Elections With Incumbents: The Election of 2004
As the 2004 presidential election approached, it looked as if incumbent President George W. Bush might go down to defeat. Bush had began his presidency in a shaky footing as many questioned the legitimacy of the 2000 election results after the United States Supreme Court shut down a recount of ballots in Florida and the state was awarded to Bush, deciding the election. But Bush's popularity shot upward rapidly following his response to the September 11th attacks, with his approval rating approaching the 90% level at one point. Later into his term however, Bush's popularity began to plummet again as many in the nation questioned why he was taking the nation to war against Iraq when no clear connection was shown between that nation and the September 11th attacks. Bush claimed that one of the justifications for the war was to prevent Iraqi dictator Sadaam Hussein from developing "weapons of mass destruction" for potential use against his nation, but as the American occupation of Iraq failed to provide proof of this assertion, Bush lost credibility among some Americans.
With national security as an important issue in the campaign, the Democratic Party soon discarded the initial front-runner, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, in favor of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran who later became a strong critic of that war. Dean had gained popularity for being one of the few Democrats who was consistent in his opposition to the war in Iraq. But in one of the early examples of the cruelty of social media, Dean was mocked for what was termed "the scream". Kerry did unexpectedly well in the Iowa caucuses while Dean slipped to third place. In a speech Dean gave at a post-caucus rally, he was shouting over the cheers of his enthusiastic audience. The media replayed his emotional ewhich came to be known as the "Dean Scream", which led to a debate on whether Dean was the victim of media bias.
Kerry went on to win the nomination and selected North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate. The Kerry/Edwards ticket unveiled their new slogan-a promise to make America "stronger at home and more respected in the world." Kerry made his Vietnam War experience the prominent theme of the convention. In accepting the nomination, he began his speech with, "I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty."
Bush framed his campaign around the issue of national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader. His spin doctors contrasted Bush with Kerry, and labeled the latter as a "flip-flopper." The intention was to have voters believe that Bush could be trusted to be tough on terrorism while Kerry would be uncertain in the face of danger. The Bush campaign also tried to portray Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal", who was out of touch with mainstream Americans. Kerry campaigned on the slogan "Stronger at home, respected in the world," meaning that he intended to pay more attention to domestic concerns, while rehabilitating the nation's image among its allies, which was damaged after Bush decided to proceed against Iraq unilaterally, without United Nations support or the support of many of America's allies. Kerry attempted to capitalize on Bush's dwindling popularity to rally anti-war sentiment. His campaign also sought to portray Bush as unintelligent.
Kerry's campaign also attacked Bush's character and events from his past. Bush was accused of failing to fulfill his required service in the Texas Air National Guard. But soon the focus shifted to the conduct of CBS News after they aired a segment on 60 Minutes Wednesday, introducing what became known as the Killian documents. When it was alleged that these documents were not authentic, CBS appointed a review panel that eventually resulted in the firing of the news producer and the demotion of anchor Dan Rather.
Kerry was attacked by a group known as the Swift Boat Vets and POWs for Truth, who accused him of exaggerating claims about his own service in Vietnam, and his deliberate misrepresentation of the nature and effectiveness of Swift boat operations. The group challenged the legitimacy of each of the combat medals awarded to Kerry by the U.S. Navy, and the disposition of his discharge.
A successful Republican National Convention showed Bush with a comfortable lead over Kerry. A post-convention Gallup poll showed the President leading his opponent by 14 points. But soon this lead eroded because of poor debate performance by Bush. In the first debate, held on September 30 at the University of Miami and moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS, Kerry accused Bush of having failed to gain international support for the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. The consensus was that Kerry won the debate decisively, giving his campaign momentum. Bush's performance was somewhat better at the second debate, held at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, on October 8, moderated by Charles Gibson of ABC and conducted in a town meeting format. The third and final debate was held at Arizona State University on October 13.
An "October surprise" in that election campaign took place on October 27, 2004. At this point in time Osama bin Laden, the terrorist responsible for the September 11th attacks, was still at large. Bin Laden released a video in which he claimed responsibility for the 9/11 attacks and called President Bush a dictator who repressed freedom by means of the Patriot Act. The release of the video worked to Bush's advantage, as he was perceived by more voters to be the candidate better able to deal with the issue of terrorist attacks. The video reignited public interest in national security. By targeting Bush for criticism, Bin Laden cast him in the role of his enemy, causing many voters to support their President. In the days following the video's release, Bush's lead over Kerry in the polls increased by several points.
The election turned on three "swing states": Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida which were seen as evenly divided. As the final results came in, Kerry took Pennsylvania and then Bush took Florida, focusing all attention on Ohio. The morning after the election, it was clear that the result in Ohio, along with two other states who had still not declared (New Mexico and Iowa), would decide the winner. Bush had established a lead of around 130,000 votes in Ohio, but the Democrats argued that provisional ballots that had yet to be counted. In the afternoon Ohio's Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell, announced that it was statistically impossible for the Democrats to make up enough valid votes in the provisional ballots to win. At the time provisional ballots were reported as numbering 140,000 (and later estimated to be only 135,000). Faced with this announcement, John Kerry conceded defeat.
On election day Bush received 62,040,610 popular votes (50.7%) compared to Kerry's 59,028,444 (48.3%). Bush won 286 electoral votes, while Kerry won 251. Bush carried 31 states, to 19 (plus the District of Columbia) for Kerry. Bush's margin of victory in the popular vote was the smallest ever for a reelected incumbent president. The electoral map closely resembled that of 2000, with only three states changing sides: New Mexico and Iowa voted Republican in 2004 after having voted Democratic in 2000, while New Hampshire voted Democratic in 2004 after previously voting Republican.
With national security as an important issue in the campaign, the Democratic Party soon discarded the initial front-runner, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, in favor of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran who later became a strong critic of that war. Dean had gained popularity for being one of the few Democrats who was consistent in his opposition to the war in Iraq. But in one of the early examples of the cruelty of social media, Dean was mocked for what was termed "the scream". Kerry did unexpectedly well in the Iowa caucuses while Dean slipped to third place. In a speech Dean gave at a post-caucus rally, he was shouting over the cheers of his enthusiastic audience. The media replayed his emotional ewhich came to be known as the "Dean Scream", which led to a debate on whether Dean was the victim of media bias.
Kerry went on to win the nomination and selected North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate. The Kerry/Edwards ticket unveiled their new slogan-a promise to make America "stronger at home and more respected in the world." Kerry made his Vietnam War experience the prominent theme of the convention. In accepting the nomination, he began his speech with, "I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty."
Bush framed his campaign around the issue of national security, presenting himself as a decisive leader. His spin doctors contrasted Bush with Kerry, and labeled the latter as a "flip-flopper." The intention was to have voters believe that Bush could be trusted to be tough on terrorism while Kerry would be uncertain in the face of danger. The Bush campaign also tried to portray Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal", who was out of touch with mainstream Americans. Kerry campaigned on the slogan "Stronger at home, respected in the world," meaning that he intended to pay more attention to domestic concerns, while rehabilitating the nation's image among its allies, which was damaged after Bush decided to proceed against Iraq unilaterally, without United Nations support or the support of many of America's allies. Kerry attempted to capitalize on Bush's dwindling popularity to rally anti-war sentiment. His campaign also sought to portray Bush as unintelligent.
Kerry's campaign also attacked Bush's character and events from his past. Bush was accused of failing to fulfill his required service in the Texas Air National Guard. But soon the focus shifted to the conduct of CBS News after they aired a segment on 60 Minutes Wednesday, introducing what became known as the Killian documents. When it was alleged that these documents were not authentic, CBS appointed a review panel that eventually resulted in the firing of the news producer and the demotion of anchor Dan Rather.
Kerry was attacked by a group known as the Swift Boat Vets and POWs for Truth, who accused him of exaggerating claims about his own service in Vietnam, and his deliberate misrepresentation of the nature and effectiveness of Swift boat operations. The group challenged the legitimacy of each of the combat medals awarded to Kerry by the U.S. Navy, and the disposition of his discharge.
A successful Republican National Convention showed Bush with a comfortable lead over Kerry. A post-convention Gallup poll showed the President leading his opponent by 14 points. But soon this lead eroded because of poor debate performance by Bush. In the first debate, held on September 30 at the University of Miami and moderated by Jim Lehrer of PBS, Kerry accused Bush of having failed to gain international support for the 2003 Invasion of Iraq. The consensus was that Kerry won the debate decisively, giving his campaign momentum. Bush's performance was somewhat better at the second debate, held at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, on October 8, moderated by Charles Gibson of ABC and conducted in a town meeting format. The third and final debate was held at Arizona State University on October 13.
An "October surprise" in that election campaign took place on October 27, 2004. At this point in time Osama bin Laden, the terrorist responsible for the September 11th attacks, was still at large. Bin Laden released a video in which he claimed responsibility for the 9/11 attacks and called President Bush a dictator who repressed freedom by means of the Patriot Act. The release of the video worked to Bush's advantage, as he was perceived by more voters to be the candidate better able to deal with the issue of terrorist attacks. The video reignited public interest in national security. By targeting Bush for criticism, Bin Laden cast him in the role of his enemy, causing many voters to support their President. In the days following the video's release, Bush's lead over Kerry in the polls increased by several points.
The election turned on three "swing states": Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida which were seen as evenly divided. As the final results came in, Kerry took Pennsylvania and then Bush took Florida, focusing all attention on Ohio. The morning after the election, it was clear that the result in Ohio, along with two other states who had still not declared (New Mexico and Iowa), would decide the winner. Bush had established a lead of around 130,000 votes in Ohio, but the Democrats argued that provisional ballots that had yet to be counted. In the afternoon Ohio's Secretary of State, Ken Blackwell, announced that it was statistically impossible for the Democrats to make up enough valid votes in the provisional ballots to win. At the time provisional ballots were reported as numbering 140,000 (and later estimated to be only 135,000). Faced with this announcement, John Kerry conceded defeat.
On election day Bush received 62,040,610 popular votes (50.7%) compared to Kerry's 59,028,444 (48.3%). Bush won 286 electoral votes, while Kerry won 251. Bush carried 31 states, to 19 (plus the District of Columbia) for Kerry. Bush's margin of victory in the popular vote was the smallest ever for a reelected incumbent president. The electoral map closely resembled that of 2000, with only three states changing sides: New Mexico and Iowa voted Republican in 2004 after having voted Democratic in 2000, while New Hampshire voted Democratic in 2004 after previously voting Republican.