October Surprises: Ford vs. Carter (1976)
In 1976 the odds were stacked against Gerald Ford in his bid to be elected as President of the United States in his own right. Ford had become President following the resignation of Richard Nixon on August 9, 1974. At first there was considerable public support for Ford, who was perceived as an honest breath of fresh air after the many transgressions of Nixon's administration were exposed. But when Ford pardoned Nixon on September 8, his approval rating dropped significantly and many assumed that a corrupt bargain had been struck between the two Republicans.
Things didn't get any easier for Ford as the 1976 election approached. He fended off a serious challenge for his party's nomination by former California Governor Ronald Reagan. It looked like the election would be a cake walk for the Democrats, who nominated Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter as their candidate. Carter campaigned on being a Washington outsider who promised to restore honor and integrity to the White House.
The election would turn out to be much closer than anticipated. Ford took advantage of the fact that 1976 was the United States Bicentennial. Ford received a lot of positive national media coverage in connection with bicentennial events, including the Washington, D.C. fireworks display, held on the Fourth of July. The event was presided over by Ford and was televised nationally. Three days later, on July 7, 1976, the president and First Lady hosted a White House state dinner for Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip, which was televised nationally on the PBS network. Ford's strategy was for him to appear presidential, rather than a politician who was running for office. He did not actively campaign until October of that year.
Carter campaigned as a reformer who was unsullied by any political scandal. This appealed to many voters, following the Watergate scandal that had led to Nixon's resignation. Although Ford was personally unconnected with Watergate, his pardon of Nixon had caused his popularity to plummet. Ford's refusal to explain his reasons for pardoning Nixon at the time did not help matters.
After the Democratic National Convention, Carter held a 33-point lead over Ford in the polls. But as the campaign continued, the race became much closer. During the campaign Playboy magazine published a controversial interview with Carter in which Carter admitted to having "lusted in my heart" for women other than his wife. This remark cut into Carter's support among women and evangelical Christians. Then on September 23, Ford performed well in what was the first presidential debate, the first to be televised nationally since 1960. Polls taken after the debate showed that most viewers felt that Ford had won the debate. Carter was also hurt by Ford's charges that he lacked the necessary experience to be an effective national leader, and that Carter was vague on many issues.
But it was an October blunder that halted Ford's momentum. During the second presidential debate on October 6, Ford said, in answer to a question, "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration." He also said that he did not that the people of Poland "consider themselves dominated by the Soviet Union." He made the same claim about the people of Yugoslavia and Romania. Ford refused to retract his statement for almost a week after the debate. Voters perceived this a either a lack of understanding or a denial of the true state of world affairs. As a result his surge in the polls stalled and Carter was able to maintain a slight lead in the polls.
Then, at a vice-presidential debate, the first ever formal one of its kind, between Bob Dole and Walter Mondale, Ford's running mate Bob Dole committed another gaffe. Dole claimed that military unpreparedness on the part of Democratic presidents was responsible for all of the wars the U.S. had fought in the 20th century. Dole, who was a World War II veteran, said that in every 20th-century war from World War I to the Vietnam War, a Democrat had been President. Dole then pointed out that the number of U.S. casualties in "Democrat wars" was roughly equal to the population of Detroit. Many voters felt that Dole's criticism was disingenuous and unfair. Dole would remark that he regretted the comment and that it hurt the Republican ticket.
In the closing days of the campaign, Ford made a series of popular television appearances with Joe Garagiola, Sr., a retired baseball player for the St. Louis Cardinals and a well-known announcer for NBC Sports. Garagiola and Ford appeared in a number of shows in several large cities. During the show Garagiola would ask Ford questions about his life and beliefs. Television critics called these appearances the "Joe and Jerry Show." These appearances were very well received and seemed to help Ford as election day approached.
Ford managed to close the remaining gap in the polls and by election day the race was judged to be even. Election day was November 2, and it took most of that night and the following morning to determine the winner. It wasn't until 3:30 am EST, that NBC declared that Carter had carried Mississippi, giving him more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Carter defeated Ford by two percentage points in the national popular vote. The electoral vote was the closest since 1916. Carter carried 23 states with 297 electoral votes, while Ford won 27 states and 240 electoral votes. (One "faithless elector" from Washington state, was pledged to Ford, but voted for Reagan). Carter's victory was due in large measure to his near-sweep of the South. (He lost only Virginia and Oklahoma.) Carter also eked out narrow victories in New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Ford did well in the West, carrying every state except Hawaii. The most tightly contested state in the election was Oregon, which Ford won by 1,713 votes.
Things didn't get any easier for Ford as the 1976 election approached. He fended off a serious challenge for his party's nomination by former California Governor Ronald Reagan. It looked like the election would be a cake walk for the Democrats, who nominated Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter as their candidate. Carter campaigned on being a Washington outsider who promised to restore honor and integrity to the White House.
The election would turn out to be much closer than anticipated. Ford took advantage of the fact that 1976 was the United States Bicentennial. Ford received a lot of positive national media coverage in connection with bicentennial events, including the Washington, D.C. fireworks display, held on the Fourth of July. The event was presided over by Ford and was televised nationally. Three days later, on July 7, 1976, the president and First Lady hosted a White House state dinner for Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip, which was televised nationally on the PBS network. Ford's strategy was for him to appear presidential, rather than a politician who was running for office. He did not actively campaign until October of that year.
Carter campaigned as a reformer who was unsullied by any political scandal. This appealed to many voters, following the Watergate scandal that had led to Nixon's resignation. Although Ford was personally unconnected with Watergate, his pardon of Nixon had caused his popularity to plummet. Ford's refusal to explain his reasons for pardoning Nixon at the time did not help matters.
After the Democratic National Convention, Carter held a 33-point lead over Ford in the polls. But as the campaign continued, the race became much closer. During the campaign Playboy magazine published a controversial interview with Carter in which Carter admitted to having "lusted in my heart" for women other than his wife. This remark cut into Carter's support among women and evangelical Christians. Then on September 23, Ford performed well in what was the first presidential debate, the first to be televised nationally since 1960. Polls taken after the debate showed that most viewers felt that Ford had won the debate. Carter was also hurt by Ford's charges that he lacked the necessary experience to be an effective national leader, and that Carter was vague on many issues.
But it was an October blunder that halted Ford's momentum. During the second presidential debate on October 6, Ford said, in answer to a question, "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration." He also said that he did not that the people of Poland "consider themselves dominated by the Soviet Union." He made the same claim about the people of Yugoslavia and Romania. Ford refused to retract his statement for almost a week after the debate. Voters perceived this a either a lack of understanding or a denial of the true state of world affairs. As a result his surge in the polls stalled and Carter was able to maintain a slight lead in the polls.
Then, at a vice-presidential debate, the first ever formal one of its kind, between Bob Dole and Walter Mondale, Ford's running mate Bob Dole committed another gaffe. Dole claimed that military unpreparedness on the part of Democratic presidents was responsible for all of the wars the U.S. had fought in the 20th century. Dole, who was a World War II veteran, said that in every 20th-century war from World War I to the Vietnam War, a Democrat had been President. Dole then pointed out that the number of U.S. casualties in "Democrat wars" was roughly equal to the population of Detroit. Many voters felt that Dole's criticism was disingenuous and unfair. Dole would remark that he regretted the comment and that it hurt the Republican ticket.
In the closing days of the campaign, Ford made a series of popular television appearances with Joe Garagiola, Sr., a retired baseball player for the St. Louis Cardinals and a well-known announcer for NBC Sports. Garagiola and Ford appeared in a number of shows in several large cities. During the show Garagiola would ask Ford questions about his life and beliefs. Television critics called these appearances the "Joe and Jerry Show." These appearances were very well received and seemed to help Ford as election day approached.
Ford managed to close the remaining gap in the polls and by election day the race was judged to be even. Election day was November 2, and it took most of that night and the following morning to determine the winner. It wasn't until 3:30 am EST, that NBC declared that Carter had carried Mississippi, giving him more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Carter defeated Ford by two percentage points in the national popular vote. The electoral vote was the closest since 1916. Carter carried 23 states with 297 electoral votes, while Ford won 27 states and 240 electoral votes. (One "faithless elector" from Washington state, was pledged to Ford, but voted for Reagan). Carter's victory was due in large measure to his near-sweep of the South. (He lost only Virginia and Oklahoma.) Carter also eked out narrow victories in New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Ford did well in the West, carrying every state except Hawaii. The most tightly contested state in the election was Oregon, which Ford won by 1,713 votes.