MLB Playoff Predicitons.
Anyways I'v watched way to much baseball all this year, i'v watched all the baseball games I could fit into one day. This is my break down in the Playoff's.
Florida Marlins (losing to the Giants in four games). Florida is hot and on top of the world after winning the wild card, but they are still very young and they have too much of that “just happy to be here” feel to them. I think the Cubs have the same cheesy glow about them, but Florida’s starting pitching isn’t as good as Chicago’s. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior give the Cubbies a much better chance of overcoming their star-struck nature and actually winning some games. My bet is that the Giants take the series 3-1 and that San Francisco’s normally feeble hitting will push across at least six runs in each of those wins. I like Josh Beckett and Brad Penny and I think Dontrelle Willis is great for the game, but I’m predicting that only one of those young pitchers will be able to keep Bonds and company in check.
The only thing that could spin this series in another direction is Beckett. Because he missed so much time at the beginning of the season, he’s fairly rested and starting to come on strong. If he can utilize the extra innings that he still has left in his arm and out pitch Jason Schmidt in Game One, I believe the Fish will be playing a winner-take-all Game Five at Pac Bell. If he can’t duel with the NL’s best starting pitcher, Florida won’t make it out of Miami.
Minnesota Twins (losing to the Yankees in four games). Sure, Minny is hot, but the numbers don’t lie. New York is like 1,000-0 over the last three years against the Twins. They own those guys. I’m not about to break my promise and use the “g” word but this seems like the easiest first round series to call. New York’s starting pitchers have quietly come on strong down the stretch and should be able to keep the Twins’ bats in check. Meanwhile, I don’t think Brad Radke or Kyle Lohse have enough stuff to get through the Yankee order twice unscathed. If they can do it and get to the bullpen with the game still in doubt, I like their chances a lot better. Relief pitchers J.C. Romero and LaTroy Hawkins give the Twins their only real advantage … a battle of the bullpens is really their only shot.
Johan Santana is the real deal for Minnesota and the sheer fact that he would pitch twice in a five game series makes me believe that the Twins have a shot. However, Wells, Clemens, Contreras, and Pettitte all threw better in September than in any other month since April (when Wells was unbelievable). And I didn’t even mention Mike Mussina, the ace of the staff! Plus, New York has the bats. Alfonso Soriano sparks the running game, Nick Johnson gets on base all day long, Derek Jeter finished second in the American League in batting average, Bernie Williams is one of the best postseason hitters in the game, Jorge Posada is the best hitting catcher in the American League, and Jason Giambi is just waiting to explode. I don’t envy the pitcher that has to get through that gauntlet.
I know that people are excited about Minnesota’s hot finish and the “new look” with Shannon Stewart at the top of the order, but things haven’t changed that much. New York is all business and nothing short of the World Series will satisfy them. I don’t know whether they’ll get the rings or not, but I certainly don’t think the run will end in the first round again.
Atlanta Braves (losing to the Cubs in five games). Maybe I’m just biased against the Southeast. No, that can’t be it. Nevertheless, I’m voting another Dirty South squad out. Here’s what I like about Atlanta: Greg Maddux as their #3 starter (which means he pitches opposite Mark Prior in the crucial Game Three), the offense, and John Smoltz refreshed and ready at closer. Here’s what I don’t like: Russ Ortiz as their first starter (does anyone remember Game Two of the 2002 Series?), Mike Hampton being a prominent factor, and the shaky middle relief. The Braves can easily overcome those negatives with their bats, and if Javy Lopez continues to rake like he never has before, they probably will. However, Lopez is still due for the slump that has yet to come this year, and I have a feeling he’s about to fall right in to it. If that happens, the lineup (particularly Andruw Jones) will start to press and guys like Sheffield and Chipper Jones will start to feel the run production burden. Atlanta really needs an explosive offensive attack in the first couple of games to settle everyone down and win the trust of the pitching staff. The only problem with that? The Cubs are rolling out two of the hottest pitchers in the game - Kerry Wood and Mark Prior - for this the series. It’s tough to explode offensively against those guys.
No Game One is bigger than the Atlanta-Chicago game. If the Braves hit Wood hard, they’ll build on that, gain more confidence each game, and probably roll right into the World Series. If Wood comes out smoking and shuts down the Bravos’ bats, it will give his young team a ton of confidence and turn an “alright, we just made the playoffs!” unit into a real contender. Game One is everything to both of these teams. I’m betting it all on Kerry Wood in the Cubs in the opener and therefore, the series. (By the way, Dusty Baker mangled the Giants pitching staff in the World Series last year and if he makes the unforgivable mistake of pitching a fifth starter - see, Shawn Estes - rather than get Wood two starts, I’m changing my pick. In the days of month-long series for TV purposes, there is no reason to go with anything more than a four-man rotation. Don’t do it, Dusty!)
Oakland Athletics (losing to the Red Sox in five games). One of these days, the A’s are going to come into the playoffs with their nasty pitching staff, plodding offense, and shaky defense … and just get hot and win the whole thing. However, they are not the smart bet to go all the way. Billy Beane and the boys in Oakland have built an incredible model for regular season success, but even they will admit that the postseason is a crap shoot as far as the formula goes. Oakland certainly feels due to break through, but everything seems stacked against them.
For starters, they are going to have to deal with a rejuvenated Pedro Martinez. He’s reasserted himself as the scariest pitcher in baseball and could be the biggest factor in this series. Of course, Oakland still has Tim Hudson and Barry Zito to throw a nice counterpunch. I believe that Hudson and Zito will draw a 2-2 split over four games against Pedro and Wakefield/Burkett, but the final edge goes to Derek Lowe over Ted Lilly in Game Three. Lilly has been fantastic down the stretch for Oakland but he’s not Mark Mulder. Additionally, Lowe has been great at Fenway this year and seems poised to deliver a big-time performance in the postseason.
I’m actually arguing against my gut feeling on this one, because deep down I feel that Oakland is due and that Boston is riding just a little too high. However, I think that the Sox’ fantastic offense will be too much for the A’s. And of course, there’s Pedro.
Chicago Cubs (losing to the Giants in five games). I really wanted to go for a Cubs-Red Sox series, but I just don’t see it happening. I think that if the Cubbies went after Bonds and consistently challenged him, they would have a great shot of beating San Francisco. However, I’m guessing that Dusty will work around Barry and put him on base all day … and that will be Chicago’s undoing. All of the pitching around and putting Bonds on base will be an ongoing distraction for the Cubs’ young pitchers and eventually lead to crucial mistakes. Guys like Wood, Prior, and Zambrano are talented enough to go right after people. If they pitch around Bonds too much, it will cost them in the long run.
Another reason I think that the Cubs run stops short of the WS is that their offense is shaky at best. Nobody talks about it, but that lineup is brutal. Sammy is slammin’ away, but Moises Alou looks older than Felipe Alou, Kenny Lofton is out of gas, and guys like Aramis Ramirez and Randall Simon are actually being described as “key contributors.” Uh, oh.
Plus, something about this Giants team just feels illogically right. They lost Ortiz and Livan Hernandez from the pitching staff, they lost Jeff Kent, Reggie “The man who couldn’t hit a high fastball” Sanders, and Lofton, and they even lost Rob Nen to injury. Yet they still won 100 games, took the West wire-to-wire, and come into the playoffs being wildly overlooked. Once they get to the seven game series format, San Fran will be able to roll out Jason Schmidt and Sidney Ponson for five games. When you factor in Bonds, how well they play at Pac Bell, and the “Benito Santiago’s time machine” potential of Edgardo Alfonzo … well, it seems to add up to success for the Giants. I can’t explain it but it just feels right.
New York Yankees (losing to the Red Sox in six games). I can’t believe I’m actually predicting that Boston will beat New York. I’ve just doomed the Red Sox to a painful sweep … I apologize to Sox fans everywhere. However, it is more than just a hunch on which I am basing this pick. I honestly think Boston has the best chance to win the series. We all know they can hit with Bill Mueller and David Ortiz (nobody noticed, but he crushed 21 home runs and posted a .995 OPS after the All-Star break) emerging to complement Manny, Nomar, Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon, and Kevin Millar. The Sox can swing the sticks. Plus, they have Lowe (when he’s in Fenway) and Pedro to match the Yankees’ stellar starting pitcher. Finally, as shaky as Boston’s bullpen has been throughout the season, it is probably still superior to New York’s.
But … it’s still the Red Sox versus the Yankees. Can the BoSox knock off their hated rivals in a big series? Will New York get all the calls and the breaks like they normally do? These are the questions that will determine the outcome of this series. Here’s the thing though, there is a new kind of pressure on the Yanks this year. Steinbrenner is steaming, Torre seems tired, and many of the New York stars seem like they’ve lost the eye of the tiger. It feels like things are about to boil over in that franchise and organization and what better way for it all to happen than being overtaken by Boston? I think baseball is all about storylines. Last year, the Angels screwed everything up - stripping Bonds of his triumphant title and winning a World Series they had no business winning. They didn’t have a World Series caliber pitching staff (starters, that is), they hadn’t earned it by falling short a few times in succession, and they followed it up by finishing 19 games out of first this season, proving what a fluke their title was last year. Other than Anaheim’s unfortunate Series win, baseball usually follows certain storylines. (For instance, the D-Backs winning with Johnson and Schilling … it made sense.) I believe that this year - as much as everyone wants to talk about the Cubs and Red Sox - the storylines focus on the Yankees. Either they are going to roll to another Series win or things are going to fall to pieces. I’m going with the latter and I think it’s going to happen against Boston.
Boston Red Sox (losing to the Giants in seven games). I’m rooting for Boston to do it, I really am. However, I’m going with the Giants for the second year in a row. I think Boston has the momentum and the skill to win ballgames in the postseason, but I believe that their shaky rotation depth and fairly unreliable bullpen will cost them a series eventually. Maybe those elements will get them right off the bat against Oakland, maybe it will never happen it all. My guess is that it will affect them on the grandest stage of all, adding one more near-miss to the Boston record books.
San Francisco Giants (World Series Champs). They should have won it last year, but wound up coughing it up in Game Six. Now, with a new manager and - in many ways - a new team, San Francisco has given themselves another shot at it. The bullpen isn’t as good as a World Series winner’s pen should be, the starting pitching staff lacks a rock solid third stopper (who is going to emerge out of Rueter, Moss, Williams, and company?), and the offense will need even more clutch hitting than it did last year. On paper, this team should never win a title. However, with Bonds playing at a historic level and veterans like J.T. Snow, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Benito Santiago waiting to come through, I think the Giants can get it done. Plus, there are other guys who will contribute that have been flying under the radar. Ray Durham is a sparkplug at the top of the order and has been forgotten because of his injury troubles. Jose Cruz Jr. has talent on offense and might be the best defensive right fielder in the game. Marquis Grissom has improbably played his best baseball since the late 1990’s. Andres Galarraga lurks as a great DH option in the event of World Series play. Plus, Rich Aurillia was terrific in the postseason last year. Then there’s Jason Schmidt, who I believe will emerge as one of baseball’s premier performers during these playoffs. I think San Francisco has what it takes.
Florida Marlins (losing to the Giants in four games). Florida is hot and on top of the world after winning the wild card, but they are still very young and they have too much of that “just happy to be here” feel to them. I think the Cubs have the same cheesy glow about them, but Florida’s starting pitching isn’t as good as Chicago’s. Kerry Wood and Mark Prior give the Cubbies a much better chance of overcoming their star-struck nature and actually winning some games. My bet is that the Giants take the series 3-1 and that San Francisco’s normally feeble hitting will push across at least six runs in each of those wins. I like Josh Beckett and Brad Penny and I think Dontrelle Willis is great for the game, but I’m predicting that only one of those young pitchers will be able to keep Bonds and company in check.
The only thing that could spin this series in another direction is Beckett. Because he missed so much time at the beginning of the season, he’s fairly rested and starting to come on strong. If he can utilize the extra innings that he still has left in his arm and out pitch Jason Schmidt in Game One, I believe the Fish will be playing a winner-take-all Game Five at Pac Bell. If he can’t duel with the NL’s best starting pitcher, Florida won’t make it out of Miami.
Minnesota Twins (losing to the Yankees in four games). Sure, Minny is hot, but the numbers don’t lie. New York is like 1,000-0 over the last three years against the Twins. They own those guys. I’m not about to break my promise and use the “g” word but this seems like the easiest first round series to call. New York’s starting pitchers have quietly come on strong down the stretch and should be able to keep the Twins’ bats in check. Meanwhile, I don’t think Brad Radke or Kyle Lohse have enough stuff to get through the Yankee order twice unscathed. If they can do it and get to the bullpen with the game still in doubt, I like their chances a lot better. Relief pitchers J.C. Romero and LaTroy Hawkins give the Twins their only real advantage … a battle of the bullpens is really their only shot.
Johan Santana is the real deal for Minnesota and the sheer fact that he would pitch twice in a five game series makes me believe that the Twins have a shot. However, Wells, Clemens, Contreras, and Pettitte all threw better in September than in any other month since April (when Wells was unbelievable). And I didn’t even mention Mike Mussina, the ace of the staff! Plus, New York has the bats. Alfonso Soriano sparks the running game, Nick Johnson gets on base all day long, Derek Jeter finished second in the American League in batting average, Bernie Williams is one of the best postseason hitters in the game, Jorge Posada is the best hitting catcher in the American League, and Jason Giambi is just waiting to explode. I don’t envy the pitcher that has to get through that gauntlet.
I know that people are excited about Minnesota’s hot finish and the “new look” with Shannon Stewart at the top of the order, but things haven’t changed that much. New York is all business and nothing short of the World Series will satisfy them. I don’t know whether they’ll get the rings or not, but I certainly don’t think the run will end in the first round again.
Atlanta Braves (losing to the Cubs in five games). Maybe I’m just biased against the Southeast. No, that can’t be it. Nevertheless, I’m voting another Dirty South squad out. Here’s what I like about Atlanta: Greg Maddux as their #3 starter (which means he pitches opposite Mark Prior in the crucial Game Three), the offense, and John Smoltz refreshed and ready at closer. Here’s what I don’t like: Russ Ortiz as their first starter (does anyone remember Game Two of the 2002 Series?), Mike Hampton being a prominent factor, and the shaky middle relief. The Braves can easily overcome those negatives with their bats, and if Javy Lopez continues to rake like he never has before, they probably will. However, Lopez is still due for the slump that has yet to come this year, and I have a feeling he’s about to fall right in to it. If that happens, the lineup (particularly Andruw Jones) will start to press and guys like Sheffield and Chipper Jones will start to feel the run production burden. Atlanta really needs an explosive offensive attack in the first couple of games to settle everyone down and win the trust of the pitching staff. The only problem with that? The Cubs are rolling out two of the hottest pitchers in the game - Kerry Wood and Mark Prior - for this the series. It’s tough to explode offensively against those guys.
No Game One is bigger than the Atlanta-Chicago game. If the Braves hit Wood hard, they’ll build on that, gain more confidence each game, and probably roll right into the World Series. If Wood comes out smoking and shuts down the Bravos’ bats, it will give his young team a ton of confidence and turn an “alright, we just made the playoffs!” unit into a real contender. Game One is everything to both of these teams. I’m betting it all on Kerry Wood in the Cubs in the opener and therefore, the series. (By the way, Dusty Baker mangled the Giants pitching staff in the World Series last year and if he makes the unforgivable mistake of pitching a fifth starter - see, Shawn Estes - rather than get Wood two starts, I’m changing my pick. In the days of month-long series for TV purposes, there is no reason to go with anything more than a four-man rotation. Don’t do it, Dusty!)
Oakland Athletics (losing to the Red Sox in five games). One of these days, the A’s are going to come into the playoffs with their nasty pitching staff, plodding offense, and shaky defense … and just get hot and win the whole thing. However, they are not the smart bet to go all the way. Billy Beane and the boys in Oakland have built an incredible model for regular season success, but even they will admit that the postseason is a crap shoot as far as the formula goes. Oakland certainly feels due to break through, but everything seems stacked against them.
For starters, they are going to have to deal with a rejuvenated Pedro Martinez. He’s reasserted himself as the scariest pitcher in baseball and could be the biggest factor in this series. Of course, Oakland still has Tim Hudson and Barry Zito to throw a nice counterpunch. I believe that Hudson and Zito will draw a 2-2 split over four games against Pedro and Wakefield/Burkett, but the final edge goes to Derek Lowe over Ted Lilly in Game Three. Lilly has been fantastic down the stretch for Oakland but he’s not Mark Mulder. Additionally, Lowe has been great at Fenway this year and seems poised to deliver a big-time performance in the postseason.
I’m actually arguing against my gut feeling on this one, because deep down I feel that Oakland is due and that Boston is riding just a little too high. However, I think that the Sox’ fantastic offense will be too much for the A’s. And of course, there’s Pedro.
Chicago Cubs (losing to the Giants in five games). I really wanted to go for a Cubs-Red Sox series, but I just don’t see it happening. I think that if the Cubbies went after Bonds and consistently challenged him, they would have a great shot of beating San Francisco. However, I’m guessing that Dusty will work around Barry and put him on base all day … and that will be Chicago’s undoing. All of the pitching around and putting Bonds on base will be an ongoing distraction for the Cubs’ young pitchers and eventually lead to crucial mistakes. Guys like Wood, Prior, and Zambrano are talented enough to go right after people. If they pitch around Bonds too much, it will cost them in the long run.
Another reason I think that the Cubs run stops short of the WS is that their offense is shaky at best. Nobody talks about it, but that lineup is brutal. Sammy is slammin’ away, but Moises Alou looks older than Felipe Alou, Kenny Lofton is out of gas, and guys like Aramis Ramirez and Randall Simon are actually being described as “key contributors.” Uh, oh.
Plus, something about this Giants team just feels illogically right. They lost Ortiz and Livan Hernandez from the pitching staff, they lost Jeff Kent, Reggie “The man who couldn’t hit a high fastball” Sanders, and Lofton, and they even lost Rob Nen to injury. Yet they still won 100 games, took the West wire-to-wire, and come into the playoffs being wildly overlooked. Once they get to the seven game series format, San Fran will be able to roll out Jason Schmidt and Sidney Ponson for five games. When you factor in Bonds, how well they play at Pac Bell, and the “Benito Santiago’s time machine” potential of Edgardo Alfonzo … well, it seems to add up to success for the Giants. I can’t explain it but it just feels right.
New York Yankees (losing to the Red Sox in six games). I can’t believe I’m actually predicting that Boston will beat New York. I’ve just doomed the Red Sox to a painful sweep … I apologize to Sox fans everywhere. However, it is more than just a hunch on which I am basing this pick. I honestly think Boston has the best chance to win the series. We all know they can hit with Bill Mueller and David Ortiz (nobody noticed, but he crushed 21 home runs and posted a .995 OPS after the All-Star break) emerging to complement Manny, Nomar, Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon, and Kevin Millar. The Sox can swing the sticks. Plus, they have Lowe (when he’s in Fenway) and Pedro to match the Yankees’ stellar starting pitcher. Finally, as shaky as Boston’s bullpen has been throughout the season, it is probably still superior to New York’s.
But … it’s still the Red Sox versus the Yankees. Can the BoSox knock off their hated rivals in a big series? Will New York get all the calls and the breaks like they normally do? These are the questions that will determine the outcome of this series. Here’s the thing though, there is a new kind of pressure on the Yanks this year. Steinbrenner is steaming, Torre seems tired, and many of the New York stars seem like they’ve lost the eye of the tiger. It feels like things are about to boil over in that franchise and organization and what better way for it all to happen than being overtaken by Boston? I think baseball is all about storylines. Last year, the Angels screwed everything up - stripping Bonds of his triumphant title and winning a World Series they had no business winning. They didn’t have a World Series caliber pitching staff (starters, that is), they hadn’t earned it by falling short a few times in succession, and they followed it up by finishing 19 games out of first this season, proving what a fluke their title was last year. Other than Anaheim’s unfortunate Series win, baseball usually follows certain storylines. (For instance, the D-Backs winning with Johnson and Schilling … it made sense.) I believe that this year - as much as everyone wants to talk about the Cubs and Red Sox - the storylines focus on the Yankees. Either they are going to roll to another Series win or things are going to fall to pieces. I’m going with the latter and I think it’s going to happen against Boston.
Boston Red Sox (losing to the Giants in seven games). I’m rooting for Boston to do it, I really am. However, I’m going with the Giants for the second year in a row. I think Boston has the momentum and the skill to win ballgames in the postseason, but I believe that their shaky rotation depth and fairly unreliable bullpen will cost them a series eventually. Maybe those elements will get them right off the bat against Oakland, maybe it will never happen it all. My guess is that it will affect them on the grandest stage of all, adding one more near-miss to the Boston record books.
San Francisco Giants (World Series Champs). They should have won it last year, but wound up coughing it up in Game Six. Now, with a new manager and - in many ways - a new team, San Francisco has given themselves another shot at it. The bullpen isn’t as good as a World Series winner’s pen should be, the starting pitching staff lacks a rock solid third stopper (who is going to emerge out of Rueter, Moss, Williams, and company?), and the offense will need even more clutch hitting than it did last year. On paper, this team should never win a title. However, with Bonds playing at a historic level and veterans like J.T. Snow, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Benito Santiago waiting to come through, I think the Giants can get it done. Plus, there are other guys who will contribute that have been flying under the radar. Ray Durham is a sparkplug at the top of the order and has been forgotten because of his injury troubles. Jose Cruz Jr. has talent on offense and might be the best defensive right fielder in the game. Marquis Grissom has improbably played his best baseball since the late 1990’s. Andres Galarraga lurks as a great DH option in the event of World Series play. Plus, Rich Aurillia was terrific in the postseason last year. Then there’s Jason Schmidt, who I believe will emerge as one of baseball’s premier performers during these playoffs. I think San Francisco has what it takes.