A volcano of oil erupting
May 13, 8:11 AM
Breakthrough Energy Examiner
Sterling Allan
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-8199-Breakthrough-Energy-Examiner~y2010m5d13-A-volcano-of-oil-erupting
The following article was written by my associate, by Paul Noel with some editing and input from me.
New video showing largest hole from pipe 5 feet in diameter spewing oil and natural gas at ~4 barrels per second, along with analysis of the amount of oil on the surface, supports the estimates closer to 1 million barrels per day erupting from this hole BP popped in the ocean floor that contains trillions of barrels of oil and natural gas.
Mainstream reports are starting to discuss the fact that the oil slick rising from the oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico simply has to be a whole lot larger than first reported.
My first report on this stated that the total could easily be 5,000 barrels per day. I said this when the report was that only 1,000 barrels per day was the stated total. I was being cautious because I knew the total was much higher and I knew the public would not believe the real totals. Most people simply could not imagine a well of the size involved.
Now I will discuss the real facts that are known and what the educated guesses on the topic indicate. Prepare to get your jaw off of the floor. The facts are stunning.
Pre-Drilling Estimates and Assurances
BP estimated a spill of 165,000 barrels per day would not even reach land! That is what they told the US Government before they drilled the well. They had excellent science on their side, which you can begin to comprehend when you understand how oil reacts in salt water, as we will briefly discuss below.
The fact that the spill has reached land clearly states that the size of the spill is probably well above 200,000 barrels per day. Yes, that's BARRELS, not gallons. There are 42 gallons per barrel.
To get a full estimate we have to look at the process of sinking an oil slick and count money. A newly released video of the larger of the two leaks also contributes to our understanding of a minimum estimate of the flow erupting from this man-induced volcano of oil.
When An Oil Spill Originates on the Surface
Here is what happens when oil hits the salt water. If it is poured on top of the sea, oil begins to do several things. First some of it dissolves in the salt water. This dissolving is a bit limited but amounts to several percent per day of the spill exposure to the ocean. Some of the oil evaporates. This is several percent per day. This slows over time. As the oil dissolves and evaporates the parts that do this are primarily volatile fractions. These are things like Gasoline and other light components that go away pretty quickly. Once these are gone the remaining oil is heavy fraction crude. This begins to sink into the water very slowly, eventually falling to the ocean bottom over about 6 weeks. Typically this floats into an area where the shoreline is and embeds about 18 inches deep in the sand. This buried oil is not harmless. Just because the beach might appear on the surface to be clear, the sub-surface oil continues its toxic work. It locates precisely where the little sea creatures live, and it goes on killing them for about 10 years.
The reason a slick would carry farther than predicted is that the salt water is saturated with oil and the air around it is saturated, so the slick cannot dissipate. In the case of the BP Gulf leak, the size of the slick and the location of on shore oil say this slick represents at least 2 times the amount of oil BP estimated would never reach land -- or 330,000 barrels per day, minimum. This is an educated guess, borne out by aerial photos and the like.
When Oil Shoots Up Through 5000 Feet of Salt Water -- Fractionating Column
In the case of the BP underwater hole, the slick is not being poured on top of the water. It is coming up from the ocean bottom that is 1 mile deep at that point. That fact raises stunning questions on how big the well releases are.
Rising through 5000 feet of water, the oil is going through a process that the oil men call Fractionating. Literally the tremendous pressure and temperature issue are the equivalent of taking the oil and boiling it in a cracking tower 5000 feet high. The oil and Natural Gas change on their way up. The very light, easy-to-evaporate parts are all that is rising to the surface.
The heavy oil isn’t even getting to the top. That oil is losing its volatile fractions and is being dragged along with the rising column into the surface water where it is probably distributing as tar balls that are not being skimmed up or burned or otherwise dispersed.
In fact the chemicals added at the well head to disburse the oil, speed this process up. This oil is mixed into the water for the top 250 feet or so. Salinity and temperature issues probably keep this oil from ever reaching the very top of the water. The exact behavior here will not be known until studies are published some years from now. This is the first time humans have encountered a deep ocean leak of this magnitude. We're in uncharted territory here. Volume per volume, it is highly probable that due to this fractioning, this oil blowing into the ocean from a mile down is causing far more ecological trouble than a surface spill of similar size.
It is also certain that the slick volume on the surface is substantially lower than the rising column of oil. This is a key point to bear in mind. Because of this fractioning, what you see from the air on the surface of the water represents maybe just 20% of the volume of the various types of oil in that area. And we're talking an area the size of Maryland (10,000+ square miles) that is on the surface. The remaining 80% is under the surface; and all of it is highly toxic to the living organisms encountered.
All of this brings into serious question the volumes of oil rising. Every factor suggests massively higher numbers than what has been commonly reported.
Video of Slick
Here is a video that Alabama resident John Wathen shot as a volunteer pilot flew him over the area where the Deepwater Horizon oil rig sank. He said, "It's not a leak, it's a volcano spewing oil."
As we watch this, and see other photos and videos from the air and ground/sea level, we can agree with Wathen's comment: "The Gulf appears to be bleeding," which is chilling, considering the prophecy in Revelation 8:8: "The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze [appearance of the burning rig and slick], was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed." Most ships cannot travel through oil-infested waters without damage, any more than jets can fly through volcanic ash-infested airways.
Budgeting an Oil Rig
There is also another factor that says that the numbers are vastly higher than published to date. That is money. The BP investment in this well is very high -- close to a billion dollars. They must earn over $5,000,000 a day off of the well in order to pay back their investment. (That was before the explosion, and doesn't count the cleanup costs, etc)
They were, until the well blew, extremely happy with the well. In fact, on the day of the explosions, executives were on board celebrating the well's success.
This well had to produce over 60,000 barrels per day in order to break even. Shocking as it seems, this well would have been closed in and disposed of had it produced a minor total like 20,000 barrels per day. That would have been a “Dry Hole”! It wouldn’t have paid for the pipes to bring the oil to market. The fact that BP management was aboard the rig and very happy, celebrating, just prior to the explosion says the well probably produces more than 200,000 barrels per day. It might well have produced 500,000 or more. Royalties to the US Government multiply the numbers for break even by about 2:1 so 500,000 barrels per day is very realistic. And that is what they would have been celebrating while things were under control.
With this in mind, remember that this well is running wild. A wild well produces far more than a well during normal production. This is why it is so dangerous. The conclusions for how much is coming up are simply unbelievable.
Natural Gas
The Natural Gas emissions are stunning as well. As you watch the film remember the pipe is 5 feet in diameter.
The Natural Gas doesn't just bubble to the top of the ocean and release into the air. It is absorbed into the water, like air is absorbed, and actually creates oxygen depletion. Hence, the emission of natural gas of these volumes into the sea is producing a significant area of Oxygen depleted water in the Gulf of Mexico which may be very large threat to fisheries and other wildlife in the area.
Never forget this point. The spill was “Impossible” by the view of the oil men prior to this. The biggest cost of the spill cleanup is being borne by the US Armed Forces such as the National Guard etc. None of these costs will ever be paid by BP. These costs will appear in taxes not in the price of oil. Alternative Oil is vastly cheaper and safer than this.
Video from Largest Leak
Having just seen (as I write) the film of the larger of the two leaks under sea, I can say with my trained eye that the volume coming out of the hole is in the order of 4 barrels per second (around 350,000 barrels per day).
As you look at this, it might seem like a small hole, and a small amount of oil. But bear in mind that the diameter of the pipe is 5 feet -- five feet wide! Those deep sea drilling rigs don't make small diameter holes like you might be used to seeing on land. Some of those huge drilling rigs, which make an aircraft carrier look like a toy boat in comparison, put down huge pipe. The rig that is on site now, Development-Driller-III, which is drilling a relief hole to reduce pressure from the hole dug by Deepwater Horizon, has a torque (drill twisting) rating of 78,450 ft-lbs. You who know torque will appreciate how huge that is. Yes, the hole opening is 5 feet in diameter, spewing approximately 4 barrels each second.
What Could Yet Come
This is not a system in stasis. This is an out of control volcano of oil spewing up with 70,000 psi behind it, from a reservoir nearly the size of the Gulf, with an estimated trillions of barrels of oil and gas tucked away. It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas.
What we are seeing now could be small compared to what may yet unfold if things break apart, as they can do under such circumstances. If this thing blew, it could be like the Yellowstone Caldera, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it.
That would be an extinction event.
It is not likely to happen, but it is within the realm of possibilities.
That's the kind of stuff we're playing with here.
When we humans go tinkering around with this stuff, it is like the movie of men flying space ships to asteroids and setting off nuclear bombs to deflect them from hitting earth. Except in this case, setting off a nuclear bomb on top of a veritable volcano spewing oil from what is presently a relatively small hole in order to shut if off, doesn't seem like a very good idea.
Postscript
There is no way to get the size of this in mind. It is just too big to imagine. The slick is now as large as Maryland and growing. It will grow probably for 90 days or more. Even if contained tomorrow it will set the record for biggest in history.
Here is a fairly safe estimate of the economic damage to tourism, fisheries and the like in 3 US states. (AL, MS, LA) Over the next 10 years this will cost about $1 Trillion Dollars. BP will not pay this. This does not count damage to ports and trade generally. There is no way out now. What do Texas and Florida get? How about the east US Coast or even parts of Mexico? Does this go all the way damaging England and the northern EU? It certainly will not stop with just 3 states.
Imagine how much alternative energy work that would have produced. Now it is all waste. Now we must do it while it is hard. Imagine how easy it would have been a year or two ago when it was argued it was too expensive.
We have to turn around from this way and never look back. Freedom, prosperity and happiness will not be found in that eruption of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.
Some might think that I am against the oil industry. Actually I view them [rig workers, not execs] as some of the bravest most heroic people we have ever seen on earth. I have to say this plainly. I am in awe of many of the things they accomplish.
I just know that we must get a brighter future. This one has no hope.
Epilogue
The Transocean rig drilling right now to relieve the well is drilling a 28 inch well ASAP. The just spudded in the well and are already a mile down. (Ref.)
They are trying a smaller well to go fast. It isn't 21 inches per the report you are hearing from others. The numbers on the Transocean rig are for the drill pipe size. The inside hole of the drill pipe is 18 inches and the outside is 21. The platform numbers are for a 60.5 inch drill platform opening. This is what fits the outer casing. It is used to torque the casing down into the well. The platform is used at the turntable to torque the well drill pipe.
I have seen lots of these wells. They are really 5 feet in diameter. It sort of shakes you up to see something that big.
http://www.gulf-shores-alabama.net/gulf-mexico-mobile-ferry-dauphin-island.html
You want to see some look at the pictures. That platform I have been right there around it several times. The ferry is fun. Everything I described is on the Gulf High Island 2 rig and some associated production platforms. This is very old technology dating from the late 1970's and early 1980's. The oilfield service launch here is 250 feet long and looks like a tub toy next to the rigs. (in the pictures for the ferry) I have similar pictures. The field came into production about 1992 or so. I have been around the launch and where it docks.
They drill these wells often decades before they use them.
We have about 9,000 square miles of oil out there. My only question to doubters is how big of a house has to fall on you. The stuff is really big out there. When one compares this to Exxon Valdez it is important to understand that this is an open water spill with wave action to disrupt it. The water temperature is in the 80 degree range causing much more rapid degrading of the oil than in Prince William Sound. There have been massive efforts using disbursant compounds in this spill. There are many many factors that are different. This is light crude rather than heavy crude. It reacts quite differently.
The real question should be why people want to believe so low numbers. A spill of 10,000 Gallons is 328 barrels and is just one tanker delivery truck. Your local gasoline station can drain one dry in a few minutes with gravity. They claimed the spill was equal to 3 of these early on. You could have lost that much oil in a few waves out there. Increasing that to 15 a day still is so trivial that it would have been of no concern. You could stop up such a leak with nothing. It wouldn't be anything to stop a leak of 5,000 barrels a day. That is a trivial oil well size. 5,000 barrels a day is about equal to spilling one tanker truck every hour and 15 minutes. That would be a simple chore to shut off. Please get your head on here. Your local gasoline station unloads a tanker truck at about 5 times that rate. River barges hold like 5,000 barrels of oil. Sink one and it makes a modest slick in the Mississippi river.
Spilling that much crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico off shore like this would never even come to mind at 5,000 barrels per day. BP was entirely right in their report to the Minerals Management Service that 165,000 Barrels Per day would never even reach land. This slick is coming ashore now. The well is belching about 300,000 barrels to 400,000 barrels per day. That is beyond doubt.
The reason there was no safety plan has many reasons but one of these was the company figured it was impossible to bring ashore a slick from that far away. The Gulf of Mexico is vast. It soaks up many things.
# # #
Paul Noel, 52, works as Software Engineer (as Contractor) for the US Army at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama. He has a vast experience base including education across a wide area of technical skills and sciences. He supplies technical expertise in all areas required for new products development associated with the US Army office he works in. He supplies extensive expertise in understanding the Oil and Gas industry as well.
While not an "expert" in the field, he knows nearly as much as most industry experts. The difference? He's not afraid to talk.
Born in Lynnwood Washington, he came to Huntsville Alabama, when his father moved to be part of NASA’s effort to put men on the moon. Neil Armstrong may have gotten the ride, but his father’s computers did the driving.
Paul is also a founding member of the New Energy Congress.
More: http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-8199-Breakthrough-Energy-Examiner~y2010m5d13-A-volcano-of-oil-erupting There are a number of documents linked at the end of this article that are worth perusal, some of them by the US government. We are in deep, deep trouble -- and by "we" is meant the whole world, because the effects of this disaster could spread far beyond the Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, this isn't only an environmental disaster. Its economic and social impacts on us are heavy and dangerous. And the worst of it is, there may be no end in sight. This disaster and its effects on the world, directly and indirectly, may prove to be too big and too damaging for us to defeat.
% unixronin
Breakthrough Energy Examiner
Sterling Allan
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-8199-Breakthrough-Energy-Examiner~y2010m5d13-A-volcano-of-oil-erupting
The following article was written by my associate, by Paul Noel with some editing and input from me.
New video showing largest hole from pipe 5 feet in diameter spewing oil and natural gas at ~4 barrels per second, along with analysis of the amount of oil on the surface, supports the estimates closer to 1 million barrels per day erupting from this hole BP popped in the ocean floor that contains trillions of barrels of oil and natural gas.
Mainstream reports are starting to discuss the fact that the oil slick rising from the oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico simply has to be a whole lot larger than first reported.
My first report on this stated that the total could easily be 5,000 barrels per day. I said this when the report was that only 1,000 barrels per day was the stated total. I was being cautious because I knew the total was much higher and I knew the public would not believe the real totals. Most people simply could not imagine a well of the size involved.
Now I will discuss the real facts that are known and what the educated guesses on the topic indicate. Prepare to get your jaw off of the floor. The facts are stunning.
Pre-Drilling Estimates and Assurances
BP estimated a spill of 165,000 barrels per day would not even reach land! That is what they told the US Government before they drilled the well. They had excellent science on their side, which you can begin to comprehend when you understand how oil reacts in salt water, as we will briefly discuss below.
The fact that the spill has reached land clearly states that the size of the spill is probably well above 200,000 barrels per day. Yes, that's BARRELS, not gallons. There are 42 gallons per barrel.
To get a full estimate we have to look at the process of sinking an oil slick and count money. A newly released video of the larger of the two leaks also contributes to our understanding of a minimum estimate of the flow erupting from this man-induced volcano of oil.
When An Oil Spill Originates on the Surface
Here is what happens when oil hits the salt water. If it is poured on top of the sea, oil begins to do several things. First some of it dissolves in the salt water. This dissolving is a bit limited but amounts to several percent per day of the spill exposure to the ocean. Some of the oil evaporates. This is several percent per day. This slows over time. As the oil dissolves and evaporates the parts that do this are primarily volatile fractions. These are things like Gasoline and other light components that go away pretty quickly. Once these are gone the remaining oil is heavy fraction crude. This begins to sink into the water very slowly, eventually falling to the ocean bottom over about 6 weeks. Typically this floats into an area where the shoreline is and embeds about 18 inches deep in the sand. This buried oil is not harmless. Just because the beach might appear on the surface to be clear, the sub-surface oil continues its toxic work. It locates precisely where the little sea creatures live, and it goes on killing them for about 10 years.
The reason a slick would carry farther than predicted is that the salt water is saturated with oil and the air around it is saturated, so the slick cannot dissipate. In the case of the BP Gulf leak, the size of the slick and the location of on shore oil say this slick represents at least 2 times the amount of oil BP estimated would never reach land -- or 330,000 barrels per day, minimum. This is an educated guess, borne out by aerial photos and the like.
When Oil Shoots Up Through 5000 Feet of Salt Water -- Fractionating Column
In the case of the BP underwater hole, the slick is not being poured on top of the water. It is coming up from the ocean bottom that is 1 mile deep at that point. That fact raises stunning questions on how big the well releases are.
Rising through 5000 feet of water, the oil is going through a process that the oil men call Fractionating. Literally the tremendous pressure and temperature issue are the equivalent of taking the oil and boiling it in a cracking tower 5000 feet high. The oil and Natural Gas change on their way up. The very light, easy-to-evaporate parts are all that is rising to the surface.
The heavy oil isn’t even getting to the top. That oil is losing its volatile fractions and is being dragged along with the rising column into the surface water where it is probably distributing as tar balls that are not being skimmed up or burned or otherwise dispersed.
In fact the chemicals added at the well head to disburse the oil, speed this process up. This oil is mixed into the water for the top 250 feet or so. Salinity and temperature issues probably keep this oil from ever reaching the very top of the water. The exact behavior here will not be known until studies are published some years from now. This is the first time humans have encountered a deep ocean leak of this magnitude. We're in uncharted territory here. Volume per volume, it is highly probable that due to this fractioning, this oil blowing into the ocean from a mile down is causing far more ecological trouble than a surface spill of similar size.
It is also certain that the slick volume on the surface is substantially lower than the rising column of oil. This is a key point to bear in mind. Because of this fractioning, what you see from the air on the surface of the water represents maybe just 20% of the volume of the various types of oil in that area. And we're talking an area the size of Maryland (10,000+ square miles) that is on the surface. The remaining 80% is under the surface; and all of it is highly toxic to the living organisms encountered.
All of this brings into serious question the volumes of oil rising. Every factor suggests massively higher numbers than what has been commonly reported.
Video of Slick
Here is a video that Alabama resident John Wathen shot as a volunteer pilot flew him over the area where the Deepwater Horizon oil rig sank. He said, "It's not a leak, it's a volcano spewing oil."
Click to viewAs we watch this, and see other photos and videos from the air and ground/sea level, we can agree with Wathen's comment: "The Gulf appears to be bleeding," which is chilling, considering the prophecy in Revelation 8:8: "The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze [appearance of the burning rig and slick], was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed." Most ships cannot travel through oil-infested waters without damage, any more than jets can fly through volcanic ash-infested airways.
Budgeting an Oil Rig
There is also another factor that says that the numbers are vastly higher than published to date. That is money. The BP investment in this well is very high -- close to a billion dollars. They must earn over $5,000,000 a day off of the well in order to pay back their investment. (That was before the explosion, and doesn't count the cleanup costs, etc)
They were, until the well blew, extremely happy with the well. In fact, on the day of the explosions, executives were on board celebrating the well's success.
This well had to produce over 60,000 barrels per day in order to break even. Shocking as it seems, this well would have been closed in and disposed of had it produced a minor total like 20,000 barrels per day. That would have been a “Dry Hole”! It wouldn’t have paid for the pipes to bring the oil to market. The fact that BP management was aboard the rig and very happy, celebrating, just prior to the explosion says the well probably produces more than 200,000 barrels per day. It might well have produced 500,000 or more. Royalties to the US Government multiply the numbers for break even by about 2:1 so 500,000 barrels per day is very realistic. And that is what they would have been celebrating while things were under control.
With this in mind, remember that this well is running wild. A wild well produces far more than a well during normal production. This is why it is so dangerous. The conclusions for how much is coming up are simply unbelievable.
Natural Gas
The Natural Gas emissions are stunning as well. As you watch the film remember the pipe is 5 feet in diameter.
The Natural Gas doesn't just bubble to the top of the ocean and release into the air. It is absorbed into the water, like air is absorbed, and actually creates oxygen depletion. Hence, the emission of natural gas of these volumes into the sea is producing a significant area of Oxygen depleted water in the Gulf of Mexico which may be very large threat to fisheries and other wildlife in the area.
Never forget this point. The spill was “Impossible” by the view of the oil men prior to this. The biggest cost of the spill cleanup is being borne by the US Armed Forces such as the National Guard etc. None of these costs will ever be paid by BP. These costs will appear in taxes not in the price of oil. Alternative Oil is vastly cheaper and safer than this.
Video from Largest Leak
Having just seen (as I write) the film of the larger of the two leaks under sea, I can say with my trained eye that the volume coming out of the hole is in the order of 4 barrels per second (around 350,000 barrels per day).
As you look at this, it might seem like a small hole, and a small amount of oil. But bear in mind that the diameter of the pipe is 5 feet -- five feet wide! Those deep sea drilling rigs don't make small diameter holes like you might be used to seeing on land. Some of those huge drilling rigs, which make an aircraft carrier look like a toy boat in comparison, put down huge pipe. The rig that is on site now, Development-Driller-III, which is drilling a relief hole to reduce pressure from the hole dug by Deepwater Horizon, has a torque (drill twisting) rating of 78,450 ft-lbs. You who know torque will appreciate how huge that is. Yes, the hole opening is 5 feet in diameter, spewing approximately 4 barrels each second.
What Could Yet Come
This is not a system in stasis. This is an out of control volcano of oil spewing up with 70,000 psi behind it, from a reservoir nearly the size of the Gulf, with an estimated trillions of barrels of oil and gas tucked away. It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas.
What we are seeing now could be small compared to what may yet unfold if things break apart, as they can do under such circumstances. If this thing blew, it could be like the Yellowstone Caldera, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it.
That would be an extinction event.
It is not likely to happen, but it is within the realm of possibilities.
That's the kind of stuff we're playing with here.
When we humans go tinkering around with this stuff, it is like the movie of men flying space ships to asteroids and setting off nuclear bombs to deflect them from hitting earth. Except in this case, setting off a nuclear bomb on top of a veritable volcano spewing oil from what is presently a relatively small hole in order to shut if off, doesn't seem like a very good idea.
Postscript
There is no way to get the size of this in mind. It is just too big to imagine. The slick is now as large as Maryland and growing. It will grow probably for 90 days or more. Even if contained tomorrow it will set the record for biggest in history.
Here is a fairly safe estimate of the economic damage to tourism, fisheries and the like in 3 US states. (AL, MS, LA) Over the next 10 years this will cost about $1 Trillion Dollars. BP will not pay this. This does not count damage to ports and trade generally. There is no way out now. What do Texas and Florida get? How about the east US Coast or even parts of Mexico? Does this go all the way damaging England and the northern EU? It certainly will not stop with just 3 states.
Imagine how much alternative energy work that would have produced. Now it is all waste. Now we must do it while it is hard. Imagine how easy it would have been a year or two ago when it was argued it was too expensive.
We have to turn around from this way and never look back. Freedom, prosperity and happiness will not be found in that eruption of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.
Some might think that I am against the oil industry. Actually I view them [rig workers, not execs] as some of the bravest most heroic people we have ever seen on earth. I have to say this plainly. I am in awe of many of the things they accomplish.
I just know that we must get a brighter future. This one has no hope.
Epilogue
The Transocean rig drilling right now to relieve the well is drilling a 28 inch well ASAP. The just spudded in the well and are already a mile down. (Ref.)
They are trying a smaller well to go fast. It isn't 21 inches per the report you are hearing from others. The numbers on the Transocean rig are for the drill pipe size. The inside hole of the drill pipe is 18 inches and the outside is 21. The platform numbers are for a 60.5 inch drill platform opening. This is what fits the outer casing. It is used to torque the casing down into the well. The platform is used at the turntable to torque the well drill pipe.
I have seen lots of these wells. They are really 5 feet in diameter. It sort of shakes you up to see something that big.
http://www.gulf-shores-alabama.net/gulf-mexico-mobile-ferry-dauphin-island.html
You want to see some look at the pictures. That platform I have been right there around it several times. The ferry is fun. Everything I described is on the Gulf High Island 2 rig and some associated production platforms. This is very old technology dating from the late 1970's and early 1980's. The oilfield service launch here is 250 feet long and looks like a tub toy next to the rigs. (in the pictures for the ferry) I have similar pictures. The field came into production about 1992 or so. I have been around the launch and where it docks.
They drill these wells often decades before they use them.
We have about 9,000 square miles of oil out there. My only question to doubters is how big of a house has to fall on you. The stuff is really big out there. When one compares this to Exxon Valdez it is important to understand that this is an open water spill with wave action to disrupt it. The water temperature is in the 80 degree range causing much more rapid degrading of the oil than in Prince William Sound. There have been massive efforts using disbursant compounds in this spill. There are many many factors that are different. This is light crude rather than heavy crude. It reacts quite differently.
The real question should be why people want to believe so low numbers. A spill of 10,000 Gallons is 328 barrels and is just one tanker delivery truck. Your local gasoline station can drain one dry in a few minutes with gravity. They claimed the spill was equal to 3 of these early on. You could have lost that much oil in a few waves out there. Increasing that to 15 a day still is so trivial that it would have been of no concern. You could stop up such a leak with nothing. It wouldn't be anything to stop a leak of 5,000 barrels a day. That is a trivial oil well size. 5,000 barrels a day is about equal to spilling one tanker truck every hour and 15 minutes. That would be a simple chore to shut off. Please get your head on here. Your local gasoline station unloads a tanker truck at about 5 times that rate. River barges hold like 5,000 barrels of oil. Sink one and it makes a modest slick in the Mississippi river.
Spilling that much crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico off shore like this would never even come to mind at 5,000 barrels per day. BP was entirely right in their report to the Minerals Management Service that 165,000 Barrels Per day would never even reach land. This slick is coming ashore now. The well is belching about 300,000 barrels to 400,000 barrels per day. That is beyond doubt.
The reason there was no safety plan has many reasons but one of these was the company figured it was impossible to bring ashore a slick from that far away. The Gulf of Mexico is vast. It soaks up many things.
# # #
Paul Noel, 52, works as Software Engineer (as Contractor) for the US Army at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama. He has a vast experience base including education across a wide area of technical skills and sciences. He supplies technical expertise in all areas required for new products development associated with the US Army office he works in. He supplies extensive expertise in understanding the Oil and Gas industry as well.
While not an "expert" in the field, he knows nearly as much as most industry experts. The difference? He's not afraid to talk.
Born in Lynnwood Washington, he came to Huntsville Alabama, when his father moved to be part of NASA’s effort to put men on the moon. Neil Armstrong may have gotten the ride, but his father’s computers did the driving.
Paul is also a founding member of the New Energy Congress.
More: http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-8199-Breakthrough-Energy-Examiner~y2010m5d13-A-volcano-of-oil-erupting There are a number of documents linked at the end of this article that are worth perusal, some of them by the US government. We are in deep, deep trouble -- and by "we" is meant the whole world, because the effects of this disaster could spread far beyond the Gulf of Mexico. Furthermore, this isn't only an environmental disaster. Its economic and social impacts on us are heavy and dangerous. And the worst of it is, there may be no end in sight. This disaster and its effects on the world, directly and indirectly, may prove to be too big and too damaging for us to defeat.
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