Прогноз по глобальному урожаю зерна 2010 от FAO
Возьмём на заметку - всегда интересно возвращаться к прогнозам по истечению некоторого времени
(хотя, учитывая ту лёгкость, с которой FAO менят свои же собственные прогнозы, всё относительно):
FAO cuts global wheat output forecast, says supply still adequate
The Food and Agriculture Organization on Wednesday cut its 2010 global wheat production forecast to 651 million metric tons, but said it considers supplies of the critical food source to be adequate. The 3.7% cut, from 676 million tons previously, is due to the impact of unfavorable weather events on crops in recent weeks, the FAO said. Noting production problems in some leading exporting countries and the consequent rise in international wheat prices, the FAO said there's been concern about a repeat of the food crisis of 2007-08, which sparked riots in many countries around the world. But the FAO said the world wheat market remains far more balanced than at the time of the crisis, and that fears of a new global food crisis are not justified at this point. "After two consecutive years of record crops, world inventories have been replenished sufficiently to cover the current anticipated production shortfall." Even more importantly, stocks held by the traditional wheat exporters, the main buffer against unexpected events, remain ample, the FAO added. The trimmed forecast comes as Russia, the world's fifth largest exporter of wheat, trimmed its estimate for the size of its 2010 crop, as the worst drought to hit the country in 130 years caused wildfires to ravage the region. Adverse weather conditions in wheat-producing nations like Australia and Canada have also led to cuts in harvest forecasts. The FAO said it will continue to monitor the situation closely. "The latest downgrading of world wheat production forecast for 2010 points to a tighter supply situation and increases the likelihood of higher wheat prices compared with the previous season. However, fears of a global food crisis are unwarranted at this stage," the FAO said. "On the other hand, should the drought in the Russian Federation continue, it could pose problems for winter plantings in that country with potentially serious implications for world wheat supplies in 2011-12," it added.