Tropical Storm Bertha forms!
Tropical Storm Bertha has formed at 11 a.m. this morning! Bertha has sustained winds of 40 mph. and is moving West-Northwest.
Tropical Storm Bertha
Forecast track
The track and intesity is still a rough forecast, if not a bit rougher. The weakness will still be there an I do believe it will turn more NW in time but the question is, will it recurve then or later?
I have made my first run on the storm and I tend to agree that the high pressure will builds north of the system after the weakness passes through. I've seen this with many past systems and believe with a half confidence that this will pan out. In fact, looking at the latest models like the HRMF, GFDL, and even the most northern one of them all, the GFS, has a more westward path before recurving. The 12z GFS recurves the storm after 200 hours a little bit east of Bermuda. I have yet to see the rest of the models but I hear interesting things have changed since the last run. The first run shows Bertha recurving and posing a threat to Bermuda. THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OF MINE YET.
Tropical Storm Bertha forecast, 1st run!
Strength of Bertha after weakness passes
There is a good chance that TS Bertha will strengthen further after crossing the cool waters of the Atlantic. Onces it reaches warm waters north of the Islands, and as it moves south of the high as I predict, shear will lessen and it might become a category 1-2 Hurricane (possibly stronger). So it's all a wait and see till Bertha nears that area a bit further more. the GFS has been showing hurricane strength is it (so calls) stalls in the middle of the ocean which is possible but not likely in my books.
USA threat?
I can't say the USA will be threatened, but we shouldn't let our guard down. Especially if the trough that could recurve Bertha is weaker then what the GFS shows. A track more like Isabel (2003) would be favored, or even a Gloria (1985) track would not be out of the realm. However, it's a 10% out of 100% that it actually threatens the East Coast. Though it would NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE. We just need a few days to track and watch it, see how the high acts and if the trough that the GFS is predicting to recurve it can be strong enough. I will update later on tonight or tommorrow depending on how Bertha is.. That should cover it for now, if you have any questions or comments, send me a message! Have a great day!
- Allan C. Reed Jr.
Tropical Storm Bertha
Forecast track
The track and intesity is still a rough forecast, if not a bit rougher. The weakness will still be there an I do believe it will turn more NW in time but the question is, will it recurve then or later?
I have made my first run on the storm and I tend to agree that the high pressure will builds north of the system after the weakness passes through. I've seen this with many past systems and believe with a half confidence that this will pan out. In fact, looking at the latest models like the HRMF, GFDL, and even the most northern one of them all, the GFS, has a more westward path before recurving. The 12z GFS recurves the storm after 200 hours a little bit east of Bermuda. I have yet to see the rest of the models but I hear interesting things have changed since the last run. The first run shows Bertha recurving and posing a threat to Bermuda. THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST OF MINE YET.
Tropical Storm Bertha forecast, 1st run!
Strength of Bertha after weakness passes
There is a good chance that TS Bertha will strengthen further after crossing the cool waters of the Atlantic. Onces it reaches warm waters north of the Islands, and as it moves south of the high as I predict, shear will lessen and it might become a category 1-2 Hurricane (possibly stronger). So it's all a wait and see till Bertha nears that area a bit further more. the GFS has been showing hurricane strength is it (so calls) stalls in the middle of the ocean which is possible but not likely in my books.
USA threat?
I can't say the USA will be threatened, but we shouldn't let our guard down. Especially if the trough that could recurve Bertha is weaker then what the GFS shows. A track more like Isabel (2003) would be favored, or even a Gloria (1985) track would not be out of the realm. However, it's a 10% out of 100% that it actually threatens the East Coast. Though it would NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE. We just need a few days to track and watch it, see how the high acts and if the trough that the GFS is predicting to recurve it can be strong enough. I will update later on tonight or tommorrow depending on how Bertha is.. That should cover it for now, if you have any questions or comments, send me a message! Have a great day!
- Allan C. Reed Jr.