The 2016 Election Swing States: Pennsylvania
Is Pennsylvania a swing state? It depends who you talk to. The Republicans certainly think it is, and have been working hard in the state to take it down from what has been called "the blue wall". This is a term used by CNN's Jon King and other political analysts. It is based on the theory that in Presidential elections, the Democratic Party are presumed to have a long on at least 18 states (and the District of Columbia), based on the results of the past 6 presidential elections, giving them 242 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. The 18 states are (in order of decreasing population): California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Vermont, as well as the District of Columbia.
Pollster Nate Silver in his website FiveThirtyEight.com believes that Pennsylvania is solidly in the Clinton camp. He gives Hillary Clinton a 74.4% chance of winning the state. The New York Times has her odds even higher at 89%. Polling in the state is much closer. RealClearPolitics, in its aggregate of polls, shows Clinton with only a 2.5% lead, and a recent poll taken by Harper Polling shows the two candidates tied at 46%. It is significant to note however that throughout this election year, all of the aggregate polling data in Pennsylvania shows Clinton ahead of Donald Trump.
On Friday Donald Trump spoke to a packed crowd in a hockey arena in Hershey, Pennsylvania. Yesterday Hillary Clinton included a stop in Philadelphia. The New York Times has observed:
"No state has been so tempting, yet so elusive, for Republicans than Pennsylvania. Mitt Romney made a last-minute trip there four years ago when it was clear that he needed to find an alternate path to 270, and Mr. Trump has refused to give up on it despite every public poll showing that he’s losing there."
Pennsylvania elections are typically decided in the heavily populated Philadelphia region. Thus far, Hillary Clinton has appeared to have strong support in this region, benefiting from the mix of suburban moderates and liberal city voters. A concern for Democrats however is that there is no in-person early voting in the state. The party's "get out the vote" operation is concerned about turnout among millennials and African-Americans, an important component of Barack Obama’s two wins in the state.
Clinton has campaigned in Philadelphia twice in the campaign’s closing days, once with singer Katy Perry on Saturday night. A second trip is planned for Monday night's pre-election rally with First Lady Michelle Obama. Philadelphia was also the site of this year's successful Democratic National Convention.
The Trump campaign is still hopeful for a breakthrough in the Keystone State. Democratic voter registration has dropped and Pittsburgh appears to be a city in which the GOP are making gains. There are a lot of white voters without college degrees in the state, a demographic that has been polling strongly for Trump. In July, former Democratic Governor Ed Rendell said that Trump’s message on trade and “law-and-order” was appealing to Pennsylvanians. They also cite the drop in Clinton's poll numbers. Though RealClearPolitics polling average for Pennsylvania shows her with a 2.5% lead, she had been leading by an average of 4.9% just four days ago and she led 8.6% on October 9, and by 10% on August 25. The race was a virtual tie in late July after the Republican National Convention and again in late September after Clinton’s health episode at the September 11 memorial. Her lead increased again after the Billy Bush tape and sexual misconduct allegations against Trump, but it’s narrowing once again with just a few days to go before the election. One poll says that white women are once again indicating that they will vote for him. Since Pennsylvania does not allow in-person early voting, the Trump campaign believes that this helps them because Trump's standing in the polls has shifted significantly in the past week.
If Trump wins the state on Tuesday, it will probably be part of a victorious campaign. A Clinton victory here does not guarantee a win in the general election, but it makes it a lot easier for her.
Pollster Nate Silver in his website FiveThirtyEight.com believes that Pennsylvania is solidly in the Clinton camp. He gives Hillary Clinton a 74.4% chance of winning the state. The New York Times has her odds even higher at 89%. Polling in the state is much closer. RealClearPolitics, in its aggregate of polls, shows Clinton with only a 2.5% lead, and a recent poll taken by Harper Polling shows the two candidates tied at 46%. It is significant to note however that throughout this election year, all of the aggregate polling data in Pennsylvania shows Clinton ahead of Donald Trump.
On Friday Donald Trump spoke to a packed crowd in a hockey arena in Hershey, Pennsylvania. Yesterday Hillary Clinton included a stop in Philadelphia. The New York Times has observed:
"No state has been so tempting, yet so elusive, for Republicans than Pennsylvania. Mitt Romney made a last-minute trip there four years ago when it was clear that he needed to find an alternate path to 270, and Mr. Trump has refused to give up on it despite every public poll showing that he’s losing there."
Pennsylvania elections are typically decided in the heavily populated Philadelphia region. Thus far, Hillary Clinton has appeared to have strong support in this region, benefiting from the mix of suburban moderates and liberal city voters. A concern for Democrats however is that there is no in-person early voting in the state. The party's "get out the vote" operation is concerned about turnout among millennials and African-Americans, an important component of Barack Obama’s two wins in the state.
Clinton has campaigned in Philadelphia twice in the campaign’s closing days, once with singer Katy Perry on Saturday night. A second trip is planned for Monday night's pre-election rally with First Lady Michelle Obama. Philadelphia was also the site of this year's successful Democratic National Convention.
The Trump campaign is still hopeful for a breakthrough in the Keystone State. Democratic voter registration has dropped and Pittsburgh appears to be a city in which the GOP are making gains. There are a lot of white voters without college degrees in the state, a demographic that has been polling strongly for Trump. In July, former Democratic Governor Ed Rendell said that Trump’s message on trade and “law-and-order” was appealing to Pennsylvanians. They also cite the drop in Clinton's poll numbers. Though RealClearPolitics polling average for Pennsylvania shows her with a 2.5% lead, she had been leading by an average of 4.9% just four days ago and she led 8.6% on October 9, and by 10% on August 25. The race was a virtual tie in late July after the Republican National Convention and again in late September after Clinton’s health episode at the September 11 memorial. Her lead increased again after the Billy Bush tape and sexual misconduct allegations against Trump, but it’s narrowing once again with just a few days to go before the election. One poll says that white women are once again indicating that they will vote for him. Since Pennsylvania does not allow in-person early voting, the Trump campaign believes that this helps them because Trump's standing in the polls has shifted significantly in the past week.
If Trump wins the state on Tuesday, it will probably be part of a victorious campaign. A Clinton victory here does not guarantee a win in the general election, but it makes it a lot easier for her.