[LINK] "Making Babies Makes a Comeback"

[rfmcdpei]

Bloomberg View's Noah Smith makes the argument that the fertility J-curve might yet lead to a global fertility recovery.

Japan’s government mistakenly forecast that fertility would bounce back…until 1997. Somewhere around the turn of the century, the government wised up, and realized that the fertility rate was not about to bounce back. If you

Comments

[ext_267620]

It could be that fertility rates run in generational cycles. People born during low-fertility times, who grew up in small families in neighborhoods with few children their age, might be more prone to having more children when they are adults. And vice versa.

[rfmcdpei]

Who knows? The dip in fertility rates in much of the world has been quite deep and sustained, though. A simple shift to replacement-level fertility won't fix things.