Russia, America and Egypt: the trilogy dilemma returns!
It has been more than 30 years when the late president Sadat (my god bless his soul) announced that he will start improving Egypt's relationship with the west especially with America after he made the most courageous decision in the history of the Middle East by visiting Israel in 1977.
since then, Egypt became respected allover the world as a peace loving nation and started quite good and strong political, cultural and economical relationship with America an event that was impossible during Nasser's era.
After Sadat's assassination in 1981, Mubarak became the president, as a president, Mubarak was always braised for his wisdom and neutral external politics, in long 27 years, Mubarak stopped the possibility of war in the Middle East several times, warned against gulf war 10 years before its occurrence!! and contributed obviously to the negotiations of peace between Israel and the palestinians.
For his wisdom and quiet politics, The Egyptian president was always a good friend of the west and his relationship with America started to grow more and more until Egypt became one of America's allies in the region.
On the other hand, Russian allies were decreasing with time in the Middle East starting with the major strike Sadat made when he completely ignored USSR recommendations in negotiations with Israel to the extent that USSR was no longer of any part in the whole process, a decision that showed that Sadat understood that the whole game of the region is in America's hands especially after the USSR's shameful behavior during 1973 by decreasing military aids to Egypt in the same time when Israel was receiving the largest military aid in history from USA.
the same story repeated itself with the following president. Mubarak always remembered the lesson of the 1973 war and always favored America. When it came to choosing sides, Mubarak said that he is in the middle. However, his actions said that he always was in America's side especially that USSR decayed and Russia became weaker than ever!
Yet the side dilemma starts to reappear again in the current time especially after the major events that happened during Bush's government.
In February, 2nd 2005 Bush called both Egypt and Saudia Arabia to make democratic changes in a speech he gave in the congress he said,"Egypt, the great Nation who was the first to choose peace with Israel should start to make democratic changes"
soon after this speech interest in democracy in the Arab world was increasing vigorously both internally and externally, especially with the new project Bush came up with and called it (The Big Middle East) that was rejected immediately by both Egyptian and Saudi leaders just one night after Bush declared his plans.
Day after another, Mubarak's reputation as a famous peace loving leader in the west was changing with more interest directed to democracy issues in Egypt. Mubarak was subjected to major waves of criticism in American media especially newspapers and news channels.
the wave of criticism was getting stronger especially during Mubarak's last visit to America in April 2005 when major criticism was fired at the president of Egypt in America, since this exact point things were never like they used to be
Mubarak's annual visit to America was canceled for one reason or another every year, saying the visit will be postponed or the president is busy..... etc) yet he never visited America again. it is now 3 years since Mubarak's last visit to America.
even when he sent some one like the Prime minister, he would get millions of questions about democracy issues, like last year when Nazif (the Egyptian Prime minister) was bugged by dozens of questions about democracy.
The gab got larger when US congress started to discuss diminishing Egypt's military aid last 2 years and after long discussion the hard decision was made by decreasing Egypt's aid to be 7 Million dollars less than Israel's.
For all insiders in Egypt's politics: this was the point of maximum disaccord between Egypt and America ever since they started their relationship during Sadat's government.
Mubarak, tried to look calm after the decision saying it won't affect the relationship, yet his reply came so rapid as he already expected such a decision after it was discussed for 2 years
since then Mubarak made a series of Historical visits to France and Russia. in 2 years Mubarak visited Russia twice, made too many agreements in new fields like establishing a Russian university in Cairo which will provide education about space exploration for the first time in Arab world also in energy field and especially military co operation
In no time Russia returned so rapidly to be a major ally of Egypt and an important player in the region especially after Iran crisis and the agreement with Syria that enabled Russia to have a base in the middle east for the first time in history.
Russia also started moving her armada to the Mediterranean and red seas to watch the situation there or that's what their leaders say.
It seems that America bushed Mubarak too much by the military aids law last year and the decision is very stupid especially that they already know that weapons won't affect Egypt so much because the Egyptian army depends on multiple sources of weapons especially from Europe and Russia. they simply took the decision to threaten Mubarak that he is no longer gonna be the dear friend without taking in consideration that if Mubarak is no longer their best friend then he will simply be the best friend of another side.
last week witnessed a new historical visit of Mubarak to Russia after her new president Medividev was elected, during which both presidents signed an agreement by which Russia will start establishing a new nuclear reactor in Egypt for energy purposes yet its power is above 70 mega watt , such a power that enables Egypt to revise he attitude from nuclear banning agreement of the Middle east at any time.
Also last week witnessed an awful accident when 3 Egyptians were shot by American military ship passing through Suez channel, the ship is now stopped in the canal while its team is under interrogation, and although Bush called to express his sorrow for Mubarak, the situation isn't getting any calm here with newspapers covering the incident in the first page and public rage on all levels up to the People's Assembly (Egypt's congress) that asks for a complete investigation of the accident
2 events in one week one on purpose and the other made by incident show how deteriorated Egyptian American relationship became and how strong Russian Egyptian friendship is getting.
adding to the whole subject Egypt and Israel's deteriorating conversation bridges especially that Egypt won't forget the Israel Lobby who managed to diminish USA aid to Egypt and Israel accusing Egypt of passing weapons across borderline to Gaza, we get a full view of the current political scene and the trilogy dilemma.
it is so sad what Egypt and America relationship has came to. it isn't helping any one to have bad relationship between both sides
although it doesn't look good, Egypt and America will never get to Nasser's point after the whole co operation they had for almost thirty years yet the bad relationship will produce undesirable effects on the short and long term.
since then, Egypt became respected allover the world as a peace loving nation and started quite good and strong political, cultural and economical relationship with America an event that was impossible during Nasser's era.
After Sadat's assassination in 1981, Mubarak became the president, as a president, Mubarak was always braised for his wisdom and neutral external politics, in long 27 years, Mubarak stopped the possibility of war in the Middle East several times, warned against gulf war 10 years before its occurrence!! and contributed obviously to the negotiations of peace between Israel and the palestinians.
For his wisdom and quiet politics, The Egyptian president was always a good friend of the west and his relationship with America started to grow more and more until Egypt became one of America's allies in the region.
On the other hand, Russian allies were decreasing with time in the Middle East starting with the major strike Sadat made when he completely ignored USSR recommendations in negotiations with Israel to the extent that USSR was no longer of any part in the whole process, a decision that showed that Sadat understood that the whole game of the region is in America's hands especially after the USSR's shameful behavior during 1973 by decreasing military aids to Egypt in the same time when Israel was receiving the largest military aid in history from USA.
the same story repeated itself with the following president. Mubarak always remembered the lesson of the 1973 war and always favored America. When it came to choosing sides, Mubarak said that he is in the middle. However, his actions said that he always was in America's side especially that USSR decayed and Russia became weaker than ever!
Yet the side dilemma starts to reappear again in the current time especially after the major events that happened during Bush's government.
In February, 2nd 2005 Bush called both Egypt and Saudia Arabia to make democratic changes in a speech he gave in the congress he said,"Egypt, the great Nation who was the first to choose peace with Israel should start to make democratic changes"
soon after this speech interest in democracy in the Arab world was increasing vigorously both internally and externally, especially with the new project Bush came up with and called it (The Big Middle East) that was rejected immediately by both Egyptian and Saudi leaders just one night after Bush declared his plans.
Day after another, Mubarak's reputation as a famous peace loving leader in the west was changing with more interest directed to democracy issues in Egypt. Mubarak was subjected to major waves of criticism in American media especially newspapers and news channels.
the wave of criticism was getting stronger especially during Mubarak's last visit to America in April 2005 when major criticism was fired at the president of Egypt in America, since this exact point things were never like they used to be
Mubarak's annual visit to America was canceled for one reason or another every year, saying the visit will be postponed or the president is busy..... etc) yet he never visited America again. it is now 3 years since Mubarak's last visit to America.
even when he sent some one like the Prime minister, he would get millions of questions about democracy issues, like last year when Nazif (the Egyptian Prime minister) was bugged by dozens of questions about democracy.
The gab got larger when US congress started to discuss diminishing Egypt's military aid last 2 years and after long discussion the hard decision was made by decreasing Egypt's aid to be 7 Million dollars less than Israel's.
For all insiders in Egypt's politics: this was the point of maximum disaccord between Egypt and America ever since they started their relationship during Sadat's government.
Mubarak, tried to look calm after the decision saying it won't affect the relationship, yet his reply came so rapid as he already expected such a decision after it was discussed for 2 years
since then Mubarak made a series of Historical visits to France and Russia. in 2 years Mubarak visited Russia twice, made too many agreements in new fields like establishing a Russian university in Cairo which will provide education about space exploration for the first time in Arab world also in energy field and especially military co operation
In no time Russia returned so rapidly to be a major ally of Egypt and an important player in the region especially after Iran crisis and the agreement with Syria that enabled Russia to have a base in the middle east for the first time in history.
Russia also started moving her armada to the Mediterranean and red seas to watch the situation there or that's what their leaders say.
It seems that America bushed Mubarak too much by the military aids law last year and the decision is very stupid especially that they already know that weapons won't affect Egypt so much because the Egyptian army depends on multiple sources of weapons especially from Europe and Russia. they simply took the decision to threaten Mubarak that he is no longer gonna be the dear friend without taking in consideration that if Mubarak is no longer their best friend then he will simply be the best friend of another side.
last week witnessed a new historical visit of Mubarak to Russia after her new president Medividev was elected, during which both presidents signed an agreement by which Russia will start establishing a new nuclear reactor in Egypt for energy purposes yet its power is above 70 mega watt , such a power that enables Egypt to revise he attitude from nuclear banning agreement of the Middle east at any time.
Also last week witnessed an awful accident when 3 Egyptians were shot by American military ship passing through Suez channel, the ship is now stopped in the canal while its team is under interrogation, and although Bush called to express his sorrow for Mubarak, the situation isn't getting any calm here with newspapers covering the incident in the first page and public rage on all levels up to the People's Assembly (Egypt's congress) that asks for a complete investigation of the accident
2 events in one week one on purpose and the other made by incident show how deteriorated Egyptian American relationship became and how strong Russian Egyptian friendship is getting.
adding to the whole subject Egypt and Israel's deteriorating conversation bridges especially that Egypt won't forget the Israel Lobby who managed to diminish USA aid to Egypt and Israel accusing Egypt of passing weapons across borderline to Gaza, we get a full view of the current political scene and the trilogy dilemma.
it is so sad what Egypt and America relationship has came to. it isn't helping any one to have bad relationship between both sides
although it doesn't look good, Egypt and America will never get to Nasser's point after the whole co operation they had for almost thirty years yet the bad relationship will produce undesirable effects on the short and long term.