octofinal part 1
Ten out of sixteen is terrible for knockout-stage picks; it's barely better than chance, and actually worse than chance when you figure that at least eight of those should be gimmies. Let's just call "wearyingly few surprises" a clever stroke of superstitious reverse-psychology and leave it at that. This tournament has been a joy so far, if for no other reason than that Italy are in ruins. Ghana made it out of their group at the expense of Serbia's thugs; Korea and Japan entertained; Chile were fantastic. There's a new and exciting reason to root for Germany: they're the most ethnically diverse team at this tournament, with wonderful portents for German society as a whole going forward. Freaking New Zealand were unbeaten. And, best of all, USA football is all gwowed up. So let's post more picks to laugh at later.
URU 3:2 KOR It was awesome to see the Reds and their positive approach go through, and they should account for themselves well against a still-ascendant Uruguay.
USA 1:1 GHA aet (USA 4:3 on penalties) Essentially a toss-up, but not thanks to Nate Silver's silly "home-continent advantage" assumptions. (One, Africa's frickin' huge and is otherwise unlike Europe in all kinds of ways that affect how many of a country's fans get to the grounds for their country's match (population density, transport infrastructure, income, etc.); two, yeah they're playing in Africa, but at the coldest end of it right around winter solstice; three, the USA has likely already faced more hostile crowds in its home games, not even to mention its road CONCACAF qualifiers.) Rather, it's a toss-up because USA are probably oversold -- they were just barely good enough to win what turned out to be a soft Group C, and still have questions about both their back four and their finishing. USA's advantages have been their fitness and their psychological resilience, and both should see them through this match, but then it gets harder.
ARG 2:1 MEX Diego and his mental-ward-Saddam beard have been the funnest thing to watch, and unlike in CONMEBOL qualifying it's starting to look like he actually knows what the hell he's doing with his squad, and that they could actually win this whole tournament. Unfortunate for maybe the best Mexico team I've seen that they have to run into them this early.
GER 3:1 ENG Not sold on England on the basis of one good group-stage performance. You or I could have told Capello that DeFoe > Heskey, and at least he's finally recognized that, but all the buoyant optimism you're now hearing from the English press is just them being stuck in their media bubble again. Özil's the schizzeiss, and I don't see Ledley King staying ambulatory for ninety minutes and not leaving a hole in the back that Jamie Carragher could never fill. (Plus, even if England should make it through, Argentina would hide them. Hide in the sense of "skin", like, removing their hides, rather than put them somewhere where they can't be found. Though they'd probably do that, too.)
URU 3:2 KOR It was awesome to see the Reds and their positive approach go through, and they should account for themselves well against a still-ascendant Uruguay.
USA 1:1 GHA aet (USA 4:3 on penalties) Essentially a toss-up, but not thanks to Nate Silver's silly "home-continent advantage" assumptions. (One, Africa's frickin' huge and is otherwise unlike Europe in all kinds of ways that affect how many of a country's fans get to the grounds for their country's match (population density, transport infrastructure, income, etc.); two, yeah they're playing in Africa, but at the coldest end of it right around winter solstice; three, the USA has likely already faced more hostile crowds in its home games, not even to mention its road CONCACAF qualifiers.) Rather, it's a toss-up because USA are probably oversold -- they were just barely good enough to win what turned out to be a soft Group C, and still have questions about both their back four and their finishing. USA's advantages have been their fitness and their psychological resilience, and both should see them through this match, but then it gets harder.
ARG 2:1 MEX Diego and his mental-ward-Saddam beard have been the funnest thing to watch, and unlike in CONMEBOL qualifying it's starting to look like he actually knows what the hell he's doing with his squad, and that they could actually win this whole tournament. Unfortunate for maybe the best Mexico team I've seen that they have to run into them this early.
GER 3:1 ENG Not sold on England on the basis of one good group-stage performance. You or I could have told Capello that DeFoe > Heskey, and at least he's finally recognized that, but all the buoyant optimism you're now hearing from the English press is just them being stuck in their media bubble again. Özil's the schizzeiss, and I don't see Ledley King staying ambulatory for ninety minutes and not leaving a hole in the back that Jamie Carragher could never fill. (Plus, even if England should make it through, Argentina would hide them. Hide in the sense of "skin", like, removing their hides, rather than put them somewhere where they can't be found. Though they'd probably do that, too.)