The Making of the President 2024: The Swing States-North Carolina
For decades North Carolina has ended up in the Republican column when it came time to count the electoral votes. But this year Democrats are saying "not so fast." Former President Donald Trump won a narrow victory in North Carolina in 2020, but this year Democrats are hoping that they can turn the state blue just as they did with Georgia four years ago.
North Carolina was ranked as No. 19 in a recent set of rankings done by U.S. News and World Report. The state gets high marks in its economy and financial stability (eleventh in both categories), it is middle of the pack when it comes to health care (twenty-fourth) and its worst category is in infrastructure, where it is still ahead of nineteen other states (at thirty-first.)
The state is often referred to as a "purple state," but its voters have only given two Democratic presidential candidates its electoral votes since the early 1970s: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. North Carolina was consistently blue earlier in the 20th century, and the margins between Democratic and Republican candidates have been smaller in recent elections. The state has 16 electoral votes and it now has a Democratic Governor.
Before he exited the race, President Joe Biden had visited the state several times this year, including for a late-March event with Vice-President Kamala Harris that focused on health care. Biden spoke about Donald Trump’s targeting of the Affordable Care Act, which Biden’s former boss, Barack Obama, signed into law 14 years ago. The American Rescue Plan, a COVID-19 pandemic recovery measure that was a key legislative win for Biden, included financial incentives for states to expand Medicaid coverage for low-income residents. North Carolina Democratic Governor Roy Cooper used that funding to persuade Republican lawmakers to support his plan, and more than 600,000 residents were expected to qualify for that extended coverage.
When Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee for President, Cooper was said to be on the short list to be Harris's sunning mate. He asked to be taken off of that list, expressing concern that doing so could turn the Governor's mansion over to the Republicans, and Harris eventually chose Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. Harris visited Raleigh, North Carolina, for a campaign event on August 16, at which she laid out her economic agenda. She visited the state again on September 12th, after her debate with Donald Trump.
Trump held a rally in Greensboro in March, where he spoke about immigration. He described the southern border as an “open and gushing wound” and said “migrant crime” is a new problem under Biden. On July 24, the former president returned to North Carolina for a rally in Charlotte, where he called Harris “incompetent” and the “ultra liberal driving force behind every single Biden catastrophe.” Trump came to Asheville, North Carolina, for a rally on August 14, where he claimed the country “has become a third-world nation … a banana republic in so many ways.” On September 6, Trump received the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police at the union’s convention in Charlotte.
About 62% of North Carolina’s population is non-Hispanic white, with about a 22.2% Black or African American population. The state's Hispanic population is estimated at 10.5%. Harris needs a sizeable chunk of these minorities to win the state. Women make up 51% of North Carolina’s population. The independent vote also remains important both in North Carolina. A plurality of the state’s registered voters as of late last year were unaffiliated (36.11%), while 32.93% were members of the Democratic Party and 30.28% were registered with the Republican Party.
Polling from earlier this year considered what issues are on the minds of the state's voters. A poll taken in early April poll from Quinnipiac University found that \a plurality of Republicans (43%) saw immigration as the most urgent issue facing the country today, while the largest share of Democrats (33%) saw the concept of preserving democracy in the U.S. as their first choice. Overall, immigration was chosen by 23% of respondents, while the economy got 22% and preserving democracy received 20%. A survey taken in March by Marist College found a tie in the top two issues. More than a quarter (26%) of residents said preserving democracy was top of mind regarding the November election, and the same percentage chose inflation, while 21% cited immigration. A February survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill had the economy as the top issue for 36% of voters, followed by health care (14%), education (12%), immigration (10%), housing affordability (8%), crime (7%), threats to democracy (6%) and abortion access (5%).
Polling data shows a very close race in the state. The New York Times polling has the candidates dead even in the state, each with 48% as of September 25. FiveThirtyEight.com has Trump slightly ahead at 47.7% and Harris at 47.3%. 270toWin.com has a similar lead for Trump, who leads Harris 47.4% to 46.9%. This polling is well within the margin of error, so this is truly a battleground state this election.
One issue that might influence the outcome of who the state prefers as president concerns a down-ballot race, the race for Governor. Cooper is term-limited, and North Carolina’s gubernatorial race is between Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson and Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein. Robinson, a strong supporter of Trump and vice-versa. Robinson a history of making controversial statements on issues such as LGBTQ+ rights, school shootings and the #MeToo movement, and Democrats will argue that he’s too polarizing to lead a purple state like North Carolina.
Robinson got into even more hot water recently when, on September 19th, it was revealed that Robinson had made many graphic remarks on the online pornography forum "Nude Africa" from 2008 to 2012 under the username "minisoldr", with Robinson being linked to accounts named "minisoldr" on several websites. The remarks made on Nude Africa included expressing support for slavery, using various homophobic, racial, and antisemitic slurs, admitting to enjoying transgender pornography, admitting to spying at women showering in public showers without their knowledge when he was 14 and continuing to fantasize about the experience as an adult, self-identifying as a "perv," and calling himself a "Black Nazi," and stating his support for Adolf Hitler over Barack Obama. In another remark he called Martin Luther King, Jr. a "commie bastard" and then stated: "If I was in the KKK, I would have called him Martin Lucifer Koon!" According to CNN, "minisoldr" on Nude Africa shared many of Robinson's personal details, and used several unconventional phrases that Robinson later used on Facebook from 2014 to 2017.
Robinson has denied these allegations and has accused Josh Stein of being responsible for the discovery of the Nude Africa account. He claimed that the account was generated by artificial intelligence The Nude Africa posts by "minisoldr" were deleted on the same day as CNN's report about them. Will this be an issue that affects who North Carolinians vote for as their choice for President? It adds to the excitement of what will certainly be a close race in the state.