Sandino Moreno
Imelda Staunton
Hilary Swank
Kate Winslet
Will Win: Everyone says Bening vs. Swank, but can you picture anyone voting for Bening for any other reason than Swank has already won? And if they’re going to ditch Swank for that reason, I think they’re just as likely to go for Staunton (and hey, Winslet doesn’t have an Oscar either, and contributes a lot more to acting than Bening). Regardless of who comes in second, I think Swank has this. Staunton is the potential spoiler - the voters do clearly like that slog-looking movie.
Should Win: Swank! Winslet was also great.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett
Laura Linney
Virginia Madsen
Sophie Okonedo
Natalie Portman
Will Win: Blanchett seems to be overtaking Madsen…
Should Win: … and that seems to bother some people, who see Madsen as much more deserving. I could buy only that Blanchett will be back, with meatier and more original parts, and so they could wait to give her a statue. But I *still* wouldn’t vote for Madsen. Can someone please explain to me what she did in Sideways that warrants serious righteous indignation if she loses here? Even if you like that wine speech she gives, don’t you want to give it up for the screenplay? I mean, she didn’t screw it up, but so what. Blanchett made a real sympathetic character out of an impersonation. I’d vote for her or Natalie.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways
Will Win: This is probably where Alexander Payne gets his consolation prize for Sideways.
Should Win: Toss-up between the front-runner and the possible spoiler; I love Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor but I don’t think this is their best work.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake
Will Win: See, this is where Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind should get the actually-great award disguised as a screenplay award. Previous recipients include such movies as Pulp Fiction, Fargo, and Lost in Translation. Except I have this sinking feeling that Sideways “counts” as that semi-indie award this year, and Eternal Sunshine may be consigned to the “nomination is the reward” status of past too-smart-for-Academy nominees like Ghost World, The Royal Tenenbaums, Election and, most frighteningly, Being John Malkovich and Adaptation, the other two Kaufman scripts to somehow lose Best Screenplay awards. Basically: Kaufman is due, the competition here isn’t the strongest (the only other really great script here is The Incredibles, which will face the usual animation prejudices), it’s a great script, and he’ll *probably* win. But I predict that mainly to avoid breaking my own heart. I have a suspicion that something like Hotel Rwanda, despite being barely written at all, will sneak in as *that* movie’s consolation prize. But officially, I’m going to bet on my favorite, just like I bet on Moulin Rouge for picture in 2001 (and that was the last time I *won* an Oscar pool, so go figure).
Should Win: Duh.
DIRECTOR:
Martin Scorsese
Clint Eastwood
Taylor Hackford
Alexander Payne
Mike Leigh
Will Win: I really wanted to predict a split here. Voters are obviously more comfortable with picture/director splits than they used to be. It happened in (movie years) 1998, 2000, and 2002. Usually, the splashier and more “enjoyable” movie (Shakespeare in Love, Gladiator, Chicago) wins picture, and the darker and/or artier movie wins director (Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, The Pianist). In this case, that would indicate The Aviator for picture and Million Dollar Baby for director.
But hold on: half of the story of The Aviator is that it’s a Scorsese picture, and that this is his fifth nomination with no previous wins (I think the real craziness is that he was only nominated four other times - did you know he wasn’t nominated for Taxi Driver?). So, OK, fine, maybe Baby for picture, Aviator for director. But *both* movies are seen as “director’s” movies. It’s not like Chicago where no one really knows and/or gives a crap who Rob Marshall is (it’s also not like Chicago because both movies are really good).
So how could Baby, which is identified so closely as Eastwood’s project, lose director if it has enough voters to win picture? Maybe it’ll just lose both, but Eastwood’s nomination suggests real support, and it does have more of an emotional impact than Scorsese’s film. Plus, an anonymous actor said something in Entertainment Weekly that struck me as interesting/important: He said that it’s a mistake to think of Scorsese the way you’d think of an actor who hasn’t ever won (Pacino, Penn), because voters (the largest block of which are actors) don’t “identify” with the director, not seeing him up on screen. Thus, Pacino in a decent (but far from best) performance gets them to think, aw, it’s our buddy Pacino, he hasn’t won yet! But a director making a strong (but far from best) film doesn’t win that kind of instinctive sympathy. This may be why Randy Newman was able to go something like 15 times without winning (a minor example, but still).
Then maybe we *could* see a picture/director split, where the darker/artier movie gets director (Eastwood), and the brighter and more traditionally “epic” movie gets picture via strong support from all the tech people. But tech people aren’t the largest voting block - actors are.
So, still seesawing, I’d guess Baby for picture and director, while acknowledging that either split is a distinct possibility. But saying something like that sounds like I’m trying to predict three different things, so I’ll call it: Eastwood and his Baby will both win.
Should Win: Eastwood, Scorsese, and Payne are all great directors. I liked Eastwood’s movie the best, but if I were voting, I might vote for Scorsese out of spite. I’ve never seen a Mike Leigh movie, but I have seen a few Taylor Hackford movies, and let me tell you: I prefer The Devil’s Advocate to Ray. I don’t get how his peers put him in the final five, unless a lot of them just didn’t see Ray.
BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
Will Win: Million Dollar Baby; see above. The Aviator does have a real shot based on pure voter laziness. As choices for Best Director seem to have gotten a bit more idiosyncratic in recent years, Best Picture choices have gotten worse than ever. I can’t think of a less deserving streak than Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, Chicago, and Return of the King (King is the best of the bunch, and I was not a big LOTR fan). The Aviator is way better than those movies, but it also superficially resembles them. But it’s probably too good to give the voters whatever warm and un-queasy feeling Gladiator bestowed upon them. Just be glad it wasn’t Russell Crowe playing Howard Hughes.
Should Win: Baby is the best of the five. But really, all of them except Ray are fine movies. All five have one thing in common: Not being better than Eternal Sunshine or The Incredibles.
So I think Baby will take picture, director, editing, actress, and supporting actor, going five for seven. Aviator will wind up with cinematography, supporting actress, costumes, and sound, four in all. The rest of the BP nominees will get one apiece.
Anyway, I’ve been working on this long post all week. Here are my predictions and preferences for Sunday’s awards, excluding the shorts categories. I have some predictions/guesses for those based on what I read, and I’ll give them to you if you’re consulting my livejournal for your office pool. Which you would be wise to do, of course. It’s strictly an exercise in gambling, as I only really care about the animated shorts, and never see all of them before the awards.
As always, screw LJ-cut, I’m hanging out on your friends pages.
ART DIRECTION:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
Will Win: Voters usually take this category to mean “prettiest rooms,” so that suggests The Aviator, but I think A Very Long Engagement will win for its variety of period locations.
Should Win: Someone made an excellent crack a few weeks ago about Phantom’s nomination confusing “best” art direction with “most” art direction. Heartily agreed. Anyway, I tend to prefer fantastical creations for this award, and Lemony Snicket was the most imaginative.
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
The Aviator
House of Flying Daggers
The Passion of the Christ
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
Will Win: The Aviator. 11 nominations means tech people liked what they saw.
Should Win: The Aviator, those colors were great, and can I put in a second and louder protest vote for Phantom’s cinematography, which I’d categorize as not just middling but actively bad.
COSTUME DESIGN:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket
Ray
Troy
Will Win: The Aviator -- it has a big cast and all of them wear costumes. You think that sounds simplistic? Then you’re on your way to making Oscar predictions of your own!
Should Win: Hmm. The Life Aquatic, which quite sensibly won the Costume Guild award. I don’t really have an opinion about the actual nominees except that it shouldn’t be Ray.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Born Into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Ressurection
Twist of Faith
Will Win: Born Into Brothels
Should Win: I’ve only seen Super Size Me and I didn’t love it, so I don’t care.
ANIMATED FEATURE:
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2
Will and Should Win: The Incredibles, biznatch. Despite Shrek’s (undeserved) win a few years ago, the sequel was pretty much a faded memory once Brad Bird’s kickassterpiece showed up.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
As It is in Heaven
The Chorus
Downfall
The Sea Inside
Yesterday
Will Win: The Sea Inside, probably. I think if Downfall came to theaters a few weeks ago instead of a few days ago, it would have some upset momentum.
Should Win: N/A, I saw none.
FILM EDITING:
The Aviator
Collateral
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Will Win: Oddly, three-hour movies usually have no trouble winning this, but I think the tightness of Million Dollar Baby gives it the edge.
Should Win: That one, or Collateral.
MAKEUP:
Lemony Snicket
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside
Will Win: Lemony Snicket for being the only one where the death as it at least semi-amusing.
Should Win: Ditto.
SCORE:
Finding Neverland
Harry Potter and the Best Movie So Far
Lemony Snicket
The Passion of the Christ
The Village
Will Win: Finding Neverland, because the voters will remember the emotional parts (even if they can’t remember the actual score - I can’t).
Should Win: Don’t really care. Actually, The Village.
SONG:
"Accidentally In Love" - SHREK 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" - THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
"Believe" - THE POLAR EXPRESS
"Learn To Be Lonely" - THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" - THE CHORUS
Will Win: They wrote that Phantom tune pretty much explicitly to win an Oscar, so it would be rude of the voters not to oblige.
Should Win: God, this is bleak. And non-English Best Song nominees are officially a trend. What happened to that fucking song from Alfie, idiots? I guess I wouldn’t mind seeing Duritz make an ass of himself if he wins. Do you think he can work a yeeeaaaaahhhh into the acceptance speech? You know, Beyonce is singing a bunch of the nominated songs, give her an award!
SOUND EDITING:
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-man 2
Will Win: Spider-man 2 because it was noisy.
Should Win: Either of the superhero things are fine.
SOUND MIXING:
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-man 2
Will Win: The Aviator
Should Win: Shrug. Again, I like superheroes.
VISUAL EFFECTS:
Harry Potter
I, Robot
Spider-man 2
Will Win: Spider-man 2
Should Win: Ditto. I was watching a bit of it on DVD the other day, and while you can occasionally see the CGI seams, the effects stuff really does look nice. Although: that Hippogriff in Harry Potter was fantastic.
BEST ACTOR:
Don Cheadle
Johnny Depp
Leonardo DiCaprio
Clint Eastwood
Jamie Foxx
Will Win: Jamie Foxx. Eastwood or Cheadle could act as spoiler, but Foxx should have it all sewn up.
Should Win: Any of these would really be fine. Cheadle and Depp have been better in other stuff, though, and Foxx did have the impersonation factor to fall back on. Eastwood did career-best work but it’s still well within the Eastwood Persona. If I were voting, I’d probably vote for DiCaprio, go figure.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Alda
Thomas Haden Church
Jamie Foxx
Morgan Freeman
Clive Owen
Will Win: Morgan Freeman. The guy is old and he doesn’t have an Oscar yet. I think Church and Owen have equal chances of a possible upset, but not likely.
Should Win: Freeman really is good in Baby, but Clive Owen just owned in Closer.
BEST ACTRESS:
Annette Bening
Catalina Sandino Moreno
Imelda Staunton
Hilary Swank
Kate Winslet
Will Win: Everyone says Bening vs. Swank, but can you picture anyone voting for Bening for any other reason than Swank has already won? And if they’re going to ditch Swank for that reason, I think they’re just as likely to go for Staunton (and hey, Winslet doesn’t have an Oscar either, and contributes a lot more to acting than Bening). Regardless of who comes in second, I think Swank has this. Staunton is the potential spoiler - the voters do clearly like that slog-looking movie.
Should Win: Swank! Winslet was also great.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett
Laura Linney
Virginia Madsen
Sophie Okonedo
Natalie Portman
Will Win: Blanchett seems to be overtaking Madsen…
Should Win: … and that seems to bother some people, who see Madsen as much more deserving. I could buy only that Blanchett will be back, with meatier and more original parts, and so they could wait to give her a statue. But I *still* wouldn’t vote for Madsen. Can someone please explain to me what she did in Sideways that warrants serious righteous indignation if she loses here? Even if you like that wine speech she gives, don’t you want to give it up for the screenplay? I mean, she didn’t screw it up, but so what. Blanchett made a real sympathetic character out of an impersonation. I’d vote for her or Natalie.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways
Will Win: This is probably where Alexander Payne gets his consolation prize for Sideways.
Should Win: Toss-up between the front-runner and the possible spoiler; I love Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor but I don’t think this is their best work.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Hotel Rwanda
The Incredibles
Vera Drake
Will Win: See, this is where Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind should get the actually-great award disguised as a screenplay award. Previous recipients include such movies as Pulp Fiction, Fargo, and Lost in Translation. Except I have this sinking feeling that Sideways “counts” as that semi-indie award this year, and Eternal Sunshine may be consigned to the “nomination is the reward” status of past too-smart-for-Academy nominees like Ghost World, The Royal Tenenbaums, Election and, most frighteningly, Being John Malkovich and Adaptation, the other two Kaufman scripts to somehow lose Best Screenplay awards. Basically: Kaufman is due, the competition here isn’t the strongest (the only other really great script here is The Incredibles, which will face the usual animation prejudices), it’s a great script, and he’ll *probably* win. But I predict that mainly to avoid breaking my own heart. I have a suspicion that something like Hotel Rwanda, despite being barely written at all, will sneak in as *that* movie’s consolation prize. But officially, I’m going to bet on my favorite, just like I bet on Moulin Rouge for picture in 2001 (and that was the last time I *won* an Oscar pool, so go figure).
Should Win: Duh.
DIRECTOR:
Martin Scorsese
Clint Eastwood
Taylor Hackford
Alexander Payne
Mike Leigh
Will Win: I really wanted to predict a split here. Voters are obviously more comfortable with picture/director splits than they used to be. It happened in (movie years) 1998, 2000, and 2002. Usually, the splashier and more “enjoyable” movie (Shakespeare in Love, Gladiator, Chicago) wins picture, and the darker and/or artier movie wins director (Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, The Pianist). In this case, that would indicate The Aviator for picture and Million Dollar Baby for director.
But hold on: half of the story of The Aviator is that it’s a Scorsese picture, and that this is his fifth nomination with no previous wins (I think the real craziness is that he was only nominated four other times - did you know he wasn’t nominated for Taxi Driver?). So, OK, fine, maybe Baby for picture, Aviator for director. But *both* movies are seen as “director’s” movies. It’s not like Chicago where no one really knows and/or gives a crap who Rob Marshall is (it’s also not like Chicago because both movies are really good).
So how could Baby, which is identified so closely as Eastwood’s project, lose director if it has enough voters to win picture? Maybe it’ll just lose both, but Eastwood’s nomination suggests real support, and it does have more of an emotional impact than Scorsese’s film. Plus, an anonymous actor said something in Entertainment Weekly that struck me as interesting/important: He said that it’s a mistake to think of Scorsese the way you’d think of an actor who hasn’t ever won (Pacino, Penn), because voters (the largest block of which are actors) don’t “identify” with the director, not seeing him up on screen. Thus, Pacino in a decent (but far from best) performance gets them to think, aw, it’s our buddy Pacino, he hasn’t won yet! But a director making a strong (but far from best) film doesn’t win that kind of instinctive sympathy. This may be why Randy Newman was able to go something like 15 times without winning (a minor example, but still).
Then maybe we *could* see a picture/director split, where the darker/artier movie gets director (Eastwood), and the brighter and more traditionally “epic” movie gets picture via strong support from all the tech people. But tech people aren’t the largest voting block - actors are.
So, still seesawing, I’d guess Baby for picture and director, while acknowledging that either split is a distinct possibility. But saying something like that sounds like I’m trying to predict three different things, so I’ll call it: Eastwood and his Baby will both win.
Should Win: Eastwood, Scorsese, and Payne are all great directors. I liked Eastwood’s movie the best, but if I were voting, I might vote for Scorsese out of spite. I’ve never seen a Mike Leigh movie, but I have seen a few Taylor Hackford movies, and let me tell you: I prefer The Devil’s Advocate to Ray. I don’t get how his peers put him in the final five, unless a lot of them just didn’t see Ray.
BEST PICTURE
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways
Will Win: Million Dollar Baby; see above. The Aviator does have a real shot based on pure voter laziness. As choices for Best Director seem to have gotten a bit more idiosyncratic in recent years, Best Picture choices have gotten worse than ever. I can’t think of a less deserving streak than Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, Chicago, and Return of the King (King is the best of the bunch, and I was not a big LOTR fan). The Aviator is way better than those movies, but it also superficially resembles them. But it’s probably too good to give the voters whatever warm and un-queasy feeling Gladiator bestowed upon them. Just be glad it wasn’t Russell Crowe playing Howard Hughes.
Should Win: Baby is the best of the five. But really, all of them except Ray are fine movies. All five have one thing in common: Not being better than Eternal Sunshine or The Incredibles.
So I think Baby will take picture, director, editing, actress, and supporting actor, going five for seven. Aviator will wind up with cinematography, supporting actress, costumes, and sound, four in all. The rest of the BP nominees will get one apiece.