Electoral Map of October 30
Electoral map, cartogram, whatever, with the nifty new shape:
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States that have moved in McCain's direction (visibly, that is, with a color change): IN, MO, OH, SD, WV.
States that have moved in Obama's direction (again, with color change): AZ (??), GA, NV, NH, NM.
Note that some of these moves are reversals of moves we saw last week.
I still think that the crescent from North Carolina to Indiana is going to decide the election. Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com, says that an Obama win of, say, North Carolina probably means that McCain is finished, whereas a McCain win of Pennsylvania probably means that we'll be up until 4 a.m. again. He also says that Virginia and Colorado are the real "tipping points." Silver runs 10,000 simulations based on the most current polling data and trends, and apparently Virginia agrees with the overall outcome in something like 48% of them, more than any other single state. But if McCain pulls Pennsylvania out of his hat (which looks pretty unlikely right now, but is clearly his goal) that could alter the outcome.
Remember that these polls are all at least two days old, some of them five or six days old (and some of the very red and very blue states haven't had any polls in several weeks). Remember, too, that Kerry looked like he was going to win in 2004, and that Gore did much better in 2000 than the polls predicted (but not better, ahem, than I predicted). Lopsided as this map looks right now, things can change very fast.
An external event (the financial implosion of late September and afterward) pushed the polls heavily in Obama's direction. Another external event (say, a terrorist attack or another Bin Laden video) could push them in McCain's direction.
On Saturday the spouse and I are dragging the Offspring Units to New Hampshire, where we will do some door-to-door canvassing for Obama. My old viewers will remember that I flew to Florida in 2004 to do the same thing for Kerry. NH is looking pretty good for Obama right now, but its polls over time have been something like an EKG and it's the closest thing to a swing state within day-trip distance.
I intend to post another map on Monday night, with (ulp!) predictions to accompany it. That's so Jenny can make fun of me for getting it wrong again...
***
States that have moved in McCain's direction (visibly, that is, with a color change): IN, MO, OH, SD, WV.
States that have moved in Obama's direction (again, with color change): AZ (??), GA, NV, NH, NM.
Note that some of these moves are reversals of moves we saw last week.
I still think that the crescent from North Carolina to Indiana is going to decide the election. Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com, says that an Obama win of, say, North Carolina probably means that McCain is finished, whereas a McCain win of Pennsylvania probably means that we'll be up until 4 a.m. again. He also says that Virginia and Colorado are the real "tipping points." Silver runs 10,000 simulations based on the most current polling data and trends, and apparently Virginia agrees with the overall outcome in something like 48% of them, more than any other single state. But if McCain pulls Pennsylvania out of his hat (which looks pretty unlikely right now, but is clearly his goal) that could alter the outcome.
Remember that these polls are all at least two days old, some of them five or six days old (and some of the very red and very blue states haven't had any polls in several weeks). Remember, too, that Kerry looked like he was going to win in 2004, and that Gore did much better in 2000 than the polls predicted (but not better, ahem, than I predicted). Lopsided as this map looks right now, things can change very fast.
An external event (the financial implosion of late September and afterward) pushed the polls heavily in Obama's direction. Another external event (say, a terrorist attack or another Bin Laden video) could push them in McCain's direction.
On Saturday the spouse and I are dragging the Offspring Units to New Hampshire, where we will do some door-to-door canvassing for Obama. My old viewers will remember that I flew to Florida in 2004 to do the same thing for Kerry. NH is looking pretty good for Obama right now, but its polls over time have been something like an EKG and it's the closest thing to a swing state within day-trip distance.
I intend to post another map on Monday night, with (ulp!) predictions to accompany it. That's so Jenny can make fun of me for getting it wrong again...