Some moderately hopeful news
Apparently an outfit called Petrosun Biofuels has opened an algal biodiesel farm on 1831 acres near Rio Hondo, TX, of which 1100 acres are ponds. They claim that they will be able to produce 4.4 million gallons/yr of algal oil plus 110 million lbs/yr of biomass. No word on labor requirements or EROEI, which is troubling but not surprising given the relatively experimental status. Let's assume for a moment that their production estimates are real, and look at what the scale-up looks like to cover current demand in the US, which is 27 mbpd crude.
4.4 million gallons is 142,000 barrels. Therefore, to make a years supply of oil would require 69,400 farms of this side, covering about 200,000 square miles (120k if you only count the pond area -- I'm assuming the same land efficiency for argument). That's a lot of land area... but only about 6.5% of the land area of the continental US. That's probably too much land for a complete replacement of oil, but enough to replace a substantial component and allow for future growth without significant reduction in economic output or standard of living. That also assumes that the EROEI of the algal oil is similar to that for crude (20-30, depending on field, substantially lower for some sources, such as deep offshore and tar sands); if it's substantially lower, than the required area rises substantially. Of course genetic manipulaion of algal strains along with improved growing and extraction technologies have the potential to raise yields substantially.
Also, another concern is how fast a technology like this can ramp. At what ramp rate do you start to see serious limitations imposed by supplies of concrete and skilled workers?
Press release: http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080324/0378475.html
Google maps view of farm: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=26.304188,-97.447271&spn=0.056092,0.114155&t=h&z=14
Petrosun's website: http://www.petrosuninc.com
4.4 million gallons is 142,000 barrels. Therefore, to make a years supply of oil would require 69,400 farms of this side, covering about 200,000 square miles (120k if you only count the pond area -- I'm assuming the same land efficiency for argument). That's a lot of land area... but only about 6.5% of the land area of the continental US. That's probably too much land for a complete replacement of oil, but enough to replace a substantial component and allow for future growth without significant reduction in economic output or standard of living. That also assumes that the EROEI of the algal oil is similar to that for crude (20-30, depending on field, substantially lower for some sources, such as deep offshore and tar sands); if it's substantially lower, than the required area rises substantially. Of course genetic manipulaion of algal strains along with improved growing and extraction technologies have the potential to raise yields substantially.
Also, another concern is how fast a technology like this can ramp. At what ramp rate do you start to see serious limitations imposed by supplies of concrete and skilled workers?
Press release: http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080324/0378475.html
Google maps view of farm: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=26.304188,-97.447271&spn=0.056092,0.114155&t=h&z=14
Petrosun's website: http://www.petrosuninc.com