Freight Rates Tumbling as 35 Miles of Ships Passes Ore Demand
At a time when analysts anticipate record profits for the biggest mining companies and a third year of gains in commodity prices, shipping lines carrying raw materials are set for the lowest freight rates since 2002.
Leasing costs for capesizes, 1,000-foot-long ships hauling iron ore and coal, will drop 34 percent to average $22,000 a day this year, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of eight fund managers and analysts. The last time that happened, China’s economy, the biggest consumer of the minerals used in steel and power, was 75 percent smaller and the benchmark Standard & Poor’s GSCI commodity index 67 percent lower.
While Clarkson Plc, the world’s biggest shipbroker, expects seaborne trade in the two cargoes to exceed 2 billion metric tons for the first time this year, the 7 percent increase won’t be enough to eliminate a glut. About 200 capesizes, spanning some 35 miles end-to-end, will leave shipyards this year, expanding the fleet by 18 percent, the Bloomberg survey showed.
“The market was able to take a punch in the face in the form of 200 capesizes and loads of smaller vessels last year but I doubt it will manage another punch without having to hit the deck,” said Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an analyst at Arctic Securities ASA in Oslo who correctly forecast in July that rental costs would more than triple by the fourth quarter.
Rates averaged $34,913 a day in the final three months of 2010, 33 percent more than in the previous quarter. Tariffs are already plunging, dropping 7.7 percent today to $11,900, the lowest rate since Jan. 8, 2009, as ships leave yards in China, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange, which publishes assessments for more than 50 shipping routes.
Dry Ships
The Bloomberg Dry Ships Index of 12 shipping lines has yet to fully react, declining 0.3 percent by 1:52 p.m. in London today. Prices in the shipping market are more volatile than stocks and bonds, with rates moving 10 percent or more in 32 weeks last year.
While about 90 percent of global trade moves by sea, according to the Round Table of International Shipping Associations, the slump in rates is being caused by a vessel surplus not a contracting world economy.
Global seaborne iron-ore shipments will increase 7.5 percent to a record 1.04 billion tons this year and coal shipments 6.7 percent to an all-time high of 978 million tons, London-based Clarkson forecasts. China’s gross domestic product will expand 9 percent, three times the speed of the U.S., according to the median of as many as 68 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Global Recession
The surplus was caused by orders placed in 2007 and 2008, when daily income averaged about $111,000. Rates reached a record $233,988 in June 2008 before plunging 99 percent over the next six months to $2,316 as economies entered the first global recession since World War II. In 2009, tariffs more than quadrupled as growth rebounded.
Even at an average of $22,000, ship owners should be able to make money, with average daily expenses last year of about $15,000 for costs including crew and depreciation, Clarkson estimates. While the figure doesn’t include payments on loans, interest rates for many companies have dropped since the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to near zero in December 2008 and kept it there since.
Profit growth isn’t keeping up with the wider economy, with six of the 12 shipping lines in the Bloomberg Dry Ships Index expected to report lower earnings this year, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg, January 10th, 2011
Более подробно здесь: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-10/freight-rates-poised-to-tumble-as-35-mile-line-of-ships-passes-coal-demand.html
Мой комментарий: подвергаю жестокой критике пассаж (предпоследний абзац) о том, что со средней ставкой в 22,000 долларов судовладельцы всё ещё смогут "зарабатывать", поскольку их средние ежедневные расходы (running costs) находятся в регионе 15,000 долларов по результатам прошлого года. Да, здесь же есть отступление, что эта цифра (15,000 долларов) не включает в себя выплаты по залогу (кредит), но именно в этой невинной оговорке и кроется вся суть - выплаты по залогу могут варьироваться в регионе от 30,000 долларов до 50,000 долларов в сутки (!!!) - из каких денег прикажете выплачивать эти обязательные платежи ???
Статья - незачёт, но некоторые статистические данные можно принять к сведению.
Завтра продолжу публикации на эту же тему, но уже из другого аналитического источника.
Краткое резюме: текущий катастрофический обвал рынка (достигли уровня 2002-го года - поздравляю) связан скорее со значительным переизбытком предложения тоннажа на рынке, нежели с сокращением объёмов глобальной торговли.