The Long Dark Tea-time of the Soul
(Subject is the title of a book by Douglas Adams.)
I hereby raise my bet to 150% short. I hope this turns out to have been a good idea. Today’s closing price is higher than I would have preferred, but at least we are still within the lime-green channel. If we hit that ole’ dashed orange line again (or even exceed the lime channel significantly), this trade is toast and I will need to cancel it at a loss. Right now I’m sitting on an unrealized imaginary gain of +1.6%, hoping for more.
On Aug 29 I wrote: “the red line came very close on Aug 25, … so I think I’ll skip the contrarian trade on the next downswing.” But then on Sep 07 I wrote, “Meanwhile, the red line has since fallen away…, so why not trade long here?” This utterance is my chief contender for “stupidest thing said all year” and a solid reason for you to always remember that you are watching 🐔 🪛 ⚾ (The Crank Channel). A quick scan through recent years (which I could have done at any time) shows that long trades after falling red lines do not do well. This makes sense: a falling red line means there have been no new highs in a month, so maybe not a good time for a bullish bet? If I add a new rule “needs to have been a new high within the last 22 days before beginning a long trade” then the entire -14.6% loser trade would have been skipped. What an expensive lesson!
Lawyers: nothing.