October Surprises: Trump v. Clinton (2016)
In 2016, it looked like it was finally time for the country to elect a woman as President of the United States. Hillary Clinton had expected to be the Democratic Party's nominee for President eight years earlier in 2008, but a charismatic Illinois Senator who had not even served a full term in the Senate, named Barack Obama, snatched that prize. In 2016 Obama was ineligible to pursue a third term due to the term limits established by the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution.
But in 2016 Clinton secured the nomination over U.S. senator Bernie Sanders, an independent, making her the first female presidential nominee of a major American political party.
More surprising was the Republican contest, where New York real estate developer and television star Donald Trump emerged as his party's front-runner amidst a wide field of candidates. At first many considered Trump's seeking the Presidency as a pipe dream and a subject of amusement. But as Trump won primary after primary, on his promise to "Make America Great Again," and his vilifying illegal immigration and political correctness. The novelty of his campaign and his unfiltered message garnered extensive free media. Clinton campaigned on her extensive political experience, and she denounced Trump and many of his supporters, calling them a "basket of deplorables." This tactic likely backfired, as many voters perceived her message as elitist and as a criticism of their middle class lives and their residing in the heartland of the country.
The tone of the general election campaign was widely characterized as divisive, negative, and troubling. Trump faced controversy over his views on immigration, which many perceived as racist. There were also incidents of violence at his rallies
Two October surprises dropped late in the campaign that threatened to torpedo both campaigns. The first looked like it might be a knockout punch for Trump. The first occurred on October 7, 2016, when the Washington Post released a video of Trump talking candidly with TV personality Billy Bush, as they were preparing to film an episode of the show Access Hollywood in 2005. In the video, Trump described his attempts to initiate a sexual relationship with a married woman and boasted about how many attractive women would allow male celebrities like him to touch them sexually. In the video Trump used the phrase "grab 'em by the pussy," words that would thereafter be repeated during the campaign. These comments were met with disgust from the media. Trump never apologized for the comments and instead went on the attack, stating that this was just "locker room talk" and that her opponent's husband (former President Bill Clinton) had done much worse by his actions.
The incident was condemned by numerous prominent Republicans, including Trump's future Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, former Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney, Ohio Governor John Kasich, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. By October 8, several dozen Republicans had called for Trump to withdraw from the campaign and let Pence and Condoleezza Rick be the Republican ticket. Trump insisted he would never drop out. At the next Presidential candidates' debate, Trump countered these attacks by having several women who had accused Bill Clinton of sexual assault attend the debate. This strategy seemed to deflect much of the criticism of Trump over this issue.
The second "October Surprise" concerned an FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. During her time as Secretary of State, Clinton chose to use a private email address and server, rather than State Department servers, despite criticism of this practice by former Secretaries of State from both parties. Concerns were raised about security and preservation of emails, and the possibility that laws may have been violated. After allegations were raised that some of the emails in her private email address were classified, and therefore ought not to have been kept in her personal possession, an FBI probe was initiated regarding how classified information was handled on the Clinton server. The FBI probe was concluded on July 5, 2016, with a recommendation of no charges, a recommendation that was followed by the Justice Department. Trump made much of this during his campaign, and would often encourage his supporters at rallies to chant "lock her up" about Clinton.
It looked as if this issue was behind Clinton, but a decision made by FBI Director James Comey changed all that. On October 28, eleven days before the election, Comey informed Congress that the FBI was analyzing additional Clinton emails obtained during its investigation of an unrelated case involving former New York Congressman Anthony Weiner. This gave Trump the appearance of substance for his claims about "Crooked Hillary" and he was once again able to put his opponent on the defensive and give voters reason to mistrust her. On November 6, Comey notified Congress that the new emails did not change the FBI's earlier conclusion But by then the damage had been done. In the week following the "Comey Letter" of October 28, Clinton's lead dropped by 3 percentage points, leading some commentators - including Clinton herself - to conclude that this letter cost her the election.
Despite the polls favoring Clinton going into Election Day, Trump over-performed his polls, winning several key swing states. He lost the popular vote by 2.87 million votes, but won a majority in the Electoral College. Most significantly, he won in several states that were considered to be safe Democratic seats: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Clinton had refused suggestions that she campaign in those states late in the election, believing that they were safely in her column. She was wrong. Trump won by less than 80,000 votes in these three states with the combined 46 electoral votes, and this was considered the catalyst that won him the Electoral College vote. Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton 227. Two faithless electors refused to cast their electoral college votes for Trump, while five did likewise in Clinton's case.
Trump became the first president without any prior military service or elected office. He flipped six states that had voted Democratic four years earlier: the three aforementioned states as well as Florida, Ohio and Iowa. He also won Maine's 2nd Congressional district.
On January 6, 2017, a US Intelligence Community report concluded that the Russian government had interfered in the 2016 election in order to "undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency." A Special Counsel investigation to look into alleged collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign began in May 2017 and ended in March 2019. The investigation concluded that Russian interference to favor Trump's candidacy occurred "in sweeping and systematic fashion", but it "did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government."