Game Theory

[psyllogism]

The other day on Twitter I innocently asked:

Ideally, how often should the "most skilled" player win at a game?

I was inspired by this post on the BoardGameGeek forums, which posed the question in terms of a four player board game and asked for answers in terms of actual percentages. I thought it was a neat, almost philosophical question about

Comments

[magus341]

I suppose my answer will be considered by some to be a cop out. Society has games ranging from 100% to 1/n where n is the number of players. In a race, the fastest person wins - 100% of the time. Then there are games where the more skilled player wins 95% of the time, like martial arts or gymnastics. A less skilled player can win, but only if the better player really messes up. Team sports probably range from 80% (American football) to 60% (baseball or soccer).

Likewise, with strategy games, chess is a 100% game. Perfect information and no random elements means the better player always wins. At the other end of the spectrum, you have the card game "war" where it is 50%. Many gambling games are similar to that, where the probabilities are determined regardless of the player, such as roulette.

Finally, social games are hardest to estimate, such as Risk and Settlers of Catan. Complexity is randomness. Nothing is random to God, they only appear random to us because we don't understand all the factors involved. Since the mind is so complicated, it is nearly impossible to predict what people will do in a social environment. Thus, figuring out probabilities in these games are very difficult. I would say my ideal skill random split is about 60% skill, 40% luck. The more skilled player only doesn't win if the luck really goes against them.

[magus341]

P.S. I'm really starting to like Twitter, it's the haiku of computers.

[psyllogism]

Have you started a Twitter feed yourself, yet? ;-)

[magus341]

Nope. I use Facebook for tweet-like statements and LJ for anything bigger.

[psyllogism]

Good call on the card game "War" as a totally hidden information, totally random "game".

I might argue with you on a philosophical/metaphysical basis about "Nothing is random to God, they only appear random to us because we don't understand all the factors involved", but that's a post for another time ;-)