Representin'
Today in Psych class, my professor put on a display of ESP.
Let me begin by saying: I do not believe in ESP, nor did I prior to his display. I believe strongly in coincidences and probability.
Also: There are over 1,300 people in my class, which is held in the largest auditorium on campus.
So, the professor put up on the screen a computerized card generator. It would display an unturned card, with three blank boxes next to it. He had the entire audience stand up. Then it went like this:
"Raise your hand if you think this card is black." Half the audience raises hands. I raise my hand. "How many think it's red?" Other half the audience raises hands. Professor clicks the first box - it is black. Red people sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is a club." Half the remaining audience raises hands. "How many think it's a club?" Other half the audience raises hands. I raise my hand. Professor clicks the second box - it is spade. Club people sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is A 2 3 4 5." Some of the remaining audience raises hands. "How many think it's 6 7 8 9?" Some others in the audience raise hands. I raise my hand. "How many think it's 10 J Q K?" Some others in the audience raise hands. Professor clicks the third box - it is 6 7 8 9. Everyone but these people sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is 6." Some people raise hands. "7." Some others raise hands. "8." Some others raise hands. I raise my hand. "9." Some others raise hands. Professor reveals the card - it is Black Spade 8.
At this point, I am one of only a handful of the 1,300 people still standing.
Next card comes up.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is black." A few people raise hands. "Red." Others raise hands. I raise my hand. It is red. Others sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is a heart." A few people raise hands. "Diamond." Others raise hands. I raise my hand. It is diamond. Others sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is A 2 3 4 5." A few people raise hands. I raise my hand. "6 7 8 9." A few people raise hands. "10 J Q K." A few people raise hands. It is A 2 3 4 5. Others sit down.
Now, there are two other people standing besides me, in an auditorium of 1,300. I feel that the card is either A 2 or 3. I vote on it being 2. It turns out to be three. I sit down.
The display is narrowed down to one girl, who is pulled up on stage and given a mic. The professor goes on to telepathically recite a bunch of information about her, and she gets freaked out and so on.
After the display, the professor reveals that the card trick was rigged, and that girl was intentionally chosen to come up. I suspect that the professor was able to enter her votes into the program to reveal what she was guessing.
However.
The fact that I, guessing completely randomly, managed to remain in the top two (not counting the planted girl) out of 1,300 students is quite remarkable. To calculate the odds (and tell me if I do this wrong, because I have trouble with the maths):
.5 · .5 · .33 · .2 · .5 · .5 · .33 = .00136125 (~ 1/734)
I'd say those are pretty nice odds in my favor. Though, this probably means that having good odds in this trick will cause me to have bad odds in the getting-cancer department or something.
Let me begin by saying: I do not believe in ESP, nor did I prior to his display. I believe strongly in coincidences and probability.
Also: There are over 1,300 people in my class, which is held in the largest auditorium on campus.
So, the professor put up on the screen a computerized card generator. It would display an unturned card, with three blank boxes next to it. He had the entire audience stand up. Then it went like this:
"Raise your hand if you think this card is black." Half the audience raises hands. I raise my hand. "How many think it's red?" Other half the audience raises hands. Professor clicks the first box - it is black. Red people sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is a club." Half the remaining audience raises hands. "How many think it's a club?" Other half the audience raises hands. I raise my hand. Professor clicks the second box - it is spade. Club people sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is A 2 3 4 5." Some of the remaining audience raises hands. "How many think it's 6 7 8 9?" Some others in the audience raise hands. I raise my hand. "How many think it's 10 J Q K?" Some others in the audience raise hands. Professor clicks the third box - it is 6 7 8 9. Everyone but these people sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is 6." Some people raise hands. "7." Some others raise hands. "8." Some others raise hands. I raise my hand. "9." Some others raise hands. Professor reveals the card - it is Black Spade 8.
At this point, I am one of only a handful of the 1,300 people still standing.
Next card comes up.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is black." A few people raise hands. "Red." Others raise hands. I raise my hand. It is red. Others sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is a heart." A few people raise hands. "Diamond." Others raise hands. I raise my hand. It is diamond. Others sit down.
"Raise your hand if you think this card is A 2 3 4 5." A few people raise hands. I raise my hand. "6 7 8 9." A few people raise hands. "10 J Q K." A few people raise hands. It is A 2 3 4 5. Others sit down.
Now, there are two other people standing besides me, in an auditorium of 1,300. I feel that the card is either A 2 or 3. I vote on it being 2. It turns out to be three. I sit down.
The display is narrowed down to one girl, who is pulled up on stage and given a mic. The professor goes on to telepathically recite a bunch of information about her, and she gets freaked out and so on.
After the display, the professor reveals that the card trick was rigged, and that girl was intentionally chosen to come up. I suspect that the professor was able to enter her votes into the program to reveal what she was guessing.
However.
The fact that I, guessing completely randomly, managed to remain in the top two (not counting the planted girl) out of 1,300 students is quite remarkable. To calculate the odds (and tell me if I do this wrong, because I have trouble with the maths):
.5 · .5 · .33 · .2 · .5 · .5 · .33 = .00136125 (~ 1/734)
I'd say those are pretty nice odds in my favor. Though, this probably means that having good odds in this trick will cause me to have bad odds in the getting-cancer department or something.