wrapping things up
под катом - мои окончательные и бесповоротные прогнозы по всем 24 номинациям и личные предпочтения по 23 из них. буду болеть за Любецки (который, надеюсь, выиграет), Соркина с Заилляном (которые выиграют вряд ли) и Брэда (который не выиграет ни за что) - и надеяться обновить позапрошлогодний all-time record (18/24)
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will win: The Artist (Could win: The Tree of Life)
If I had a ballot: 1. The Tree of Life (2. Midnight in Paris, 3. Hugo, 4. Moneyball, 5. The Artist, 6. The Help, 7. War Horse, 8. The Descendants, 9. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Demián Bichir for A Better Life
George Clooney for The Descendants
Jean Dujardin for The Artist
Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt for Moneyball
Will win: Jean Dujardin (Could win: George Clooney)
If I had a ballot: Brad Pitt
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis for The Help
Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn
Will win: Viola Davis (Could win: Meryl Streep)
If I had a ballot: Viola Davis
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill for Moneyball
Nick Nolte for Warrior
Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Will win: Christopher Plummer (Could win: Max von Sydow)
If I had a ballot: Christopher Plummer
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Bérénice Bejo for The Artist
Jessica Chastain for The Help
Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer for The Help
Will win: Octavia Spencer (Could win: Jessica Chastain)
If I had a ballot: Jessica Chastain
Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius (Could win: Martin Scorsese)
If I had a ballot: Terrence Malick
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Will win: The Artist (Could win: Midnight in Paris)
If I had a ballot: A Separation
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will win: The Descendants (Could win: Moneyball)
If I had a ballot: Moneyball
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Will win: Rango (Could win: Puss in Boots)
If I had a ballot: Rango
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Will win: A Separation (Could win: In Darkness)
If I had a ballot: A Separation
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will win: The Tree of Life (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: The Tree of Life
Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Will win: The Artist (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: Moneyball
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Will win: Hugo (Could win: The Artist)
If I had a ballot: Hugo
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Will win: Jane Eyre (Could win: The Artist)
If I had a ballot: Jane Eyre
Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
Will win: The Iron Lady (Could win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2)
If I had a ballot: The Iron Lady
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Will win: The Artist (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: Hugo
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
The Muppets ("Man or Muppet")
Rio ("Real in Rio")
Will win: The Muppets (Could win: Rio)
If I had a ballot: The Muppets
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Nominees:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will win: Hugo (Could win: War Horse)
If I had a ballot: Moneyball
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will win: War Horse (Could win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon)
If I had a ballot: Drive
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Will win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (Could win: Pina)
If I had a ballot: If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
The Barber of Birmingham
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (Could win: Saving Face)
If I had a ballot: ---
Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
Dimanche
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Could win: La Luna)
If I had a ballot: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Will win: The Shore (Could win: Tuba Atlantic)
If I had a ballot: The Shore
подробнее:
Целлулоид: 'Артист' и время менять имена
Road to the Oscars: final countdown, pt. 1
Road to the Oscars: final countdown, pt. 2
Road to the Oscars: final countdown, pt. 3
FINAL TALLIES
WILL WIN:
6 - The Artist
2 - The Help
2 - Hugo
1 - Beginners
1 - The Descendants
1 - The Tree of Life
1 - Jane Eyre
1 - The Iron lady
1 - A Separation
1 - Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
1 - Rango
1 - The Muppets
1 - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
1 - War Horse
IF I HAD A BALLOT:
4 - Moneyball
3 - The Tree of Life
2 - The Help
2 - A Separation
2 - Hugo
1 - Beginners
1 - Jane Eyre
1 - The Iron Lady
1 - If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
1 - Rango
1 - The Muppets
1 - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
1 - Drive
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will win: The Artist (Could win: The Tree of Life)
If I had a ballot: 1. The Tree of Life (2. Midnight in Paris, 3. Hugo, 4. Moneyball, 5. The Artist, 6. The Help, 7. War Horse, 8. The Descendants, 9. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Demián Bichir for A Better Life
George Clooney for The Descendants
Jean Dujardin for The Artist
Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt for Moneyball
Will win: Jean Dujardin (Could win: George Clooney)
If I had a ballot: Brad Pitt
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis for The Help
Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn
Will win: Viola Davis (Could win: Meryl Streep)
If I had a ballot: Viola Davis
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill for Moneyball
Nick Nolte for Warrior
Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Will win: Christopher Plummer (Could win: Max von Sydow)
If I had a ballot: Christopher Plummer
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Bérénice Bejo for The Artist
Jessica Chastain for The Help
Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer for The Help
Will win: Octavia Spencer (Could win: Jessica Chastain)
If I had a ballot: Jessica Chastain
Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius (Could win: Martin Scorsese)
If I had a ballot: Terrence Malick
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Will win: The Artist (Could win: Midnight in Paris)
If I had a ballot: A Separation
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
The Descendants
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Will win: The Descendants (Could win: Moneyball)
If I had a ballot: Moneyball
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
Will win: Rango (Could win: Puss in Boots)
If I had a ballot: Rango
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)
Will win: A Separation (Could win: In Darkness)
If I had a ballot: A Separation
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will win: The Tree of Life (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: The Tree of Life
Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Will win: The Artist (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: Moneyball
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Will win: Hugo (Could win: The Artist)
If I had a ballot: Hugo
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.
Will win: Jane Eyre (Could win: The Artist)
If I had a ballot: Jane Eyre
Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
The Iron Lady
Will win: The Iron Lady (Could win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2)
If I had a ballot: The Iron Lady
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
Will win: The Artist (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: Hugo
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
The Muppets ("Man or Muppet")
Rio ("Real in Rio")
Will win: The Muppets (Could win: Rio)
If I had a ballot: The Muppets
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Nominees:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will win: Hugo (Could win: War Horse)
If I had a ballot: Moneyball
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Will win: War Horse (Could win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon)
If I had a ballot: Drive
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Could win: Hugo)
If I had a ballot: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Will win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (Could win: Pina)
If I had a ballot: If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
The Barber of Birmingham
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom (Could win: Saving Face)
If I had a ballot: ---
Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
Dimanche
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life
Will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (Could win: La Luna)
If I had a ballot: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic
Will win: The Shore (Could win: Tuba Atlantic)
If I had a ballot: The Shore
подробнее:
Целлулоид: 'Артист' и время менять имена
Road to the Oscars: final countdown, pt. 1
Road to the Oscars: final countdown, pt. 2
Road to the Oscars: final countdown, pt. 3
FINAL TALLIES
WILL WIN:
6 - The Artist
2 - The Help
2 - Hugo
1 - Beginners
1 - The Descendants
1 - The Tree of Life
1 - Jane Eyre
1 - The Iron lady
1 - A Separation
1 - Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
1 - Rango
1 - The Muppets
1 - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
1 - War Horse
IF I HAD A BALLOT:
4 - Moneyball
3 - The Tree of Life
2 - The Help
2 - A Separation
2 - Hugo
1 - Beginners
1 - Jane Eyre
1 - The Iron Lady
1 - If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
1 - Rango
1 - The Muppets
1 - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
1 - Drive