Four More Years: George H. W. Bush
In 1991, George H. W. Bush enjoyed an approval rating at an unprecedented 89%. It seemed unthinkable at the time the Bush would not win four more years in office the following year. But political popularity can be fickle and after the next presidential election, the nation found itself with a new President. How did that happen? Did anyone see it coming? In his book The Keys to the White House, Professor Alan J. Lichtman lists the presence of a strong third party candidate as one of the factors predictive of the defeat of the incumbent party. A good example of this can be seen in the Presidential Election of 1992 in which a little-known Governor from a southern state was able to upset a popular sitting President with the help of a billionaire third party candidate.
The election of 1992 had three major candidates: incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush; Democratic Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, and independent Texas businessman Ross Perot.
Just a year previously, in the spring of 1991, Bush was enjoying his unprecedented 89% approval rating, fresh from a victory in the Gulf War and the rapid defeat of Iraq. But in the intervening months, Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes. The economy was in a recession, and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the end of the Gulf War.
Bush faced modest opposition for his party's nomination in the form of Conservative journalist Pat Buchanan. Buchanan's best showing was in the New Hampshire primary on February 18, 1992, which Bush won by a 53-38% margin. President Bush won 73% of all primary votes. President George H. W. Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle easily won renomination by the Republican Party. However, the success of the conservative opposition forced the moderate Bush to move further to the right than in 1988, and to incorporate many socially conservative planks in the party platform.
For the Democrats, many of their proposed leading candidates took a pass on the race because the believed the popular Bush to be unbeatable. Several high profile candidates such as New York Governor Mario Cuomo refused to seek the Democratic nomination. Tennessee Senator Al Gore refused to seek the nomination because his son had recently been struck by a car and was undergoing extensive surgery as well as physical therapy. The Democratic field was populated by candidates such as Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, Bob Kerrey, Douglas Wilder and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.
Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran as a populist liberal with labor union support. Former U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts highlighted his political independence and fiscal conservatism. Former California Governor Jerry Brown, who had run for the Democratic nomination in 1976 and 1980 while he was still Governor, ran on a reform agenda, advocation Congressional term limits, campaign finance reform, and the adoption of a flat income tax. Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey made several gaffes on the campaign trail. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton positioned himself as a centrist. He was still relatively unknown nationally but that quickly changed when a woman named Gennifer Flowers appeared in the press to reveal allegations of an affair. Clinton confronted the story by appearing on 60 Minutes with his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
In the primaries, Harkin won his native Iowa as expected. Tsongas won the New Hampshire primary on February 18 but Clinton finished in second place, and he followed with a speech labeling himself "The Comeback Kid." Brown won the Maine caucus and Kerrey won South Dakota. Clinton won his first primary in Georgia. Tsongas won in Utah, Maryland and Washington. Harkin won caucuses in Idaho and Minnesota while Jerry Brown won Colorado. Bob Kerrey dropped out two days later. Clinton won the South Carolina and Wyoming primaries and Tsongas won Arizona. Harkin dropped out. Jerry Brown won the Nevada caucus. Clinton swept nearly all of the Super Tuesday primaries on March 10 making him the solid front runner. Clinton won the Michigan and Illinois primaries. Tsongas dropped out after finishing 3rd in Michigan. Jerry Brown began to pick up steam with surprising wins in Connecticut, Vermont and Alaska. As the race moved to the primaries in New York and Wisconsin, Brown had taken the lead in polls in both states. Then he made a serious gaffe by announcing to an audience of New York City's Jewish community that, if nominated, he would consider Reverend Jesse Jackson as a Vice Presidential candidate. Clinton won dramatically in New York (41%-26%) and closely in Wisconsin (37%-34%). Clinton then proceeded to win a long streak of primaries leading up to Jerry Brown's home state of California. Clinton won this primary 48% to 41% and secured the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
The independent candidacy of billionaire Texan Ross Perot caused a stir. At one point Perot was leading the major party candidates in the polls. Perot crusaded against the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), internal and external national debt, tapping into voters' potential fear of the deficit. His volunteers succeeded in collecting enough signatures to get his name on the ballot in all 50 states. In June, Perot led the national public opinion polls with support from 39% of the voters (versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton). Perot severely damaged his campaign by dropping out of the presidential contest in July and remaining out of the race for several weeks before re-entering. Perot said that he was concerned that staying in the race with a "revitalized Democratic Party" would cause the race to be decided by the United States House of Representatives.
As the economy continued to grow sour, Democrats began to rally around their nominee. The Clinton campaign received the biggest convention "bounce" in history, going from 25 percent in the spring, behind Bush and Perot, to 55 percent versus Bush's 31 percent after the convention. Clinton and Gore began a bus tour around the United States, while the Bush/Quayle campaign adopted a strategy of attacks on Clinton's character, highlighting accusations of infidelity and draft dodging. Bush contrasted his military service to Clinton's lack thereof, and criticized Clinton's lack of foreign policy expertise. But the economy was the main issue of interest to voters and Bush's campaign floundered, even in strongly Republican areas. One of Clinton's slogans was "it's the economy, stupid", which intended to portray Bush as out of touch with the economic struggles of ordinary Americans. As Bush's economic edge had evaporated, his campaign looked to energize its socially conservative base at the 1992 Republican National Convention in Houston, Texas. Bush saw a small post-convention bounce in the polls, but this was short lived.
Initially, Perot's return saw the Texas billionaire's numbers stay low, until he was given the opportunity to participate in a trio of unprecedented three-man debates. The race narrowed, as Perot's numbers significantly improved as Clinton's numbers declined, while Bush's numbers remained more or less the same. Perot and Bush began to hammer at Clinton on character issues. These included allegations that Clinton had dodged the draft during the Vietnam War, and had used marijuana. Clinton famously claimed that he had pretended to smoke, but "didn't inhale."
On November 3, Bill Clinton won the election by a wide margin in the Electoral College, receiving 43 percent of the popular vote against Bush's 37 percent and Perot's 19%. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the White House with under 50 percent of the popular vote. Only Washington, D.C. and Clinton's home state of Arkansas gave the majority of their votes to a single candidate in the entire country. The rest were won by pluralities of the vote.
President Bush's 37.4% was the lowest percentage total for a sitting president seeking re-election since William Howard Taft in 1912 (23.2%). Clinton won 370 electoral votes compared to 168 for Bush.
Perot received 19,741,065 votes or 18.9 percent of the popular vote for President. He used his own money to advertise extensively, and is the only third-party candidate ever allowed into the nationally televised presidential debates with both major party candidates. Perot was the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. Perot's 19% of the popular vote was the highest ever percent of the popular vote for a candidate who did not win any electoral votes. Perot managed to finish ahead of one of the two major party candidates in two states: In Maine, Perot received 30.44% of the vote to Bush's 30.39% (Clinton won Maine with 38.77%); in Utah, Perot received 27.34% of the vote to Clinton's 24.65% (Bush won Utah with 43.36%).
The election of 1992 had three major candidates: incumbent Republican President George H. W. Bush; Democratic Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, and independent Texas businessman Ross Perot.
Just a year previously, in the spring of 1991, Bush was enjoying his unprecedented 89% approval rating, fresh from a victory in the Gulf War and the rapid defeat of Iraq. But in the intervening months, Bush had alienated much of his conservative base by breaking his 1988 campaign pledge against raising taxes. The economy was in a recession, and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, was regarded as much less important following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the relatively peaceful climate in the Middle East after the end of the Gulf War.
Bush faced modest opposition for his party's nomination in the form of Conservative journalist Pat Buchanan. Buchanan's best showing was in the New Hampshire primary on February 18, 1992, which Bush won by a 53-38% margin. President Bush won 73% of all primary votes. President George H. W. Bush and Vice President Dan Quayle easily won renomination by the Republican Party. However, the success of the conservative opposition forced the moderate Bush to move further to the right than in 1988, and to incorporate many socially conservative planks in the party platform.
For the Democrats, many of their proposed leading candidates took a pass on the race because the believed the popular Bush to be unbeatable. Several high profile candidates such as New York Governor Mario Cuomo refused to seek the Democratic nomination. Tennessee Senator Al Gore refused to seek the nomination because his son had recently been struck by a car and was undergoing extensive surgery as well as physical therapy. The Democratic field was populated by candidates such as Tom Harkin, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, Bob Kerrey, Douglas Wilder and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.
Iowa Senator Tom Harkin ran as a populist liberal with labor union support. Former U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts highlighted his political independence and fiscal conservatism. Former California Governor Jerry Brown, who had run for the Democratic nomination in 1976 and 1980 while he was still Governor, ran on a reform agenda, advocation Congressional term limits, campaign finance reform, and the adoption of a flat income tax. Nebraska Senator Bob Kerrey made several gaffes on the campaign trail. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton positioned himself as a centrist. He was still relatively unknown nationally but that quickly changed when a woman named Gennifer Flowers appeared in the press to reveal allegations of an affair. Clinton confronted the story by appearing on 60 Minutes with his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
In the primaries, Harkin won his native Iowa as expected. Tsongas won the New Hampshire primary on February 18 but Clinton finished in second place, and he followed with a speech labeling himself "The Comeback Kid." Brown won the Maine caucus and Kerrey won South Dakota. Clinton won his first primary in Georgia. Tsongas won in Utah, Maryland and Washington. Harkin won caucuses in Idaho and Minnesota while Jerry Brown won Colorado. Bob Kerrey dropped out two days later. Clinton won the South Carolina and Wyoming primaries and Tsongas won Arizona. Harkin dropped out. Jerry Brown won the Nevada caucus. Clinton swept nearly all of the Super Tuesday primaries on March 10 making him the solid front runner. Clinton won the Michigan and Illinois primaries. Tsongas dropped out after finishing 3rd in Michigan. Jerry Brown began to pick up steam with surprising wins in Connecticut, Vermont and Alaska. As the race moved to the primaries in New York and Wisconsin, Brown had taken the lead in polls in both states. Then he made a serious gaffe by announcing to an audience of New York City's Jewish community that, if nominated, he would consider Reverend Jesse Jackson as a Vice Presidential candidate. Clinton won dramatically in New York (41%-26%) and closely in Wisconsin (37%-34%). Clinton then proceeded to win a long streak of primaries leading up to Jerry Brown's home state of California. Clinton won this primary 48% to 41% and secured the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.
The independent candidacy of billionaire Texan Ross Perot caused a stir. At one point Perot was leading the major party candidates in the polls. Perot crusaded against the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), internal and external national debt, tapping into voters' potential fear of the deficit. His volunteers succeeded in collecting enough signatures to get his name on the ballot in all 50 states. In June, Perot led the national public opinion polls with support from 39% of the voters (versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton). Perot severely damaged his campaign by dropping out of the presidential contest in July and remaining out of the race for several weeks before re-entering. Perot said that he was concerned that staying in the race with a "revitalized Democratic Party" would cause the race to be decided by the United States House of Representatives.
As the economy continued to grow sour, Democrats began to rally around their nominee. The Clinton campaign received the biggest convention "bounce" in history, going from 25 percent in the spring, behind Bush and Perot, to 55 percent versus Bush's 31 percent after the convention. Clinton and Gore began a bus tour around the United States, while the Bush/Quayle campaign adopted a strategy of attacks on Clinton's character, highlighting accusations of infidelity and draft dodging. Bush contrasted his military service to Clinton's lack thereof, and criticized Clinton's lack of foreign policy expertise. But the economy was the main issue of interest to voters and Bush's campaign floundered, even in strongly Republican areas. One of Clinton's slogans was "it's the economy, stupid", which intended to portray Bush as out of touch with the economic struggles of ordinary Americans. As Bush's economic edge had evaporated, his campaign looked to energize its socially conservative base at the 1992 Republican National Convention in Houston, Texas. Bush saw a small post-convention bounce in the polls, but this was short lived.
Initially, Perot's return saw the Texas billionaire's numbers stay low, until he was given the opportunity to participate in a trio of unprecedented three-man debates. The race narrowed, as Perot's numbers significantly improved as Clinton's numbers declined, while Bush's numbers remained more or less the same. Perot and Bush began to hammer at Clinton on character issues. These included allegations that Clinton had dodged the draft during the Vietnam War, and had used marijuana. Clinton famously claimed that he had pretended to smoke, but "didn't inhale."
On November 3, Bill Clinton won the election by a wide margin in the Electoral College, receiving 43 percent of the popular vote against Bush's 37 percent and Perot's 19%. It was the first time since 1968 that a candidate won the White House with under 50 percent of the popular vote. Only Washington, D.C. and Clinton's home state of Arkansas gave the majority of their votes to a single candidate in the entire country. The rest were won by pluralities of the vote.
President Bush's 37.4% was the lowest percentage total for a sitting president seeking re-election since William Howard Taft in 1912 (23.2%). Clinton won 370 electoral votes compared to 168 for Bush.
Perot received 19,741,065 votes or 18.9 percent of the popular vote for President. He used his own money to advertise extensively, and is the only third-party candidate ever allowed into the nationally televised presidential debates with both major party candidates. Perot was the most successful third-party presidential candidate in terms of popular vote since Theodore Roosevelt in the 1912 election. Perot's 19% of the popular vote was the highest ever percent of the popular vote for a candidate who did not win any electoral votes. Perot managed to finish ahead of one of the two major party candidates in two states: In Maine, Perot received 30.44% of the vote to Bush's 30.39% (Clinton won Maine with 38.77%); in Utah, Perot received 27.34% of the vote to Clinton's 24.65% (Bush won Utah with 43.36%).