New Market Research Report: Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2011
2011-11-08 07:27:22 - Fast Market Research recommends "Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
see a slowdown in the throughput recovery in 2011. So far in 2010 we have seen total tonnage throughput at the country's ports continue to drop, due in part to the continued muted demand from Ukraine's export partners in Europe, with one-quarter of the country's exports bound for the bloc. Containers have, however, started their recovery, with BMI forecasting growth at the port of Odessa and Illichivsk of 32.96% and 33.36% respectively in 2010. We project this to moderate to a y-o-y increase of 7.77% and 8.98% respectively in 2011. This projected slowing in growth will mean it will take longer for the ports to recover to their predownturn throughput levels. In terms of total throughput, we believe that the two years of declining
volumes in 2009 and 2010 will mean neither ports will fully recover in the mid term.
On the container side, we believe that the projected growth in 2010 along with stronger growth post-2011, will enable the port to lift volumes to 2008 levels by 2015. Headline Industry Data * 2011 port of Odessa tonnage throughput forecast to rise 1.92%, following projected decline of - 19% in 2010. * 2011 port of Odessa container throughput forecast to rise 8% following projected growth of 32.96% in 2010. * 2011 total trade growth forecast at 11.44%. Key Industry Trends Odessa Vies To Take Constantza's Crown - HHLA aims to invest in the port of Odessa's box sector with the aim of developing the facility's potential as a transhipment hub. While we note that the port is well placed to be a hub, the role is currently taken by the Romanian port of Constantza, currently operated by DP World, which will not give up its coveted position without a fight. Seeking Private Investors - In order for Ukraine's ports to further develop, the government is seeking private investors. BMI notes that the uptick in volumes, coupled with the latest ruling in the UTC vs the Port of Illichivsk, which has come down on the side of the investor, could see more investors getting involved in the sector. Risks to Outlook The economic outlook, with growth forecast to slow in 2011, holds the largest risk to the country's maritime recovery. Ukraine is set to continue seeking private investors for its port sector in order to provide the funding needed to expand. BMI believes that the resolving of the UTC vs the Port of Illichivsk dispute will lead to greater interest in this sector. HHLA, the port operator at Odessa already has an expansion plan in place which offers upside risk to our mid term forecasts, with further growth to be expected if the facility manages to push forward with its goal to be a transhipment hub.
About Business Monitor International
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/271012_ukraine_shipping_report_q4_2011.aspx
see a slowdown in the throughput recovery in 2011. So far in 2010 we have seen total tonnage throughput at the country's ports continue to drop, due in part to the continued muted demand from Ukraine's export partners in Europe, with one-quarter of the country's exports bound for the bloc. Containers have, however, started their recovery, with BMI forecasting growth at the port of Odessa and Illichivsk of 32.96% and 33.36% respectively in 2010. We project this to moderate to a y-o-y increase of 7.77% and 8.98% respectively in 2011. This projected slowing in growth will mean it will take longer for the ports to recover to their predownturn throughput levels. In terms of total throughput, we believe that the two years of declining
volumes in 2009 and 2010 will mean neither ports will fully recover in the mid term.
On the container side, we believe that the projected growth in 2010 along with stronger growth post-2011, will enable the port to lift volumes to 2008 levels by 2015. Headline Industry Data * 2011 port of Odessa tonnage throughput forecast to rise 1.92%, following projected decline of - 19% in 2010. * 2011 port of Odessa container throughput forecast to rise 8% following projected growth of 32.96% in 2010. * 2011 total trade growth forecast at 11.44%. Key Industry Trends Odessa Vies To Take Constantza's Crown - HHLA aims to invest in the port of Odessa's box sector with the aim of developing the facility's potential as a transhipment hub. While we note that the port is well placed to be a hub, the role is currently taken by the Romanian port of Constantza, currently operated by DP World, which will not give up its coveted position without a fight. Seeking Private Investors - In order for Ukraine's ports to further develop, the government is seeking private investors. BMI notes that the uptick in volumes, coupled with the latest ruling in the UTC vs the Port of Illichivsk, which has come down on the side of the investor, could see more investors getting involved in the sector. Risks to Outlook The economic outlook, with growth forecast to slow in 2011, holds the largest risk to the country's maritime recovery. Ukraine is set to continue seeking private investors for its port sector in order to provide the funding needed to expand. BMI believes that the resolving of the UTC vs the Port of Illichivsk dispute will lead to greater interest in this sector. HHLA, the port operator at Odessa already has an expansion plan in place which offers upside risk to our mid term forecasts, with further growth to be expected if the facility manages to push forward with its goal to be a transhipment hub.
About Business Monitor International
Full Report Details at
- www.fastmr.com/prod/271012_ukraine_shipping_report_q4_2011.aspx