The 50th President
I live and work in the region of Washington, D.C., and Barack Obama is a very popular guy around here. In every gift shop store window are knick-knacks and posters and t-shirts featuring his image and inspiring words, etc. Emblazoned under many of them are the words "The 44th President".
The focus on "The 44th" is a little jarring. What's so special about 44? It's not a Big Round Number, like "the year 2000" or "the 100th episode", that I would expect people to get worked up about. No, something like "the 50th president" would sound more impactful.
Which got me thinking: when would we see the 50th president? That's only "six presidents away", but how long is that? Will I be voting for them soon, or when I'm much older with a much different perspective, or will I be too senile in a nursing home to be able to vote?
Time to break out the calculations! If President Obama dies in office, then we get President Biden as number 45. He selects a new Vice-President, and then if Biden dies, we get number 46... etc. So one can imagine a chain of national tragedies of presidential death after presidential death leading us to president number 50 in an relatively short amount of time. In other words, there is no hard lower limit on how soon we will reach #50.
Let's be a little less morbid. Let's say Obama tanks the economy and the world diplomatic situation and gets booted out of office in 2012 (I did say "a little less morbid"). Then the next sucker continues the screw up and gets booted out in 2016 after one term... etc. So Obama and each successive president serves only exactly one term until we reach #50. Well, that takes us to the year 2032 for #50's election; not too far away if you think about it.
Let's look at it from the other end. Let's say Obama does a fantastic job and gets reelected. Then he's term-limited, so another person gets elected prez in 2016. That person does such a great job that they get two terms, too... etc. Then we have to wait until the election of 2056 to elect #50. Which is a little longer.
Also, there could be a constitutional amendment repealing the two term limit. Then, if we had a string of very successful presidents with more than two terms each between them, there would be no hard upper limit on how long until we reach #50.
The reality of course will be somewhere in between. So what does history show us is the average time to go from president N to president N+6? I dusted off some of the Python skills I learned last year and came up with this:
The historical minimum is 16 years, representing Van Buren (#8) through Franklin Pierce (#14); a period which inlcudes the deaths of William Henry Harrison (in office only about a month before dying) and Zachary Taylor (in office only just over a year before dying) plus a bunch of one-term presidents.
The historical mean is approximately 29 years. The historical median, however, is only 28 years, and represents Monroe (#5) through Polk (#11), Eisenhower (#34) through Reagan (#40), and JFK (#35) through George H.W. Bush (#41). Interestingly, this is only a little bit longer than if each president served only one term. I think maybe this says something about American history, but I'm not sure what.
The historical maximum is 41 years, representing FDR (#32) through Ford (#38), because FDR served longer than they maximum two terms served by everyone else, plus there were a number of reelected presidents in that time period including Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, and Nixon.
Well there you have it. And now, with my curiosity satisfied and shared, it's time to get back to work.
The focus on "The 44th" is a little jarring. What's so special about 44? It's not a Big Round Number, like "the year 2000" or "the 100th episode", that I would expect people to get worked up about. No, something like "the 50th president" would sound more impactful.
Which got me thinking: when would we see the 50th president? That's only "six presidents away", but how long is that? Will I be voting for them soon, or when I'm much older with a much different perspective, or will I be too senile in a nursing home to be able to vote?
Time to break out the calculations! If President Obama dies in office, then we get President Biden as number 45. He selects a new Vice-President, and then if Biden dies, we get number 46... etc. So one can imagine a chain of national tragedies of presidential death after presidential death leading us to president number 50 in an relatively short amount of time. In other words, there is no hard lower limit on how soon we will reach #50.
Let's be a little less morbid. Let's say Obama tanks the economy and the world diplomatic situation and gets booted out of office in 2012 (I did say "a little less morbid"). Then the next sucker continues the screw up and gets booted out in 2016 after one term... etc. So Obama and each successive president serves only exactly one term until we reach #50. Well, that takes us to the year 2032 for #50's election; not too far away if you think about it.
Let's look at it from the other end. Let's say Obama does a fantastic job and gets reelected. Then he's term-limited, so another person gets elected prez in 2016. That person does such a great job that they get two terms, too... etc. Then we have to wait until the election of 2056 to elect #50. Which is a little longer.
Also, there could be a constitutional amendment repealing the two term limit. Then, if we had a string of very successful presidents with more than two terms each between them, there would be no hard upper limit on how long until we reach #50.
The reality of course will be somewhere in between. So what does history show us is the average time to go from president N to president N+6? I dusted off some of the Python skills I learned last year and came up with this:
The historical minimum is 16 years, representing Van Buren (#8) through Franklin Pierce (#14); a period which inlcudes the deaths of William Henry Harrison (in office only about a month before dying) and Zachary Taylor (in office only just over a year before dying) plus a bunch of one-term presidents.
The historical mean is approximately 29 years. The historical median, however, is only 28 years, and represents Monroe (#5) through Polk (#11), Eisenhower (#34) through Reagan (#40), and JFK (#35) through George H.W. Bush (#41). Interestingly, this is only a little bit longer than if each president served only one term. I think maybe this says something about American history, but I'm not sure what.
The historical maximum is 41 years, representing FDR (#32) through Ford (#38), because FDR served longer than they maximum two terms served by everyone else, plus there were a number of reelected presidents in that time period including Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, and Nixon.
Well there you have it. And now, with my curiosity satisfied and shared, it's time to get back to work.