Осуществление угроз

[tijd]

Время вернуться к переоценке обозначенных прежде угроз.

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1. Ядерная война.

Угроза новой войны пока не осуществилась, хотя по числу жертв пандемия приближается к войне.

В Пентагоне прибавилось новых мутных назначенцев, вроде Симоны Ледин и Эзры Коэна. В случае второго срока они могут сыграть свою роль.

The White House on Monday announced that it was assigning Michael Kratsios, a 33-year-old White House chief technology officer, as the head of research and engineering for the entire DoD. Kratsios, who has a bachelor's degree in political science, is replacing Michael Griffin, a former NASA administrator with a Ph.D. in aerospace engineering.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/17/trump-loyalists-pentagon-366922

President Donald Trump has installed a nominee for a top Pentagon job in a senior Department of Defense post on a temporary basis after lawmakers abruptly canceled his confirmation hearing last week amid lingering questions about his fitness for the role.
Retired Army Brig. Gen. Anthony Tata, a novelist, former state government official and Fox News regular, withdrew Sunday from consideration to be undersecretary of defense for policy, a position that requires Senate confirmation, the Pentagon said in a statement emailed to POLITICO Sunday.
Instead, he has been designated as the official "performing the duties of" the deputy undersecretary of defense policy. The position Tata will assume is one that James H. Anderson was confirmed for in June; Anderson has also been serving as acting undersecretary of defense policy and will remain in that post.
Since Trump announced his intent to nominate Tata earlier this year, the former Army general has been widely criticized for tweets calling former President Barack Obama a "terrorist leader" and referring to Islam as the "most oppressive violent religion I know of," among other controversial statements.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/02/donald-trump-anthony-tata-pentagon-390851



Из вычищенного ранее окружения Майкла Флинна в Пентагон пытаются пристроить также конспиролога Рича Хиггинса.

The White House is pushing the Department of Defense to hire a former National Security Council staffer who has repeatedly pushed fringe conspiracy theories on Twitter and in media appearances.
Rich Higgins, a former aide who says he was fired from the National Security Council in 2017 for sending a conspiratorial memo, is currently being considered to serve as chief of staff to retired Brig. Gen. Anthony Tata, the White House's nominee for the under secretary of defense for policy at the Pentagon.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/20/politics/rich-higgins-conspiracy-theorist-kfile/index.html



А после вывода войск из Германии самое время назначить туда послом очередного расистского путиниста.

Macgregor is a genuine war hero - he commanded a pivotal tank battle during the 1991 Gulf War - who developed a reputation as a maverick and innovator within the army. But since retiring, he has gone very far off the deep end. He is reminiscent of retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser who recently endorsed the QAnon cult, and retired Brig. Gen. Anthony J. Tata, who has just been appointed as acting deputy undersecretary of defense after failing to win Senate confirmation thanks to his racist rants.
CNN’s Kfile team has compiled a lengthy list of Macgregor’s horrifying views - many of them expressed on Fox “News.” He says that immigration from Mexico is our greatest national security threat and that Democrats are trying to “create demographic change that will make them the permanent power inside the borders of the United States.” He advocates that we declare martial law along the border and “shoot people” if necessary.
Macgregor has also been an outspoken critic of Merkel’s government. He claims that Germany “seems more concerned about providing free services to millions of unwanted Muslim invaders, to be blunt, than it does about its own armed forces in the defense of its country.” He even thinks that Germany has gone too far in making penance for Nazi crimes: “There’s sort of a sick mentality that says that generations after generations must atone for the sins of what happened in 13 years of German history and ignore the other 1,500 years of Germany.”
Like Trump, Macgregor has cast doubt on the NATO alliance, saying that we should withdraw our troops in Germany and make it clear “that we are not going to be the first responder” if allies are attacked by Russia. Also like Trump, Macgregor has a disquieting tendency to echo Vladimir Putin’s propaganda. While appearing on Russia’s state-owned RT, he justified the Russian invasion of Ukraine by falsely saying that eastern and southern Ukrainians are “clearly Russian” and “should be allowed to join Russia.” By contrast, he criticized the U.S. intervention to stop the ethnic cleansing of Muslims by “Orthodox Christian Serbs in Kosovo.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/05/richard-grenell-was-bad-enough-ambassador-germany-douglas-macgregor-would-be-even-worse/

Asked if he supports protesters in Belarus, Trump mishears the reporter and offers a Freudian slip -- "protesters and terrorists?" Then, after paying lip service to democracy, he takes the opportunity to bash "so-called peaceful protesters" in Portland. pic.twitter.com/NvulVR26zi
- Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 18, 2020

2. «Поджог Рейхстага».

Сценарий "поджога Рейхстага" (использования кризиса для укрепления власти и наступления на права человека) частично осуществился с "зелеными человечками" в Портленде и Вашингтоне, но пока что буксует.

Но пока Барр остается генеральным прокурором, а министерством нацбезопасности руководят незаконно назначенные ставленники Стивена Миллера, этот сценарий остается вероятным.

The top two officials at the Department of Homeland Security, acting Secretary Chad Wolf and Ken Cuccinelli, the senior official performing the duties of deputy secretary, are not legally qualified to hold those positions, a government watchdog concluded Friday.
The Government Accountability Office said Wolf and Cuccinelli assumed those jobs under an order of succession that was issued by an acting secretary who himself had no authority to hold his job. That former acting head was Kevin McAleenan, who took over after the last Homeland secretary to be confirmed by the Senate, Kirstjen Nielsen, resigned.
GAO's conclusion has no force of law, but the agency said it is referring its conclusion to the Department of Homeland Security's inspector general. Friday's findings could, however, be cited in lawsuits challenging DHS policies, including stricter immigration controls.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/congressional-watchdog-finds-acting-dhs-chief-wolf-senior-aide-cuccinelli-n1236735

3. Увольнение Мюллера.

Проехали.

4. Прикручивание расследований в Конгрессе.

Проехали.

Fascinating artifact from Senate Intel report: old fan mail from Trump to Putin pic.twitter.com/ijjhZweTHK
- Mike McIntire (@mmcintire) August 18, 2020

Почти тысяча страниц в пятом томе отчета комиссии Сената по разведке (о контрразведовательной составляющей) стали настоящей энциклопедией Рашагейта и проясняют множество деталей, остававшихся темными после отчета Мюллера.
https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/publications/report-select-committee-intelligence-united-states-senate-russian-active-measures

Вывод демократов в комиссии: "It is our conclusion, based on the facts detailed in the Committee's Report, that the Russian intelligence services' assault on the integrity of the 2016 U.S. electoral process and Trump and his associates' participation in and enabling of this Russian activity, represents one of the single most grave counterintelligence threats to American national security in the modern era."

And here are the two related paintings, which maybe Trump will get when he overturns sanctions during the Transition. pic.twitter.com/YdlCK4D0O7
- emptywheel (@emptywheel) August 19, 2020

Дополнительные детали:

- The Committee's bipartisan Report unambiguously shows that members of the Trump Campaign cooperated with Russian efforts to get Trump elected. It recounts efforts by Trump and his team to obtain dirt on their opponent from operatives acting on behalf of the Russian government. It reveals the extraordinary lengths by which Trump and his associates actively_sought to enable the Russian interference operation by amplifying its electoral impact and rewarding its perpetrators - even after being warned of its Russian origins. And it presents, for the first time, concerning evidence that the head of the Trump Campaign was directly connected to the Russian meddling through his communications with an individual found to be a Russian intelligence officer.
- These are stubborn facts that cannot be ignored. They build on the Committee's bipartisan findings in Volume 2 and Volume 4 that show an extensive Kremlin-directed effort to covertly help candidate Trump in 2016, and they speak to a willingness by a major party candidate and his associates, in the face of a foreign adversary's assault on the political integrity of the United States, to welcome that foreign threat in exchange for advancing their own self-interest.
- The Committee's bipartisan Report found that Paul Manafort, while he was Chairman of the Trump Campaign, was secretly communicating with a Russian intelligence officer with whom he discussed Campaign strategy and repeatedly shared internal Campaign polling data. This took place while the Russian intelligence operation to assist Trump was ongoing. Further, Manafort took steps to hide these communications and repeatedly lied to federal investigators, and his deputy on the Campaign destroyed evidence of communications with the Russian intelligence officer. The Committee obtained some information suggesting that the Russian intelligence officer, with whom Manafort had a longstanding relationship, may have been connected to the GRU's hack-and-leak operation targeting the 2016 U.S. election. This is what collusion looks like.
- The Committee's bipartisan Report found that a member of the Trump Campaign's foreign policy advisory team was provided with advance notice of the Russian plot to anonymously release hacked emails that would damage Trump's opponent, and the Report found that it is implausible that this information was. not passed to the Campaign. The advance notice
of a forthcoming covert Russian intervention on Trump's behalf came from an individual linked to the Russian government, and took place in April 2016, prior to any public awareness of the Russian meddling effort. No authorities were notified.
- The Committee's bipartisan Report found that Russia's goal in its unprecedented hack-and-leak operation against the United States in 2016, among other motives, was to assist the Trump Campaign. Candidate Trump and his Campaign responded to that threat by embracing, encouraging, and exploiting the Russian effort. Trump solicited inside information in advance of WikiLeaks's· expected releases of stolen information, even after public reports widely attributed the activity to Russia, so as to maximize his electoral benefit. The Campaign crafted a strategy around these anticipated releases to amplify the dissemination and promotion of the stolen documents. Even after the US. government formally announced the hack-and-leak campaign as a Russian government effort, Trump's embrace of the stolen documents and his efforts to minimize the attribution to Russia only continued. The Committee's Report clearly shows that Trump and his Campaign were not mere bystanders in this attack - they were active participants. They coordinated their activities with the releases of the hacked Russian data, magnified the effects of a known Russian campaign, and welcomed the mutual benefit from the Russian activity.
- Additionally, the Committee's bipartisan Report shows that, at the June 9, 2016 meeting in Trump Tower, senior members of the Campaign sought, explicitly, to receive derogatory information for electoral benefit from a Russian lawyer known to have ties to the Russian government, with the understanding that the information was part of "Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump." Prior to and during that meeting, members of the Trump Campaign's leadership clearly stated their desire to receive the promised derogatory Russian information, and ultimately they also clearly expressed their displeasure that the Russian information that was presented was not sufficiently damaging. That the Campaign leadership's desire to coordinate with Russia failed in this particular instance is hardly exculpatory; instead, it is emblematic of the leadership's mindset, intent and willingness. to work with Russia in hopes of influencing the U.S. election to their benefit. The Committee's investigation found that the Russian lawyer that the Campaign leadership met with in Trump Tower, and one of her colleagues who also participated in the meeting, both have significant and concerning ties to Russian intelligence.
- Trump's Russia-friendly statements and policies during the Campaign did not occur in isolation. The Committee's bipartisan Report shows that, during the campaign, Donald ' Trump and the Trump Organization were pursuing a business deal in Russia. This is a topic about which the Campaign and its associates misled the public and Congress. The Committee's Report shows that Trump's outreach to the Kremlin began early and that during the Republican primary campaign, around the time that Trump authorized pursuit of the Russia deal, Trump asked for an in-person meeting with Putin. That request was relayed to the Kremlin. The Committee's Report shows that, during the campaign; Trump was kept up-to-date on the progress of the Russia deal and made positive public comments about Putin, in connection with the campaign, while deal negotiations were ongoing. During the campaign individuals working for or with the Trump Organization were in contact with the Kremlin regarding the deal and sought to leverage Trump's positive comments about Putin to advance the deal. A U.S. intelligence assessment indicates that Putin, who ordered the Russian operation that assisted Trump in the 2016 election, had a preference for leaders whose business interests made them more likely to deal with Russia. This made Trump uniquely appealing in Moscow, and the Committee's investigation found that Kremlin-directed influence efforts worked to undermine Republican candidates who ran against Trump in the U.S. presidential primary.
- There may be some who attempt to minimize the seriousness of Trump's actions, or the actions of his associates, by arguing that these individuals were motivated simply by self-interest or self-promotion. This argument overlooks that when self-interest is intertwined with the goals of a malign Russian influence operation, and when self-interest promotes the known Russian effort while also being promoted by that same Russian effort, then self-interest and Russia's interest become one and the same. Moreover, this argument misunderstands the deep counterintelligence vulnerability that is created when those who seek positions of great power, or proximity to that power, are willing to trade away national security for personal gain. There is good reason that such individuals are Putin's preferred interlocutors, and there is good reason why the U.S. security clearance application asks extensively about vulnerabilities that could be
used as leverage, including foreign financial interests.
- Candidate Trump's pursuit of private business in Russia during the campaign, and his
Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort's deep financial ties to a Kremlin-aligned Russian oligarch during the campaign, are not the only sources of leverage to which Trump and his Campaign were vulnerable. The Committee's bipartisan Report shows that during the campaign Trump maintained personal correspondence with a Russian oligarch and his adult son on topics including the upcoming U.S. election. The Moscow-based oligarch and his son, who were involved in offering the Trump Campaign derogatory information related to the election and who gave Trump a sizable gift during the Campaign, maintain significant and concerning connections not only to Kremlin leadership but also to Russian organized crime. Trump had previously done business with the oligarch in Moscow. The Committee's Report also shows that prior to and during the campaign, Trump was informed of alleged compromising tapes of him in Moscow. These allegations are separate from Christopher Steele's reports, which were not used to support the Committee's work. The Committee found that the Russian intelligence services clearly engage in the collection of compromising information for lev~rage, and that there may be substance to some of the allegations regarding Trump, which leaves open an ongoing concern about Russian influence operations.
- Finally, the Committee's bipartisan Report shows that almost immediately following
Election Day in 2016, the Trump transition responded to Russia's election interference not by supporting punitive action, but rather by holding a series of secretive meetings and communications with Russian representatives that served to undercut the outgoing administration's efforts to hold Russia accountable. The transition's openness to this private Russian outreach prior to taking office, so soon after Russia's interference on Trump's behalf, combined with Trump publicly questioning Russia's involvement, signaled that there was little intention by the incoming administration to punish Russia for the assistance it had just provided in its unprecedented attack on American democracy.

7/ As Trump RTs @GovernmentRF propaganda and suggests meeting @KremlinRussia_E before the election, it begs one last question: whether the USIC is now positioned to understand the dire consequences of a president whose behavior poses a mountain of still-unanswered CI concerns.
- Peter Strzok (@petestrzok) August 19, 2020

5. Бесплодное окончание расследования Мюллера.

Угроза осуществилась наполовину. Мюллер сделал многое, не выходя за рамки. Но освобождение Роджера Стоуна от наказания помешало осуществлению правосудия. Судьба Майкла Флинна висит на волоске. Ни Мюллер, ни сенатская комиссия не стали расследовать финансы Трампа, где, очевидно, можно было бы много накапать. Так что немного проклятой неизвестности все еще остается...

A federal appeals court appears poised to block an effort by former national security adviser Michael Flynn to immediately dismiss the criminal charge against him, raising the specter that the politically explosive case could continue to make headlines in the lead-up to the Nov. 3 election.
The court, in an unusual full-bench session on Tuesday that ran to almost four hours, sounded sharply skeptical about arguments by Flynn’s attorney and the Justice Department that U.S. District Court Judge Emmet Sullivan abused his authority by scheduling a hearing on efforts to drop the case, which came despite Flynn’s pleading guilty to lying to the FBI and later reaffirming his plea.
If the appeals court rules against Flynn, the decision could create a vivid pre-election spectacle through a hearing that could draw attention both to Flynn’s conduct and the claims of abuse of power he has leveled at FBI agents and prosecutors - allegations echoed often by President Donald Trump. It could also crimp the president’s ability to turn to Flynn as a pre-election surrogate.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/11/federal-appeals-court-michael-flynn-dismissal-393638