The tea leaves are favorable to Joe Biden's candidacy
I remember, back in the Olden Days of early 2016, how the Democrats used to tell everyone that the stock market would decide the winner of the election. If it rises during Sept. and Oct. of an election year then the incumbent party will retain the presidency (except in Jimmy Carter's case, because John Anderson siphoned off some of his votes), but if the stock market falls during those two months then control of the White House will flip (as has happened in all six cases since 1928). And then the market fell during Sept. and Oct. of 2016 and so (as should have been expected) Hillary Clinton then lost.
How about this year? Here is an article from September 2020 that continues to make this same point about how easy it is to predict American elections. So, let's check the charts:
In 2016, the market made a high at the beginning of Sept. and then spent the next two months wallowing in a trough, followed by a zoom upward beginning on Election Day - couldn't be more obvious, even though at the time "everyone" was saying that Clinton's win was assured because Wall St. totally didn't matter anymore.
In 2020, the market made a high at the beginning of Sept. and has spent the two months since then wallowing in a trough. Will there be a zoom upwards on Election Day, because "everyone" is saying that Biden's win is assured? Or do only Republican winners get that?
Because it doesn't matter what I think, I have decided to predict that the S&P 500 basket of largest American stocks (which is basically "the stock market") will make a low of around $3,209.45, sometime between this Friday and next Tuesday, and that The Fates have not yet decided whether the market will exceed its Sept. 02 high later this year, or whether we will have to wait for next year's vaccine. I will also go out on a limb here and say that we are TOTALLY DEFINITELY going to get a vaccine next year - but we don't know yet how good it will be.