[LINK] "Russian Grip Haunts Kazakhs Trying to Escape Ukraine’s Fate"
Nariman Gizitdinov and Henry Meyer at Bloomberg note that many in Kazakhstan fear for the future of their booming but ethnically divided country after their president Nursultan Nazarbayev leaves power. The commenter who suggests that the continued numerical growth of a Kazakh majority might diminish the risk of conflict overlooks, I think, the concentration of much of the Russian minority in Russian-majority districts immediately adjoining Russia proper.
The risk of domination from China or Russia is “like living in a cage with a dragon or a bear -- it will bite you,” Dosym Satpayev, director of the Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group said in an interview. “If Kazakhstan is seen as in only Russia’s sphere of influence, we’re lost.”
[. . .]
With no anointed heir to 74-year-old Nazarbayev, who’s ruled since independence in 1991, uncertainty over the future was acknowledged in a sovereign bond prospectus in September. Should he leave office “without a smooth transfer to a successor,” the “political situation and economy could become unstable,” according to the document.
Russia may have spotted a potential opportunity to cement ties with Kazakhstan when Nazarbayev departs. A study for Russian government officials, conducted last year and obtained by Bloomberg, suggested his succession offers a “beneficial background to promote moderate values of Eurasian integration.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin jangled nerves when he told students at a pro-Kremlin youth camp on Aug. 29 that Nazarbayev had created a state “where there’s never been a state” and that the “vast majority of the citizens of Kazakhstan favor stronger ties with Russia.”
His remarks may be interpreted to mean a state “that’s appeared thanks to one person can disappear thanks to another,” Carnegie Moscow analyst Alexei Malashenko said in his blog.
The risk of domination from China or Russia is “like living in a cage with a dragon or a bear -- it will bite you,” Dosym Satpayev, director of the Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group said in an interview. “If Kazakhstan is seen as in only Russia’s sphere of influence, we’re lost.”
[. . .]
With no anointed heir to 74-year-old Nazarbayev, who’s ruled since independence in 1991, uncertainty over the future was acknowledged in a sovereign bond prospectus in September. Should he leave office “without a smooth transfer to a successor,” the “political situation and economy could become unstable,” according to the document.
Russia may have spotted a potential opportunity to cement ties with Kazakhstan when Nazarbayev departs. A study for Russian government officials, conducted last year and obtained by Bloomberg, suggested his succession offers a “beneficial background to promote moderate values of Eurasian integration.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin jangled nerves when he told students at a pro-Kremlin youth camp on Aug. 29 that Nazarbayev had created a state “where there’s never been a state” and that the “vast majority of the citizens of Kazakhstan favor stronger ties with Russia.”
His remarks may be interpreted to mean a state “that’s appeared thanks to one person can disappear thanks to another,” Carnegie Moscow analyst Alexei Malashenko said in his blog.