Бинарная дипломатия

[tijd]

Выступая в Госдепе в феврале 2021, Байден говорил о возврате Америки и американской дипломатии, в частности для борьбы с мировым авторитаризмом.

“And so is the message I want the world to hear today: America is back. America is back. Diplomacy is back at the center of our foreign policy. As I said in my inaugural address, we will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again, not to meet yesterday’s challenges, but today’s and tomorrow’s. American leadership must meet this new moment of advancing authoritarianism, including the growing ambitions of China to rival the United States and the determination of Russia to damage and disrupt our democracy.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/04/remarks-by-president-biden-on-americas-place-in-the-world/

Не расходясь со словами, президентский проект государственного бюджета включает увеличение финансирования Госдепа.

Mr. Biden has stressed the value of restoring American diplomacy and alliances, and his budget requests an increase of $6.3 billion for the State Department and international programs, more than 11 percent above current levels - and almost 50 percent more than the last budget proposed by Mr. Trump, who repeatedly targeted the State Department for cuts.
Prioritizing the threat of the coronavirus, the overall $63.6 billion request includes $1 billion in foreign aid to combat the spread of Covid-19, promote global health security programs and increase research to detect and stop future viral outbreaks.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/us/politics/trillion-budget-plan-joe-biden.html

Congratulations, Ambassador Nuland! We’re glad to have you on board! https://t.co/hmkX5Q622o pic.twitter.com/wKZbgO5yRv
- Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) May 3, 2021

На центральные роли вернулись ветераны Госдепа из администрации Обамы. Небезызвестная Виктория Нуланд была единогласно утверждена Сенатом на должность Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, третий по рангу пост в Госдепе. Занимавшая этот пост при Обама Вэнди Шерман также пошла на повышение и заняла второй по рангу пост заместителя госсекретаря. Свою первую поездку на новой должности Нуланд совершила в знакомый ей город Киев, сопровождая госсекретаря Блинкена.

В написанной год назад развернутой статье о тактике отношений с Россией Нуланд предлагает не загонять Путина в угол, что позволяет ему играть в "осажденную крепость", а пытаться вытащить его на переговоры, что будет вбивать клин между ним и его народом.

"Some-myself included-have been overly optimistic in expecting that with more integration with the free world, Russia would become a better and more democratic partner. Others have been overly fatalistic, citing Russia’s unique set of interests, its geography, or its history to justify its aggression and violations of international law. Others still have been ahistorical in their outlook, asserting that if NATO just reversed its enlargement and offered Russia hegemony over Ukraine and a larger sphere of influence, Putin’s appetite would be sated. None of these lenses has given U.S. policymakers better vision.
The coming U.S. presidential election offers the United States a chance to get off defense, restore the strength and confidence of the democratic world, and close the holes in its security after years of drift and division. Once that resolve is firmly on display, the United States can seize the moment of renewal at home and stagnation in Russia to stretch out a hand again. Putin may not want or be able to take it. But the Russian people should know that Washington and its allies are giving him and Russia a choice."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2020-06-09/pinning-down-putin

Похоже, что Байдену такой подход импонирует, он применяет его ныне с республиканскими сенаторами и испробует с Путиным во время июньской встречи. Закончится либо небывалым успехом, либо наступанием на привычные грабли.



Если Нуланд - практик, то ее муж Роберт Каган - теоретик и идеолог. Каган происходит из неоконов. Он был одним из основателей и руководителей организации Project for the New American Century, которая вошла в историю открытым письмом Биллу Клинтону в январе 1998 с призывом к военному вторжению в Ирак для отстранения Саддама Хусейна от власти.

"The only acceptable strategy is one that eliminates the possibility that Iraq will be able to use or threaten to use weapons of mass destruction. In the near term, this means a willingness to undertake military action as diplomacy is clearly failing. In the long term, it means removing Saddam Hussein and his regime from power. That now needs to become the aim of American foreign policy."
https://web.archive.org/web/20040102140750/http://www.newamericancentury.org/iraqclintonletter.htm

Многие из подписавших письмо оказались в итоге на руководящих должностях в администрации Буша и осуществили намеченное.



Как представитель более молодого поколения, Каган не считал себя консерватором и расходился во взглядах с неоконами старшего поколения. С появлением Трампа он забил тревогу и вышел из республиканской партии.

В феврале 2016 Каган провидчески писал: "Let’s be clear: Trump is no fluke. Nor is he hijacking the Republican Party or the conservative movement, if there is such a thing. He is, rather, the party’s creation, its Frankenstein’s monster, brought to life by the party, fed by the party and now made strong enough to destroy its maker."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-the-gops-frankenstein-monster-now-hes-strong-enough-to-destroy-the-party/2016/02/25/3e443f28-dbc1-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html

Частично благодаря Трампу идеология Кагана кристаллизовалась. Для Рейгана привлекательность неоконов была в частности в том, что они оправдывали поддержку диктаторских режимов, если только эти режимы выступали союзниками в борьбе с распространением коммунизма. Ныне Каган считает такой подход ошибочным. Существуют два полюса - либеральная демократия с защитой прав человека, и диктатура, которая эти права отнимает, и если Америка не будет поддерживать либеральные демократии в других странах, то силы противников либерализма заполнят образовавшийся вакуум.

Из программной статьи 2019 года:

By far, the most significant distinction today is a binary one: Nations are either liberal, meaning that there are permanent institutions and unchanging norms that protect the “unalienable” rights of individuals against all who would infringe on those rights, whether the state or the majority; or they are not liberal, in which case there is nothing built into the system and respected by the government and the governed alike that prevents the state or the majority from violating or taking away individuals’ rights whenever they choose, in ways both minor and severe.
The distinction may not have been as straightforward during the 18th and 19th centuries, when Britain and France had liberal institutions that genuinely challenged and even curtailed the power of absolute monarchies. But in today’s world, there can be no liberalism without democracy and no democracy without liberalism. Hungary’s Orban may speak of “illiberal” democracy, but he has systematically weakened the institutions - a free press, an independent judiciary, an open and competitive political system - on which democracy depends.
We are too easily fooled by the half-measures of autocrats and would-be autocrats. A ruler or a dominant majority may leave individuals alone for periods of time, or they may limit their rights only in small ways, or only on particular issues. But if they are not bound to protect individuals in their rights to life, liberty and property - and in this vital respect, to treat all people as equals under the law - then the rights they permit are merely conditional.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2019/03/14/feature/the-strongmen-strike-back/

В том же году Каган написал совместную статью с нынешним госсекретарем Блинкеном с похожими идеями, включая создание новых международных союзов для поддержки демократий разных стран.

"Today, the rise of an alternative, techno-authoritarian model of governance is the principal threat to the community of democracies. Autocrats, fearing democracy’s strength and appeal, have weaponized the tools of social control they use at home to sow division within and among democracies.
To rally and protect ourselves, we must adapt. Our alliances are out of date in one key respect: The United States has European allies and Asian allies, but no institution links the Asian and European democracies. As China’s Belt and Road initiative draws Asia, Europe and the Middle East closer together in ways that serve Beijing’s interests, the democracies also need a global perspective - and new institutions to forge a common strategic, economic and political vision."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-first-is-only-making-the-world-worse-heres-a-better-approach/2019/01/01/1272367c-079f-11e9-88e3-989a3e456820_story.html



Для Байдена идеология защиты демократии политически выигрышна потому, что она объединяет внутреннюю и внешнюю политику - трамписты предстают врагами демократии и уподобляются в этом заграничным диктаторам.

“Our troops have fought this battle on fields around the world, but it is also the battle of our time. And the mission falls to each of us, each and every day. Democracy itself is in peril, here at home and around the world.
What we do now - what we do now, how we honor the memory of the fallen, will determine whether or not democracy will long endure. We all take it for granted. We think we learned in school. You have to - every generation has to fight for it.
But, look, it’s the biggest question: Whether a system that prizes the individual, that bends towards liberty, that gives everybody a chance at prosperity - whether that system can and will prevail against powerful forces that wish it harm.
All that we do in our common life as a nation is part of that struggle. The struggle for democracy is taking place around the world - democracy and autocracy. The struggle for decency and dignity - just simple decency. The struggle for posterity - prosperity and progress. And, yes, the struggle for the soul of America itself.
Folks, you all know it: Democracy thrives when the infrastructure of democracy is strong; when people have the right to vote freely and fairly and conveniently; when a free and independent press pursues the truth, founded on facts, not propaganda; when the rule of law applies equally and fairly to every citizen, regardless of where they come from or what they look like. <...>
To state the obvious: Our democracy is imperfect. It always has been. But Americans of all backgrounds, races, creeds, gender identities, sexual orientations, have long spilled their blood to defend our democracy. The diversity of our country and of our armed services is and always has been an incredible strength.
And generation after generation of American heroes have signed up to be part of the fight because they understand the truth that lives in every American heart: that liberation, opportunity, justice are far more likely to come to pass in a democracy than an autocracy.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/05/31/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-153rd-national-memorial-day-observance/



В статье 2019 года Каган обращал внимание на то, как Биби Нетаньяху сделал ставку на силы противников либерализма.

Since about the middle of 2015, the Israeli government has embraced Hungary’s avowedly “illiberal” prime minister, Viktor Orban; worked to forge close ties with Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, despite its limitations on civil liberties and legislation outlawing public discussion of Poland’s role in the Holocaust; warmly embraced Brazil’s right-wing nationalist leader, Jair Bolsonaro; provided a state visit for President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, who once likened himself to Adolf Hitler; worked consistently to woo Russian President Vladimir Putin; offered a 25-year contract to a Chinese state-owned firm to manage the port of Haifa, which has often hosted the U.S. 6th Fleet; and provided consistently strong support for the military dictatorship in Egypt, including lobbying the U.S. Congress on its behalf, as well as supporting the authoritarian sheikhdoms of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu, who faces a difficult reelection vote on Tuesday, insists he is only leading Israel out of international isolation, but the common denominator among all these new partners has been an avowed hostility toward liberalism and the liberal world order, and the prime minister himself has become something of a “central figure in the global non-liberal camp,” as Israeli commentators have noted. Yoram Hazony, a conservative Israeli thinker and onetime aide to Netanyahu, has frankly proclaimed Israel’s solidarity with those he calls the “holdouts against universal liberalism” in Hungary, Poland, France, Italy, Britain and elsewhere. All face a struggle against what he calls the U.S.-led “liberal empire.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/12/liberal-world-order-helped-israel-flourish-now-state-is-pushing-back/

Ныне Нетаньяху отвалился от власти вслед за Трампом, сигнализируя смену эпохи.

"The overthrowing of Netanyahu will cause a collapse of the global right-wing - from the United States to The Hague," read the tweet shared by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's official Twitter account.
The statement, made by Yamina MK Amichai Chikli, who has stated that he will not be joining the coalition led by Yamina leader Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, was part of a larger article which was retweeted by Netanyahu on Friday afternoon.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/pm-netanyahu-shares-article-calling-him-an-icon-of-the-global-right-670134

One thing I’ve found all over the world is that authoritarianism is symbiotic with corruption. Going after the corruption that is the lifeblood of autocracy is essential to safeguarding democracy - in America and globally. https://t.co/paI7Q8n6Za
- Ben Rhodes (@brhodes) June 3, 2021

Солью на раны стал меморандум Байдена о борьбе с коррупцией.

"Corruption corrodes public trust; hobbles effective governance; distorts markets and equitable access to services; undercuts development efforts; contributes to national fragility, extremism, and migration; and provides authoritarian leaders a means to undermine democracies worldwide. When leaders steal from their nations’ citizens or oligarchs flout the rule of law, economic growth slows, inequality widens, and trust in government plummets. <...>
In issuing this National Security Study Memorandum, I establish countering corruption as a core United States national security interest. My Administration will lead efforts to promote good governance; bring transparency to the United States and global financial systems; prevent and combat corruption at home and abroad; and make it increasingly difficult for corrupt actors to shield their activities."
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/06/03/memorandum-on-establishing-the-fight-against-corruption-as-a-core-united-states-national-security-interest/

Warning to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the dozens of other klepto-dictators around the world: This means you. The U.S. intelligence community has just been tasked to investigate how and where you hide your money.
If Biden is serious - and frankly, that’s still a big “if” - this could mark a significant turn in U.S. foreign policy. For the sad truth is that the corrupt oligarchs of the world do their business in dollars. U.S.-trained lawyers create their shell companies; U.S.-educated bankers help them hide their assets; U.S. foreign policy often tolerates or even encourages their thievery. This is one crusade that truly must begin at home.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/06/03/bidens-trying-crack-down-international-corruption-lets-hope-it-works-this-time/

The Caucus against Foreign Corruption and Kleptocracy will be launching on June 10 at 4PM. Join for remarks by @SenatorCardin @Malinowski @RepJohnCurtis @USRepKeating @RepBrianFitz & a panel with @transparencyUSA @NateSibley @f_obermaier & @FDD!https://t.co/g6pnkeunYD pic.twitter.com/mlph5tOTwj
- Caucus against Foreign Corruption and Kleptocracy (@KleptoCaucus) June 2, 2021

Существенные реформы требуют законодательного подкрепления. В Конгрессе межпартийная группа зарегистрировала "Caucus against Foreign Corruption and Kleptocracy" и внесла новый законопроект CROOK (Countering Russian and Other Overseas Kleptocracy Act). Шанс, что дело сдвинется, значительно выше нуля.

"Last month, we introduced the Countering Russian and Other Overseas Kleptocracy (CROOK) Act to upgrade America’s anti-corruption efforts by targeting kleptocracy at the source. The CROOK Act would create an anti-corruption action fund to help activists leverage public sentiment to achieve lasting reform, without any additional cost to taxpayers. The fund would be financed through a $5 million surcharge on entities found liable for $50 million or more in criminal fines and penalties under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). Based on data from the last 10 years, this bill would put an additional $16 million per year toward global anti-corruption work. Funds would continue to accrue until a historic window of opportunity opens, at which point funds would be rapidly deployed to help establish the rule of law.
Imagine if the United States had been able to inject more anti-corruption resources into Ukraine after the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, or Armenia after the 2018 Velvet Revolution, or Malaysia after its 2018 election. If the United States had been ready with an anti-corruption action fund, we could have dramatically amplified the work of courageous reformers to establish lasting change, and ultimately make the United States more secure. <...>
The world’s most prominent anti-corruption advocates have all endorsed the CROOK Act, including Transparency International USA and the Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency (FACT) Coalition. Like much of the legislation that has emerged from the U.S. Helsinki Commission on which we serve, this bill enjoys bipartisan support in both the House and the Senate.
Fighting corruption is an imperative for the United States. As a beacon of liberty and the rule of law, it is our duty and the purest expression of our values. It is also a highly practical form of soft power that advances our national security. Allocating the right resources for this fight is a small price to pay for advancing good governance abroad and creating a more stable world. Passing the CROOK Act would be decisive step in the right direction."
https://www.justsecurity.org/75468/corruption-is-a-national-security-threat-the-crook-act-is-a-smart-way-to-fight-it/