I foresee interesting times: unintended consequences

Mar 03, 2010 00:53

More and more people in this country are screaming for revolution, for very understandable reasons. I don't blame them. But when revolution finally does occur -- and you can bet it will, and soon -- its ultimate outcome is not something that can be predicted ahead of time.

People-systems are inherently chaotic, in a mathematical sense, in the same way that a given volume of molecules of a gas or the electrons in the orbitals of an atom are inherently chaotic: the behavior of individual entities within any of these systems isn't predictable, though that of the systems overall has some degree of predictability. Think Isaac Asimov's Foundation series of novels (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_series) and you've got it. And due to their very nature, revolutions are far more unpredictable than more-or-less stable sociopolitical systems, because of which the unpredictability of the evolution and outcomes of the former is orders of magnitude greater than that of the latter.

Which means that once a revolt, rebellion, or revolution begins, because it is a dynamic people-system, the behavior of both the individuals that take part in it and that of others who are affected in any way by it isn't predictable, and that therefore the outcome of such a sociopolitical upheaval isn't, either. In other words, there will, very likely, be massively unhappy consequences of the coming upheaval in this country, and it is the part of wisdom to prepare for all contingencies insofar as is possible, especially if you have dependents.

history, wisdom, politics

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